In 2024, German author Wolfgang Hearn published a book titled “The Technological War Between China and the United States and the European Position on Competition,” discussing the historical role of these major powers in supporting technological progress. The book highlights the critical technological areas they are competing over, particularly quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, and addresses the risks of this conflict and the feasibility of cooperation among powers in the technological field.
At the beginning, the book tracks the knowledge and technological contributions of the United States, China, and Europe. It points out that Washington laid the foundation for modern global technological development with the second industrial revolution driven by the discovery of electricity and the third industrial revolution marked by the advent of computers. This was followed by innovations such as the internet and electronic chips.
Technological Contributions
A report published by the Institute for the Future of Advanced Studies and Research notes that American success is attributed to the availability of knowledge elements (universities and research institutions) and capital. China historically contributed to technological development during the period from 960 to 1279 AD through the invention of paper, printing, gunpowder, and the magnetic compass. This was followed by a rapid decline due to factors such as the Opium Wars, the end of the empire, and civil wars, until China intensified its efforts for a slow recovery starting in 1978, and then saw significant growth in the past two decades.
Europe, for its part, experienced the first industrial revolution a hundred years ago and made strides in natural sciences and medicine at that time. However, there is a noticeable decline in several technological areas when compared to Beijing and Washington. This decline has affected leading European industries, such as the automotive industry, where leading companies like Volkswagen lag in areas like autonomous and automated driving.
The book outlines several technological areas where conflicts between major powers are evident, as follows:
Artificial Intelligence: AI applications aim to simulate human thought patterns and data processing, enabling complex task performance. The United States supports companies in this field, resulting in the launch of “ChatGPT” in 2022, which provides high-quality and accurate answers on various topics. In contrast, China banned this application and created a similar one called “Ernie Bot,” launched in 2023. European efforts to invest in AI have been disappointing; German Research Minister presented a plan to invest about 1.6 billion euros by 2025 in this field.
Electronic Chips: Semiconductors or electronic chips are used in the production of various low and high-tech devices, from washing machines to rockets. This American invention, emerging in the 1950s, is now dominated by two companies: Samsung in South Korea and TSMC in Taiwan. Beijing, Washington, and Europe cannot compete with them, at least in the near term.
Digital Transformation: Digital transformation aims to incorporate technological advancements into business and social processes. Washington and Beijing dominate this field, with the former being the primary creator of the four internet giants—Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon—while the latter has contributed three major competitors—Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent. Europe, meanwhile, lags behind with leading companies like Zalando and Otto.
Quantum Computing and Quantum Theory: Quantum computing combines disciplines like computer science, physics, and mathematics using quantum theory for advanced data processing that ordinary computers cannot achieve with the same speed and accuracy. This leads to breakthroughs in various fields, such as medicine, by enabling affordable diagnosis and treatment of diseases like Alzheimer’s, epilepsy, and Parkinson’s. It also changes war strategies by creating radar based on quantum technologies capable of tracking and identifying enemy locations. China leads in investing in this new technology, with investments reaching $15.3 billion in 2022, followed by Europe with $7.2 billion and the United States with $3.7 billion.
Energy Generation: Countries seek to use technology to provide promising and safe ways to generate energy, such as nuclear fusion (creating an artificial sun) by combining two light atomic nuclei from hydrogen isotopes like deuterium and tritium to produce a heavier atomic nucleus, helium, similar to the sun’s process. This fusion releases four times the energy produced by nuclear fission. However, there are obstacles to implementing this technology, such as the need for extremely high temperatures up to 100 million degrees Celsius to avoid greenhouse gas emissions or long-lived radioactive waste.
Although fusion energy might not be feasible in the near future until 2050, countries are investing heavily in this technology. China has developed several nuclear fusion reactors, including the advanced experimental “Tokamak,” designed to reach temperatures of 120 million degrees Celsius in 2022. The United States also supports related research and partnerships, as seen in the collaboration with Japan this year to accelerate nuclear fusion development. Europe is also making notable efforts through the European-Japanese joint project “JT-60SA” in 2022.
Biotechnology and Medicine: This involves technological applications related to digital healthcare, genetic foods, and gene editing (CRISPR), which refers to a technique used to cut and modify DNA in a targeted manner. It can add, remove, or disable genes in plants, animals, or humans, raising ethical concerns, especially when applied to humans.
Currently, there are no restrictive laws regulating the use of this technology in the United States and China; China uses it in agriculture to ensure genetic food production and meet its food needs, while the United States approved the use of the first CRISPR-based treatment for sickle cell anemia late last year. Europe, however, faces strict legal regulations on this technology according to the European Court of Justice ruling in 2018.
Space Travel: The United States, China, and Russia have shown special interest in space by sending missions and spaceflights to the Moon and Mars. However, competition has now narrowed to Washington and Beijing due to Moscow’s financial crises. The technological drive for both Washington and Beijing is supported by economic incentives in this field, such as the need for space mining and resource discovery. Europe, however, currently lacks an ambitious and practical space exploration policy.
Patents and Human Element: The United States leads in this field with its universities, research centers, and capital. China filed about 3 million patents in 2023, of which only 10 percent were accepted. Germany is a leading European power in patents but has recently seen a decline, according to the German government’s report on future research and innovation strategy.
Areas of Technological Warfare
Since the human element is crucial in technological development and patent registration, major powers adopt various methods to prepare the workforce, especially in mathematics, computer science, natural sciences, and technology. However, there is a massive gap between supply and demand. China has two competitive advantages: producing a large number of graduates annually and actively sending students and scientists abroad for study and training, then calling them back when needed.
According to the book, the technological conflict among major powers cannot be confined to the mentioned areas; other promising fields exist. In the military domain, it is possible to manufacture combat drones and autonomous military robots that make decisions independently on the battlefield. Urbanly, smart cities relying on the Internet of Things can perform tasks with speed and accuracy, such as facilitating traffic, optimizing energy use, and monitoring environmental risks.
The author emphasizes the essential need for technological cooperation between China, the United States, and Europe, especially given the current global challenges of climate change, energy crises, and migration. Continued technological warfare could lead to a global increase in prices, decreased welfare levels, and a 7 percent reduction in global gross production according to IMF economists.
The current technological war between Beijing and Washington might lead to technological fragmentation, resulting in two distinct technological worlds—one American and the other Chinese—similar to what has happened with the internet. This would increase costs for consumers and producers and slow the desired progress by preventing knowledge and technological exchange between the two worlds.
While the author understands the need for countries to protect their economies and technological progress from dependency, he argues that the solution lies in pursuing a strategy to mitigate risks by diversifying relationships with multiple international actors and forming alliances rather than cutting trade and technological ties, as seen in the US-China trade war initiated by former President Donald Trump.
