In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, South Korea quickly emerged—as if out of nowhere—as one of the largest suppliers of arms and ammunition to the European Union. In 2022, European nations signed defense contracts worth $8.4 billion with South Korea. By 2023, South Korea had supplied Ukraine—indirectly—more artillery shells than all European countries combined. This surge has positioned South Korea as the tenth largest arms exporter in the world and the third largest in Asia, following China and Israel.
One of the main reasons contributing to South Korea’s success lies in the strong stature of its defense industries, particularly in the production of weapons used in ground warfare. Prior to the Russian-Ukrainian war, military strategists typically predicted that future wars would largely be asymmetric, focusing on naval and aerial confrontations, with an increasing emphasis on cyber warfare, viewing large-scale land invasions as a thing of the past. As a result, many countries reduced the production of weapons used in traditional inter-state wars, like artillery and missiles.
However, the fragile relationship between South Korea and its northern neighbor necessitated the maintenance and development of its ground warfare capabilities for both deterrence and defense purposes. While South Korea is a major producer of military ships and aircraft, artillery and missiles remain centrally important to its defense industry. This, in turn, has attracted significant government investments and subsidies to this sector, which over time allowed local military producers to substantially increase production, achieving economies of scale.
Additionally, decades of technology transfer from Western countries, especially the United States, have allowed South Korean military equipment manufacturers to expand production and advance state-of-the-art technology, positioning South Korean companies well to capitalize on the rising global demand for artillery, missiles, and tanks following February 2022.
Although orders decreased after the peak in 2022, South Korea is well-placed to maintain its momentum. Apart from its prowess in defense manufacturing, it can benefit from being regarded as a like-minded partner by the European Union. Efforts to decouple the global economy and divide it into two competing blocs do not seem realistic given the high level of interdependence.
Nonetheless, military matters are subjected to much stricter security scrutiny, and purchasing from geopolitical competitors is often not an option, which could exclude some major arms producers from European markets, enhancing opportunities for South Korea. It’s important to note that while South Korea is viewed as a partner aligned with the United States, it does not carry the same geopolitical burden as Washington or other Western countries, allowing it to navigate politically complex markets more easily.
For instance, countries like Slovakia, which has tense relations with the European Union and the United States due to its characterization as a partner to Russia and China, are still seeking to make arms deals with South Korea. Slovakia has long considered purchasing Korean-made anti-aircraft systems and established a strategic partnership in September 2024. In other words, South Korea’s alliance with the United States does not pose challenges to its dealings with other nations.
To sustain this momentum, South Korean diplomats must work to position their country favorably in European capitals to ensure the continued flow of defense requests, regardless of who is in power. This will require a degree of diplomatic risk-taking, an increasingly necessary strategy for states hoping to navigate the competition between the United States and China.
In the European context, this entails crafting an image of South Korea as a partner, carefully balancing its messaging about relations with the United States. In countries like Poland and the Baltic states, where deepening transatlantic relations is a priority, South Korea must emphasize its close ties with Washington. Conversely, in countries where public opinion or government policies lean towards neutral policymaking, like Slovakia, the focus should be on South Korea’s competitive pricing, quality, and ability to diversify procurement options.
However, European countries will welcome the transfer of South Korean defense production to their economies. Poland’s licensing of Korean tank production sets a precedent for similar partnerships across the continent. The war in Ukraine has opened a window of opportunity for South Korea to expand its defense exports and enhance its strategic presence in Europe. While the potential rewards are significant, maintaining this momentum will be challenging. The success of this approach depends on the ability of the country’s diplomats to operate with a high degree of skill and diplomacy.
Moreover, these efforts may be undermined in the long term by renewed military tensions with North Korea, which could necessitate a shift in military production to meet domestic needs, ultimately leading to a reduction in exports to Europe. A sudden end to the war in Ukraine could also diminish demand from Europe, although such a turn of events seems highly unlikely.
However, due to its strong position in arms manufacturing, its ideological proximity to Europe, and its ability to leverage its technological advantages while diplomatically navigating the political landscape, South Korea is well-positioned to seize the opportunity to strengthen its relationships with European countries while simultaneously advancing its economy.
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