The vital importance of the Middle East in American decision-making is attributed to many factors, most notably the presence of Israel, which is the closest ally of the U.S. since the end of World War II, and the Gulf states, which play critical roles in global energy security. The Middle East also significantly contributes to securing supply chains, whether for oil or goods, to various parts of the world. Additionally, there is Iran, which the U.S. has classified as part of the “axis of evil” since the presidency of George W. Bush.
However, the greater significance of the Middle East lies in being a “theater for geopolitical competition” between proponents of a unipolar world led by the United States on one side, and Russia and China, which strongly support the idea of fairness in international relations, advocating for a “multipolar world order.” Following the events of the so-called “Arab Spring,” Democrats rushed to promote the idea that the “relative value” of the Middle East in the map of international interests had diminished based on “miscalculations” that claimed Israel had become secure after the turmoil experienced by several Arab countries due to what was termed the “Arab Spring.” These miscalculations extended to the belief that the era of Arab oil and gas had ended, with the U.S. now being the world’s largest producer of oil and having become an oil exporter since 2018. These previous calculations and trajectories formed the basis for the views of several Democratic leaders and officials since the time of Barack Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, extending to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
Contrary to the majority of opinion polls, President Donald Trump won the presidential election to become the 47th president in U.S. history, marking a second historic return to the White House with a completely different vision for the Middle East based on “new political keys” aimed at ending wars and enhancing peace and stability in the Arab region and throughout the Middle East, offering hope for halting massacres and direct wars, as well as the “shadow wars” that have overshadowed the Biden and Harris administration. What is Trump’s new vision for the Middle East? How can it be built upon to achieve peace and stability while isolating extremist forces in Israel so that they do not hinder Trump’s desired “new architecture” for the region?
Trump’s Three Pillars
The Middle East occupies a significant and prominent position in Trump’s thoughts and vision, which was expressed in his first foreign visit during his initial term to Saudi Arabia in May 2017 for the Arab-Islamic summit, where he emphasized the importance of Arab-American relations. Trump did not engage in any wars in the Middle East and led significant efforts that resulted in the “spatial defeat” of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, disproving his predecessor Barack Obama’s assertion that expelling ISIS from Syrian and Iraqi cities would take decades. However, what the people of the Arab region and the Middle East most remember about Trump is his rejection of “colored revolutions” and the toppling of governments from abroad, as Democrats had previously done. President-elect Donald Trump’s vision rests on three facts concerning the Middle East:
Oil will remain a key component of the energy equation for many years; therefore, Trump will enhance American efforts to produce more oil and energy, efforts that were nearly halted during the Democratic era. Trump views Middle Eastern countries, especially the Gulf states, as crucial for the stability of global energy supplies, which underscores the “significant relative value” of Middle Eastern countries in any re-engineering and re-evaluation of the active forces in the region.
The equation of Israeli security is failing, as it currently relies solely on military superiority. From Trump’s perspective, Israel’s global image has suffered due to the prolonged Israeli war on Gaza and southern Lebanon. The equation that Israelis should focus on is how to coexist and integrate with regional countries through a new set of normalization pathways between Israel and various Arab and Islamic nations. Therefore, Trump aims to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, moving away from the path of war and military confrontations between the two countries; he believes in economic solutions or what he calls “economic peace.”
Strengthening American presence in the region, where Trump seeks to reinforce Washington’s interests in the area following the Israeli war on Gaza, in light of the successes achieved by Washington’s strategic competitors in Moscow and Beijing, especially as China has become the top trading partner for all Middle Eastern countries, deepening the comprehensive strategic partnerships between Russia and various countries in the region, both Arab and non-Arab.
According to this vision of President Trump, there are five issues he will address in the Middle East, which are:
First: Ending Wars Throughout the Middle East
Trump’s plan, announced on multiple occasions, is to end wars in the Middle East, starting with the Israeli war on Gaza and southern Lebanon, extending to direct and reciprocal strikes between Israel and Iran, and reaching conflicts in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Sudan. For perhaps the first time in American history, a presidential candidate has made a written commitment to voters to end war. This is evident in a message signed by Trump and conveyed by Mas’ad Boulos, an Arab American relations officer in his campaign, to Lebanese and Arab voters in Dearborn, Michigan, published by community leader Hassan Abbas. The five points signed by Trump campaign representatives in Michigan with Imam Bilal Al-Zuhairi also included Trump’s commitment to stopping the war in Gaza and Lebanon, underscoring Trump’s seriousness about halting Middle Eastern wars.
Second: A New Approach to the Deal of the Century
It is certain that the Palestinian people, supported by Arab and Islamic nations, have rejected the “Deal of the Century,” which drew many criticisms from Israel and Netanyahu. Therefore, Trump’s team must propose a “new political approach” for the future of relations between Palestinians and Israelis. Trump would be mistaken if he thought that improving the lives of Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, could lead to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through economic means; thus, he must present a comprehensive political vision that leads to the self-determination of the Palestinian people and the establishment of their independent state, with East Jerusalem as its capital. Clearly, a two-state solution requires considerable effort from the American president, not just in terms of unwavering support for Israel, but also because Israel has exploited the past years to establish a new reality by increasing the number of settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem to approximately 600,000, and seizing vast areas of Palestinian land, particularly in the Jordan Valley.
Third: National Statehood and Colored Revolutions
President Trump rejects supporting colored revolutions or what’s called the “Arab Spring,” or the toppling of governments from abroad. He also opposes intervention in the internal affairs of other countries, as demonstrated by his statements about Iran, where he affirmed that he does not aim to overthrow the regime in Tehran. Meanwhile, the Democratic agenda has focused on intervening in other countries’ internal affairs under the banner of “human rights,” and many Arab countries in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Libya continue to suffer from the aftermath of Democratic support and former president Barack Obama for what are termed Arab Spring revolutions.
Additionally, national statehood holds a special status for Trump; thus, his first term from January 2017 to January 20, 2021, witnessed support for the concept of a national state in the Arab region and the Middle East, which can help restore unity and security in several countries in the region, such as Sudan, Libya, and Yemen, currently suffering from political and societal fragmentation, ultimately leading to a noticeable weakening of national state institutions.
Fourth: Iran and Brian Hook
Trump’s appointment of his former envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, as responsible for the transition from the Biden administration to the Trump administration at the State Department revealed the significant role Hook will play in shaping future relations between Trump and Iran. Certainly, the maximum pressure policy imposed by Trump on Iran in November 2018, along with the withdrawal from the “5+1” nuclear agreement in May 2018, yielded no results on the ground; instead, it led to an increase in uranium enrichment levels from about 3.7%, as stipulated in the nuclear agreement, to 60%, which can reach the 90% necessary for producing a nuclear bomb at any moment. Moreover, the imposition of harsh sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports did not cut off military and economic assistance to Tehran’s allies in the Arab region, driving Trump to seek a “new equation” that leads to the peace and stability he advocates, but with new tools different from those that failed in his first term. This has led Trump to contemplate striking a deal with Iran that may lead to achieving peace and stability across the Middle East, from Yemen and Lebanon to Palestine, Iraq, and Syria. Iran’s reaffirmation that it does not intend to engage in nuclear weapons development, coupled with any denial of involvement in an attempt to assassinate Trump, provides a pretext for continuing the long-standing indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States aimed at reducing tensions in the Middle East—an objective that may align with the directions of the new Iranian government led by President Masoud Bazakchiyan, as well as the reformist trend he champions.
Fifth: Reducing Military Commitments
Trump’s aim in ending wars in the Middle East is to return to the calm state that existed before October 7, 2023, which would allow American forces to reduce their numbers in the region, where approximately 42,000 troops are currently stationed. Consequently, Trump may withdraw around 900 U.S. soldiers from Syria and reduce the number of troops in Iraq from 2,500 to about 1,000, redeploying these forces near China and the Indo-Pacific region.
It is certain that Trump, in his new version at the White House, will be more rational and realistic than in his first term. If he succeeds in ending wars in the Middle East and establishing an acceptable peace formula between Palestinians and Israelis, he could join the list of American leaders who made history during their second term.
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