“Japan’s Thatcher”: How Takaiichi’s Rise Shapes Tokyo’s Foreign Policy

In an unprecedented political shift in modern Japanese history, the House of Representatives elected Sanae Takaiichi as Japan’s first female prime minister on October 21, 2025, opening a new chapter in the nation’s political life—not only in terms of gender, but also in terms of the staunchly conservative and nationalist ideology embodied by this controversial figure.

For the first time, a woman has taken the reins of Japan—not as an advocate for equality or reform, but as the political heir of the right-wing nationalist camp inspired by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Takaiichi believes that Japan’s postwar pacifist constitution, imposed by the United States after World War II, must be revised. She calls for strengthening Japan’s military capabilities and holds traditional views on women and society. These positions have led many observers to dub her “Japan’s Thatcher” or “the Japanese Iron Lady.” Yet, she is perhaps more accurately described as the new voice of Abe’s old spirit—a voice of ideological rigidity that sees “Japanese greatness” as a legacy to be reclaimed through willpower rather than historical apology.

A Fragile Alliance

Since Japan’s defeat in World War II, the country has lived under the shadow of that loss. The Americans wrote its pacifist constitution, neutralized its military through Article 9, and tied its economy to the industrial wheel of the West. Yet beneath the surface lay a deep, unspoken desire to “restore national pride.”

Over the decades, as the collective memory of Hiroshima and Nagasaki faded, Japan’s nationalist current grew stronger—until Shinzo Abe gave it a clear ideological identity: a strong, armed, and unapologetic Japan.

Now, Takaiichi returns to complete what her political mentor began. She views Japan’s historical defeat not as a burden, but as a motivation for revival. To her, Japan has paid enough for its past, and the time has come to break free from its moral and military restraints.

Takaiichi’s ascent to power, however, was anything but a smooth transition. It followed a “political earthquake” within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which suffered one of its worst defeats since its founding in 1955 during the July elections, following financial scandals and collapsing popularity. Former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned after just a year in office, leaving behind a dangerous political vacuum.

That vacuum was filled only after Takaiichi struck a last-minute deal with the right-wing populist Japan Innovation Party (Ishin no Kai), based in Osaka—Japan’s second-largest city—which became the LDP’s new coalition partner following the collapse of its decades-long alliance with the centrist Komeito Buddhist Party. Komeito withdrew in protest over corruption scandals and the LDP’s drift toward hardline nationalism.

With that breakup, Tokyo lost one of the key pillars that had long ensured political stability, entering instead an era of fragile alliances and delicate parliamentary maneuvering.

In many ways, this Japanese moment mirrors Europe’s own political shifts, where centrist coalitions have collapsed and populist movements have risen to fill the void with rhetoric of identity and nationalism. Thus, Takaiichi’s victory is not an isolated domestic event, but part of the global right-wing resurgence reshaping how nations define democracy, security, and national identity. Japan—home to the world’s third-largest economy, a technological powerhouse, and a key strategic player in Asia—is now witnessing a decisive shift from moderate conservatism to overt nationalism.

Identity Struggles

Takaiichi’s rise reflects Japan’s ongoing struggle over its national identity. A younger generation embraces equality, freedom, environmental responsibility, immigration, and cultural openness. In contrast, an older generation longs for order, discipline, and strict national identity.

Takaiichi represents the latter. She skillfully appeals to them with the language of “duty,” “honor,” and “pure Japanese identity.” Yet she faces a real challenge in a society increasingly weary of exclusionary rhetoric. Modern Japan is not the Japan of Emperor Hirohito—it is a diverse society shaped by the Internet and globalization.

Her opposition to gender equality, separate spousal surnames, and same-sex marriage highlights a growing gap between the government’s nationalist discourse and Japan’s changing social reality. This divide could deepen into an internal identity conflict, similar to those seen in Western societies amid the rise of populist right-wing movements.

Foreign Policy Implications

Takaiichi’s premiership is expected to bring notable changes to Tokyo’s foreign policy, evident across several key areas:

1. Alignment with Washington

Takaiichi’s rise cannot be understood apart from the United States. Since World War II, Japan has served as Washington’s model for postwar Asia—a capitalist economy, a democratic system, and a stable security ally. The rise of Japan’s nationalist right does not alarm Washington; indeed, some conservative circles welcome it.

At a moment when Donald Trump has returned to the White House, Takaiichi appears to be his ideal partner in East Asia. Both are right-wing conservatives who view China as a strategic adversary to be contained. The coming period is therefore likely to see deeper alignment between Tokyo and Washington, centered on Japan’s rearmament and greater responsibility for regional security vis-à-vis Beijing and Pyongyang.

Yet this partnership carries a profound paradox: the more Japan asserts its nationalist independence, the more it becomes strategically dependent on Washington. It is the old dilemma no Japanese leader has resolved—how to be a sovereign nation while remaining under the U.S. security umbrella.

2. Asian Polarization

Takaiichi’s premiership comes amid regional turmoil. China continues asserting its economic and military dominance in Asia; North Korea is advancing its missile and nuclear programs; and Taiwan sits at the heart of global tensions. In this context, Takaiichi’s leadership signals a renewed arms race in East Asia.

Since her days as Minister of Economic Security, she has advocated raising defense spending above 2% of GDP and loosening restrictions on Japan’s overseas military engagement. These policies put Japan on a path of escalation, reviving fears among neighbors who still remember Imperial Japan’s aggression.

As a result, China, South Korea, and North Korea may find themselves united in wary opposition, while the region polarizes into two camps: one led by China and Russia, the other anchored by Washington and Tokyo.

Japan’s domestic politics, therefore, have global significance—they are part of the broader strategic realignment between East and West.

3. Dual Effects in the Middle East

On the surface, Japan does not appear central to Middle Eastern affairs. Yet in reality, it is a major investor in energy and infrastructure projects, and a key trading partner for Gulf states and Egypt. Thus, Takaiichi’s rise should be read strategically by Arab governments.

Under her leadership, Japan will likely be more nationalist but also more dependent on stable economic partners.

On one hand, this could push Tokyo to strengthen ties with U.S.-aligned Middle Eastern nations, merging economic cooperation with geopolitical alignment. Her economic team may expand Japanese investments in renewable energy, maritime projects, and cybersecurity—especially with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt—under a vision of long-term energy independence.

On the other hand, Takaiichi’s Japan may not be as flexible or diplomatic as previous administrations. She is expected to prioritize national interests above international commitments and to view foreign policy primarily through the lens of hard national security rather than balanced cooperation. In practice, her rigid nationalism may result in diplomatic caution and reduced engagement in humanitarian or development-oriented initiatives across the turbulent Middle East.

Where Is Japan Headed?

Observers today are less concerned with whether Takaiichi can succeed as Japan’s first female prime minister than with how long she can stay in power. Her government stands on a shaky coalition with a small right-wing party, relies on a divided parliament, and governs a society still hesitant about conservative female leadership. She also faces a minefield of challenges: a struggling economy, rising prices, fragile alliances, and a deeply divided society—between those who long for “old Japan” and those who see that nostalgia as political suicide in an unforgiving modern world.

Yet the symbolism of her rise may outlast her administration. Japan has entered a new phase of experimenting with female-led nationalism, a development that will reopen fundamental questions:

• Can Japan rearm without losing its pacifist soul?
• Can Tokyo reclaim its pride without awakening Asia’s historical ghosts?
• Will nationalism heal Japan’s insecurities—or wound it anew?

Ultimately, Japan’s transformation under Takaiichi cannot be viewed in isolation. The right-wing wave now stretches from Washington to Rome, from Budapest to Tokyo, driven by the politics of fear, identity, and nostalgia for “national greatness.” Takaiichi is not an exception but a new face of this global movement—a woman speaking for a restless nation searching for itself in a turbulent world.

Despite being an island geographically, Japan is no political island. Every move Tokyo makes will echo in Beijing, Washington, and perhaps Arab capitals as well. Major shifts in one corner of the world inevitably reshape the balance in others.

In conclusion, Takaiichi’s rise is more than a change of leadership—it marks the birth of a new era, one that redefines the relationship between women and power, between Japan and its past, and between East Asia and the world. It is a moment distinctly Japanese in form, yet fundamentally part of a broader global transformation that is redrawing both the map of thought and the landscape of politics under the rising tide of the modern right.