Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visited the United States from November 10 to November 14, 2024, during which he held several meetings with American officials, primarily with President Joe Biden. Subianto’s visit highlights the significant importance of the United States to Indonesia. The visit served to reaffirm Subianto’s efforts to build strategic relations between the two countries, aiming to achieve several key economic and political interests for Jakarta, while aligning with Indonesia’s endeavors to maintain balanced foreign relations with major powers in the international system.
Outcomes of the Visit
Subianto’s visit to the United States produced a range of outcomes, with the most significant elements as follows:
Announcement of the Establishment of the American-Indonesian Defense Alumni Association: U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Washington. During the meeting, Austin congratulated Subianto on his new position and discussed ways to enhance defense relations between the two countries, alongside regional and global issues. They addressed shared security concerns in the South China Sea and Indonesia’s plans to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza. Subianto reaffirmed his commitment to working closely with the United States to enhance alignment between the two nations. Austin and Subianto announced the establishment of the American-Indonesian Defense Alumni Association as a significant step to deepen ties between the armed forces of both countries. Both sides committed to strengthening the bilateral partnership under the Defense Cooperation Agreement signed in 2023 and the comprehensive strategic partnership framework between Washington and Jakarta. This reflects Indonesia’s aspirations to continually enhance defense relations to maintain a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. This security cooperation extends beyond military dimensions to include strategic dialogue between the armed forces of both nations, enhancing joint coordination to tackle transnational security challenges. This relationship is a fundamental part of Indonesia’s policy to ensure regional stability amid rising tensions.
Discussion of the Middle East Conflict by Subianto and Biden: The issue of the Middle East conflict was one of the key topics during the Indonesian president’s visit to Washington. In their meeting, both leaders asserted the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of hostages, prisoner exchanges, and the free flow of humanitarian aid; they also expressed grave concern over the humanitarian situation in Gaza, condemning all attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure. This focus on the Middle East conflict is also connected to internal dynamics in Indonesia, as this issue is among the key concerns of the Indonesian public. Indonesian political elites believe that Washington, with its ties to Israel, is the primary international actor in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Indonesia Invites American Investors to Support Sustainable Growth: President Subianto met with representatives of American companies in Washington, including Freeport-McMoRan and Chevron, where he encouraged investment opportunities in Indonesia and urged American entrepreneurs to prioritize environmental, social, and governance principles when investing in his country. Simultaneously, Jakarta pledged to reduce bureaucracy and create favorable conditions for foreign investors entering the market. It is noteworthy that in the first nine months of 2024, American investors injected $2.8 billion into Indonesia, making the U.S. the fourth-largest source of foreign direct investment during this period.
U.S. Commitment to Support Indonesia in Developing Small Modular Reactors: The United States committed to assisting Indonesia in accelerating the development of small modular reactors, including expediting ongoing research and exploring available opportunities to enhance Indonesia’s capabilities through nuclear assessment programs. This commitment was announced during Subianto’s meeting with Biden at the White House on November 12, 2024, where they emphasized the importance of supporting climate and energy security goals.
Indonesia’s Aspirations to Benefit from Joining Multilateral Organizations: Subianto reaffirmed Indonesia’s eagerness to fully benefit from any multilateral organizations it may join, expressing interest in membership in both the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the BRICS group. He emphasized maximizing the benefits Indonesia could gain from membership in these organizations. Additionally, Indonesia aspires to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), launched by President Biden two years ago. These ambitions highlight Subianto’s pursuit of a more assertive leadership role in Southeast Asia, particularly as the CPTPP is viewed as an attempt to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Commitment to Strengthen Research Cooperation in Governance and Technology: Both the Indonesian and American presidents expressed their commitment to enhancing research cooperation in artificial intelligence and sustainable agriculture practices, particularly through the second dialogue on digital technology between Indonesia and the U.S. regarding agriculture. They emphasized the importance of strengthening capacity building and ensuring equitable access to secure and resilient AI and relevant digital innovations. The presidents welcomed the opportunity to expand Open RAN wireless access network projects in Indonesia, thereby establishing a competitive ecosystem for advanced technology and connectivity. They referenced the U.S. State Department’s partnership with the Indonesian government through the International Technology Security and Innovation Fund (ITSI). Regarding governance, both countries reaffirmed their membership in the Open Government Partnership to enhance transparency, accountability, public engagement, and anti-corruption priorities.
Investment in Education and Potential Health MoU: The visit underscored Biden and Subianto’s plans to deepen cooperation in education, research, and development, as they welcomed further collaboration in sciences, engineering, arts, mathematics, language education, and entrepreneurship with a focus on women, youth, and people with disabilities. As part of these efforts, they noted the importance of expanding vocational training and skills training and technical education, focusing on manufacturing, health, and creative industries. Biden’s expression of support for Indonesia’s national program to provide healthy meals for school children and pregnant mothers, along with the presidents’ indication of the possibility of signing a high-level health memorandum of understanding between Washington and Jakarta in the future, demonstrates the two countries’ firm commitment to cooperating on developing Indonesia’s health sector.
Jakarta’s Balances
There are several dimensions connected to the Indonesian president’s visit to the United States, as follows:
Indonesia’s Commitment to a Balanced Foreign Policy: Indonesia adheres to a non-aligned policy to enhance its national interests and maintain the independence of its foreign policies. In this context, President Prabowo chose China as the first destination for his foreign visit after being elected, reflecting Jakarta’s commitment to enhancing its strategic relations with Beijing. Following this visit, the two countries signed agreements worth $10 billion in November 2024, covering multiple areas, including green energy and technology, in addition to projects in food and new energy sectors. China is a major trade partner for Indonesia, thanks to Chinese investments in infrastructure and energy projects. This was immediately followed by a visit to the United States, where Subianto aimed to enhance cooperation in various fields, such as security and economy, reflecting Indonesia’s attempts to achieve balance in its international relations. In recent years, Indonesia has sought to strengthen its military partnerships with the United States, manifested in the 2023 joint exercise “Super Garuda Shield,” which included amphibious and air drills, as well as airport control exercises involving 1,900 Indonesian soldiers and 2,100 American soldiers alongside other countries such as Australia, Japan, and Singapore.
Declining Public Support in Indonesia for Strengthening Ties with Washington: Subianto’s visit to Washington comes at a time when public perception of the United States in Indonesia has declined, amid the Biden administration’s supportive stance towards Israel in its conflict with Gaza. Many in Indonesia—home to the largest Muslim population in the world—hold the United States responsible for the suffering in Gaza. This widespread public sentiment has manifested in support for boycotting American companies, further straining public support for relations between the two countries and complicating efforts to enhance U.S.-Indonesian cooperation at this stage.
Shared Vision Regarding China’s Increasing Threats in the South China Sea: President Subianto and President Biden discussed the situation in the South China Sea, with Subianto affirming Indonesia’s non-recognition of China’s claims over the vast majority of the South China Sea, despite signing a maritime development agreement with Beijing. This reflects the increasing tensions between China and several Southeast Asian nations regarding the disputed waters in the South China Sea, especially in light of China’s growing rise, which could pose a threat to the security and peace of several regional countries. Indonesia considers the U.S. maritime presence in the South China Sea a significant priority to ensure freedom of navigation in the sea lanes passing through its waters. Indonesia emphasizes the importance of this cooperation not only in maintaining maritime stability but also in combating illegal activities like unlawful fishing. Indonesia perceives the presence of U.S. naval forces as contributing to regional security and serving as an important tool to ensure coastal states’ sovereignty in this strategic area.
Indonesia’s Attempt to Play a Role in Ensuring Regional Security: Subianto’s visit to Washington indicates his diplomatic priorities; he is keen on achieving balance in Indonesia’s relations with key Western players. Subianto’s meeting with Biden highlights the role Indonesia aims to play in ensuring regional peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region. This meeting coincided with ongoing U.S.-Indonesian naval drills off Indonesia’s Batam Island. These annual military drills are the third of their kind among the United States and Southeast Asian partners as a countermeasure to affirm China’s presence in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.
Continued Importance of Indonesia for U.S. Interests: Biden’s statements to Subianto at the White House underscore Washington’s interest in enhancing and expanding its strategic partnership with Indonesia as a vital ally in preventing the growing power and ambitions of China. Jakarta is also keen to maintain defense cooperation with the United States, reflecting the mutual trust between the two countries in this realm. Indonesia seeks to continually strengthen this defense relationship within a comprehensive strategy aimed at maintaining the balance of power in Southeast Asia. This security cooperation extends beyond military dimensions to include strategic dialogue between the armed forces of both nations, enhancing joint coordination in tackling transnational security challenges. This relationship is a fundamental part of Indonesia’s policy to ensure regional stability.
Subianto’s Efforts to Support Domestic Political Goals: Jakarta aims to enhance economic cooperation to support the new administration’s domestic political objectives. Specifically, it is interested in pursuing a free trade agreement that would allow it to benefit from the generous electric vehicle subsidies outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act enacted by the Biden administration and support its ambition to become an electric vehicle manufacturing hub.
Jakarta’s Ongoing Efforts to Access American Weapon Systems: Subianto seeks to continue the efforts of his predecessors to access American weapon systems, whether to strengthen the Indonesian military or to assist in developing a national defense manufacturing base, although the prospects for progress in either area are limited, especially following Trump’s re-election.
Indonesia’s Desire to Sell More Minerals to the U.S.: Trade is a vital area in the relationship between Indonesia and the United States, as Jakarta seeks to enhance and expand its trade volume with Washington. Indonesia emphasizes the need for increased American efforts to provide attractive trade incentives, especially amid growing global competition with new players entering the market. Indonesia regards critical minerals as an essential part of its trade aspirations with the United States, aiming to elevate its economic ties to a higher strategic level. Furthermore, Indonesia seeks to boost its exports of mined minerals to the United States, a desire expressed by Subianto during his meeting with Biden.
Indonesian President’s Openness to Trump’s Administration: Subianto’s visit to Washington revealed his eagerness towards the incoming Trump administration. Coinciding with the visit, the Indonesian president released a video of his phone call congratulating Donald Trump on his re-election as U.S. president. Prabowo stated in the video, “Wherever you are, I am ready to travel to congratulate you in person, Sir,” to which Trump responded, “That’s very kind. We’ll do that whenever you want.” The newly elected president expressed that he is “proud of Prabowo for doing a fantastic job in Indonesia.” This interest in engaging with the Trump administration seeks to mitigate potential impacts of shifts in U.S. policies towards Indonesia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. It is anticipated that the Trump administration may roll back the economic cooperation agreements established by the Biden administration with regional countries. It may consider entering limited bilateral trade deals on a case-by-case basis. Washington is likely to maintain its core security commitments, while Jakarta will continue its non-alignment policy towards both Washington and Beijing.
In conclusion, Trump’s re-election as U.S. president presents a set of new challenges for Indonesia, especially regarding Jakarta’s aspirations for increased economic cooperation with Washington. The principle of “America First” may drive Trump to abandon any potential bilateral trade agreements with any country, reinforcing isolationist policies, and excluding the signing of any free trade agreement on critical minerals between the two countries. Moreover, the “Joint Clean Energy Transition Partnership”—a multilateral initiative led by the United States aimed at assisting Indonesia in transitioning to renewable energy sources—might face serious issues, as Trump is viewed as a skeptic of climate change. Support for initiatives that encourage Indonesia in this domain is expected to wane.
