How Does the Sino-Indonesian Rapprochement Affect the Indo-Pacific Landscape?
Overview:
On August 13, 2024, defense and foreign affairs officials from China and Indonesia held talks in a complex context. Despite the growing closeness between the two countries in recent years, several contentious issues remain, including maritime boundary delineation, the increasing trade deficit favoring China, and Indonesia’s concerns over potential Western sanctions due to its cooperation with China.
The discussions addressed several issues, including Taiwan and the South China Sea. Indonesia reaffirmed its commitment to the One-China principle and called for the peaceful resolution of maritime disputes in the South China Sea through negotiations. Both parties agreed to uphold the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, support multilateralism, and protect an open and inclusive regional structure. However, several factors may influence the development of relations between the two countries, such as the Western allies’ reactions, particularly the United States, and the success of both sides in building mutual trust by translating agreements into tangible actions, especially regarding maritime boundary delineation.
Complex Context:
This round of ministerial dialogue takes place against the backdrop of several determinants and factors, summarized as follows:
Previous Talks: This round is part of a series of bilateral dialogues initiated by China with several countries since 2023. Earlier this year, China held other talks with Indonesia on military and defense cooperation. In mid-April, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Jakarta to meet then-Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi. He also held a closed meeting with then-Defense Minister (now President) Prabowo Subianto to enhance cooperation in military training and defense industries. Additionally, President Subianto’s first overseas visit after his election was to China, where he met President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.
Underlying Economic and Political Tensions: Despite the growing closeness in bilateral relations, especially with President Subianto in power, several unresolved issues persist, particularly in economic relations. Although China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner, concerns remain, such as the trade deficit, which reached $1.7 billion in favor of China in July 2024, compared to $635.7 million last year. Chinese investments and debts are seen as a threat, draining Indonesia’s resources and trapping it in debt through major Chinese projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, such as the railway line. The economic rapprochement also raises fears of potential harm to Indonesia’s economy from Western trade wars, particularly given Indonesia’s role in the Chinese electric vehicle industry by supplying nickel to Beijing.
Politically and militarily, tensions in the South China Sea pose a continuous threat to bilateral relations. A dispute over the delineation of maritime boundaries regarding Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone has led the latter to take steps to counter the growing Chinese threat, including expanding military bases on the disputed Natuna Islands (Riau). However, officially, this conflict has not been publicly articulated, with efforts made to manage it behind closed doors, unlike China’s maritime disputes with other regional countries.
Indonesian Rapprochement with the United States: Despite Indonesia’s military talks with China, this does not indicate an alliance with China or hostility towards the U.S. Indonesia held similar bilateral talks with the United States for the first time last October in Washington, where defense and foreign affairs officials from both countries agreed to elevate cooperative relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership across various sectors. They committed to deepening defense cooperation, particularly in maritime security, military medicine, peacekeeping, professional military education, and bilateral and multilateral military exercises, as well as enhancing economic and regional climate cooperation.
Limited Military Relations: Historically, Sino-Indonesian military cooperation has not been extensive due to maritime tensions and Indonesia’s reliance on the West and the United States for arms and military training, making this historical legacy an obstacle that needs to be overcome. However, the two sides have already begun to address this, with Indonesia becoming one of China’s top ten diplomatic military partners between 2003 and 2016, according to estimates from the U.S. National Defense University in 2017. Yet, this cooperation still requires more qualitative and quantitative enhancement. Indonesia receives only secondary weapons and equipment from China, and between 2003 and 2022, Indonesia conducted four joint military exercises with China compared to more than 100 with the United States during the same period.
Details of the Ministerial Dialogue and Its Outcomes:
This round of ministerial talks covered many topics and resulted in agreement on several issues, summarized as follows:
Participants: The Chinese delegation included Deputy Foreign Minister Sun Weidong and Deputy Director of the International Military Cooperation Office of the Central Military Commission Zhang Baojun. The Indonesian side was represented by Director-General for Asia-Pacific and African Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Abdul Kadir Jailani and Secretary-General of the Directorate General of Defense Strategy Brigadier General Oktahiri Ramsay.
Reasons for the Meeting: The talks were held based on the outcomes of a memorandum of understanding signed during former Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s visit to Beijing in October 2023.
Discussion Topics: The talks primarily involved exchanging views on bilateral relations, especially strategic cooperation in diplomacy and defense. Both sides praised the development of relations and expressed readiness to enhance bilateral communication, coordination, and political and security cooperation, moving towards strengthening the prospects of a shared future.
Dialogue on Concerns and Disputes: The discussions addressed the Taiwan issue and the South China Sea, with Indonesia reaffirming its commitment to the One-China principle and advocating for the peaceful resolution of maritime disputes in the South China Sea through negotiations. Both parties agreed to adhere to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, support multilateralism, and protect an open and inclusive regional structure while promoting global governance to contribute to peace, stability, cooperation, and development at the regional and global levels.
The talks also covered the high-speed railway project, agreeing to make it a model of cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, paving the way for other projects like the Comprehensive Regional Economic Corridor. They also agreed to expand cooperation in digital economy, green development, improving living standards, poverty alleviation, and maritime cooperation.
International Conflicts and Issues: The two sides discussed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and several other international and regional issues of mutual concern. Indonesia expressed appreciation for China’s efforts to achieve reconciliation and unity among the Palestinian people, expressing readiness to cooperate in implementing the Beijing Declaration.
Both sides confirmed their support for the vision of comprehensive and inclusive security. China expressed willingness to work with Indonesia to enhance dialogue, communication, coordination, and cooperation on implementing China’s three major initiatives: the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative.
Aspirations for Deepening Future Cooperation: Both sides viewed the current talks as a new chapter in the comprehensive partnership between the two countries, a preparatory step for the next meeting next year. They agreed to cooperate on building diplomats’ capacities, joint military training, and enhancing regional security and stability, combating terrorism, and addressing transnational crimes.
Implications and Potential Consequences:
Several implications can be drawn from this round of ministerial talks, besides confirming the positive understanding and relations, summarized as follows:
Securing Indonesian Interests Against Regional Movements: Indonesia’s concern about security deterioration in the South China Sea, particularly from the Philippines, amid its rapprochement with the United States, which could be seen as a threat to ASEAN’s unity. This polarization could force Indonesia and other countries into a trap of competition among international powers vying for influence in the region, which Jakarta seeks to avoid.
Opening More Avenues for Regional Understanding: Some Chinese estimates suggest that this bilateral dialogue could serve as a model for regional countries with tense relations and disputes with China, potentially reducing risks in the South China Sea, resolving conflicts peacefully, and building mutual trust. Furthermore, the talks emphasized the importance of regional frameworks like ASEAN, encouraging reliance on these cooperative frameworks to mitigate the escalating regional tensions.
Pragmatic Flexibility and Non-Alignment: These talks demonstrate the region’s actors’ ability to exercise flexibility and maintain neutrality amid competing powers. Indonesia’s participation in strategic dialogue with China did not prevent its involvement in upcoming joint military exercises (Super Garuda Shield) led by the United States from August 26 to September 5, reinforcing its neutral stance on regional competition between the United States and China.
Potential Constraints: Despite Indonesia’s aspiration to deepen bilateral military cooperation, and with its military preparing for joint exercises with China possibly starting next year, several constraints may limit this cooperation. Expanding coordination and collaboration to include combat operations and interoperability may provoke Indonesia’s traditional military allies, particularly the United States. Indonesia may also face restrictions on accessing advanced weapons from traditional allies like South Korea, France, and Japan.
Additionally, issues of trust and the ongoing maritime disputes between the two countries could escalate into a broader geopolitical conflict, especially given China’s approach in the South China Sea. These concerns may hinder the deepening of information and intelligence sharing, negatively impacting cooperation in non-traditional security areas.
U.S. Response to China’s Moves: U.S. assessments of China’s diplomatic efforts view them as attempts to deepen regional polarization in the Asia-Pacific region, similar to the Cold War, by seeking to establish a China-dominated regional order. China, however, denies these accusations, arguing that its actions aim to support regional peace and stability through diplomatic efforts to defuse conflicts and tensions. China contends that U.S. actions, seeking to consolidate its dominance, contribute to global tensions, polarization, and conflicts.
In conclusion, Indonesia’s pragmatic approach to balancing its interests with both the U.S. and China reflects the broader strategies of many regional powers in the Asia-Pacific, now the epicenter of international competition. These countries’ alliances have become flexible and somewhat contradictory. However, Indonesia’s ambition to move from commercial and economic partnership with China to military cooperation remains risky, constrained by several factors that could limit the future prospects of this cooperation, especially under its neutral policy.
