The results of the U.S. presidential election were surprising, particularly regarding the significant margin between the candidates (Harris and Trump). It seems that recent opinion polls have been misleading, as the discrepancy between those polls and actual results indicates a difference of over 40% on average, especially with the Republicans securing a majority in both houses of the legislature.
It appears that the first to celebrate Trump’s victory is Russian President Putin and his intelligence agencies, followed by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. On the other hand, the most concerned individuals about this outcome include Ukrainian President Zelensky, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and some leaders of European Union countries, with Iran also positioned among this group.
Trump’s merchant culture and excessive pragmatism in his governing philosophy form the basis for explaining the varying reactions to his success. He assigns little value to principles, ethics, values, and international law, only when they provide beneficial outcomes. Therefore, he perceives the following:
- Trump does not view NATO positively; he sees it as an economic burden since the alliance relies on American defense spending, while major European nations did not heed his repeated calls during his first presidency and electoral campaigns to increase their military spending to 3%. Most of these countries spend less than 2%, which suggests we might witness a significant American-European conflict regarding this issue.
- Trump believes that American spending on Ukraine nearly exceeds the total European contributions, a situation he finds illogical. Consequently, he feels there is a need to reconsider the uniqueness of America’s burden in this context.
- The significant trade deficit between the United States and China, favoring China, is troubling for Trump. Therefore, he will likely aim to reduce this deficit by constricting Chinese trade and may provoke a Taiwanese conflict if necessary, to pull China toward lower economic growth rates while simultaneously increasing its defense spending.
- It seems he will exploit Iranian political movements to deepen Gulf anxieties, aiming to manipulate Gulf Arab regimes that he has previously warned that should they abandon them, Iranian forces could be in their capitals within minutes. This indicates a need for these Gulf countries to contribute to the financial circles of the American military-industrial complex.
- I perceive that Egypt is the least prioritized country by Trump; he only views it as a poor nation surrounded by turmoil in Libya, Sudan, Gaza, and the Red Sea, thus seeing it as a burden rather than a supporter. I doubt it will gain his attention unless something unforeseen occurs there.
- Trump fully realizes that the Arab bloc is in a position of being “neither here nor there,” which further diminishes his regard for Arab rights. Just as he disregarded international law by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s eternal capital and relocating the U.S. embassy there, he sees no necessity in establishing an independent Palestinian state. He will not need any Jewish support in the future since he won’t be competing for any future office. He knows that Israel also represents a burden, much like Ukraine, but he will leverage Israel to extort Arabs commercially, for investments, weapons purchases, and to manipulate oil prices according to what he deems appropriate. I wouldn’t be surprised if he capitalizes on the Iranian-Israeli conflict for his gains.
While most American presidents do not differ significantly in the substance of their policies from Trump, he stands out in that he doesn’t cloak himself in the guise of human rights and democracy. The man moves about unapologetically, stripped of this false mantle; he is honest in his pragmatism, no matter how dirty it may be.
