It seems that learning from history will remain one of the most significant forgotten lessons. As President Donald Trump embarks on a new term starting January 20, 2025, he will be faced with heavy files that could reshape the future of the Middle East over the next four years, and redefine the map of U.S. relations with non-Arab regional powers, especially the Islamic Republic, which has experienced a state of confusion within political circles and decision-making circles due to the hostile legacy established between Iran and the Trump administration during his first term. These concerns raise a fundamental question: Can we foresee U.S.-Iranian relations by referencing the past?
Lessons from Trump’s First Term
During Trump’s first term (2017-2021), there was a systematic hostility toward the Islamic Republic manifested in several ways:
U.S. Sanctions: Trump re-imposed and expanded sanctions following the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, focusing particularly on Iran’s vital oil sector as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign. These actions led to a significant decrease in Iranian oil exports, which are the primary source of Tehran’s revenue, severely impacting the Iranian government, where oil income constituted nearly 70% of its revenues. Between 2018 and 2021, the Trump administration imposed over 1,500 sanctions on Iran, as well as on foreign companies and individuals dealing with it, alongside sanctions on key Iranian institutions like the Supreme Leader’s office, the Revolutionary Guard, and the Central Bank.
Assassination of Qasem Soleimani: In January 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of the Iran-backed militia in Iraq known as the Popular Mobilization Forces. The U.S. carried out an airstrike at Baghdad Airport, claiming it was to deter future Iranian attack plans. However, the strike aimed to weaken the influence of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in the Middle East, and Iran responded swiftly by launching a series of missile attacks on two Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops. Months later, in June of the same year, Iran issued an arrest warrant for Trump and requested Interpol’s assistance to capture him and dozens of his aides as revenge for Soleimani’s killing.
Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump withdrew from the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear capabilities and place its activities under stricter monitoring to limit Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Trump later attempted to persuade Tehran to return to the negotiating table for a better deal that would serve U.S. interests, but these attempts were met with Iranian rejection, and Tehran ramped up its nuclear efforts once again.
Wave of Normalization with Israel: One of Trump’s most significant strategies in the Middle East during his first term was his efforts to further isolate Iran through the so-called “Abraham Accords,” which aimed to normalize relations between Israel and several Arab and Islamic nations. Bahrain, the UAE, and Morocco were among the countries that joined the agreements since 2020.
What Will Change in Trump’s Second Term?
Trump’s second term comes amid intricate local, regional, and international developments that could impact the future relationship between Tehran and Washington, as outlined below:
Israeli Aggression Against Gaza and Lebanon: With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aggressive stance toward Tehran following Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel in October 2023 and the Israeli war on Lebanon targeting the Iran-backed Hezbollah, the situation has become more perilous for the Islamic Republic. While President Joe Biden’s administration has worked to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East and curb Netanyahu’s actions, Trump’s return to power could signal a more rigid approach, encouraging Israel to adopt a more aggressive stance toward Iran.
Return of Normalization: Trump’s win in a second term means that his administration will continue to expand and strengthen the Abraham Accords, potentially isolating the Islamic Republic further on regional and international fronts. Under Biden, Iran experienced a relative improvement in relations with regional countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Negative Image of Trump: The new president’s image in Iran is tied to his “peace through strength” policy from his first term, characterized by hardline and punitive actions against Tehran, which were met with failed regional and international mediation efforts, such as when Trump tasked then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with mediating between Washington and Tehran in 2019; a mediation that ended when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected any negotiations with Trump.
Assassination Attempts Against Trump: Although there is no direct evidence linking Iran to the attempted assassinations of Trump during his recent campaign, the new U.S. president insists that Tehran is conspiring against him to prevent his return to the White House, especially since the Islamic Republic has repeatedly vowed revenge for Soleimani’s murder. However, Iranian officials deny any connection to these allegations, publicly stating that Trump should face justice in a legal court, not through a retaliatory assassination.
Formation of a New Government: Trump’s return to the White House could mean a lot for Iran’s future. Regardless of what happens when he takes office, his cabinet selections indicate that the next administration will not follow Biden’s policy of easing sanctions and relying primarily on diplomatic initiatives with Iran. Notable selections include Elise Stefanik as U.S. ambassador to the UN, a staunch supporter of Israel and a return to the strategy of maximum pressure on Iran. The nomination of Mike Waltz for Trump’s next national security advisor, known for his hardline stance toward the Islamic Republic, serves as a direct warning of an aggressive policy toward Tehran.
Increased U.S. Pressure on Iran’s Economy: It is highly likely that Trump will reinstate the maximum pressure policy through successive economic sanctions packages, which portends a harsh future for the Iranian economy, described by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during Trump’s first term as an “economy of resistance.”
Future of the Nuclear Program: In his new term, Trump may aim to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon instead of seeking to change the regime. He has long criticized the JCPOA, describing it as the “worst deal” in U.S. history, indicating his desire to negotiate a new agreement bearing his unique stamp, not that of former President Barack Obama, imposing terms that will not allow Iran to advance its nuclear capabilities or acquire a nuclear weapon, which would serve both U.S. and Israeli interests.
Scenarios for Future U.S.-Iranian Relations
The aforementioned facts suggest significant speculation regarding the future of U.S.-Iranian relations over the next four years:
Most Likely Scenario: “Controlled Hostility”: Trump may adopt a limited and calculated hostile strategy toward the Islamic Republic during his second term. This scenario is more likely if reformist President Masoud Bezhkishan takes over Iran since last May, leading to a willingness to consider negotiating with Trump over a new nuclear agreement, especially given the country’s deteriorating economic situation, which cannot withstand a return to maximum pressure. Israeli war developments have also militarily fatigued the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its proxies in the region, making Iran more open to negotiations and reducing hostility with the U.S. to avoid a potential strike on its nuclear sites with U.S.-European-Israeli cooperation, particularly given Europe’s strict rejection of the program and Arab countries pulling back from developing relations with Tehran should Arab-Israeli normalization expand.
Least Likely Scenario: “Total Hostility”: Trump could adopt an all-out confrontational approach towards Iran in the next four years, bolstered by his staunch calls for Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities amid the war Israel is waging on Gaza and Lebanon, aiming to undermine the Iranian resistance axis. Netanyahu’s character is integral in widening the gap between Trump and Bezhkishan; under the ongoing war led by Netanyahu, the chances for diplomatic breakthroughs or settlements between Iran and the U.S. seem slim.
Conclusion
Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. elections may send shockwaves through Iranian financial markets, imposing severe economic pressures on the country, which could ignite more internal turmoil and increasing discontent throughout the Islamic Republic. Nevertheless, the crucial question remains: how can Iran negotiate with the man responsible for Soleimani’s death? Dealing with a “Republican” U.S. administration becomes more challenging for Tehran. Although Trump has stated his readiness to negotiate with the Islamic Republic, any new agreement is likely to require Israeli approval and tangible regional concessions from Tehran, including reducing support for anti-Israel armed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which seems unlikely in the near term.
