The Christian Union, composed of the Christian Democratic Union Party and its allies in the Christian Social Union, led by Friedrich Merz, achieved a significant victory (28.6% of the votes) in the German legislative elections held on February 23, 2025. Merz has begun consultations to form the next government, as stated in his victory speech: “We need to form a stable government as quickly as possible with the support of a parliamentary majority, because the world outside will not wait for us nor for long-term party consultations to establish it.” The new German government, led by Friedrich Merz, will face significant challenges in foreign policy, and he emphasized the need for Berlin to quickly regain its ability to operate on the international stage, particularly in Europe, in transatlantic relations, and in the Middle East.
Potential Directions
Friedrich Merz has made several positions and statements regarding many issues in the Middle East, which will clarify the approach the upcoming German government will take under his leadership, the most prominent of which are as follows:
- Strong and Unconditional German Support for Israel: Friedrich Merz is known for his strong and unconditional support for Israel, promising to lift all restrictions on German arms exports to the country. He criticized the policies of the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which effectively imposed a ban on arming Israel during the recent war. After the October 2023 attack, Merz visited Israel, reaffirming his commitment to maintaining the strategic relations between the two countries, declaring that Israel’s security is part of Germany’s historical responsibility. Merz had previously criticized the policies of former U.S. President Joe Biden towards Israel, rejecting any American pressures that limit Tel Aviv’s freedom to take defensive actions.
- Non-compliance with Arrest Warrant for Netanyahu: Merz confirmed that if he assumes the role of German Chancellor, he would invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit Berlin without facing arrest, considering the idea of capturing him on German soil to be “absurd.” This statement reflects a German approach supporting Israel regardless of international pressures, suggesting that the Merz government will continue close relations with Tel Aviv, even if this results in tensions with the International Criminal Court and some European nations. Under its legal obligations as a party to the International Criminal Court, Germany is obliged to execute arrest warrants issued by the court, including those related to Netanyahu. However, Merz’s statement raises questions about the extent to which his future government will adhere to international law, especially if faced with international pressure to enforce the warrant. This contradiction between legal commitments and political positions may create internal and international controversy, particularly amid European divisions regarding dealings with the Israeli government and its policies in Gaza.
- Support for a Two-State Solution with an Acknowledgment of Israel’s Right as a Jewish State: Merz affirms his support for a two-state solution as a framework for peace between Israel and the Palestinians in principle, but he conditions this on an explicit and unequivocal recognition by the Palestinians of Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. He believes that any future negotiations should be based on this recognition as a necessary foundation before discussing the details of a Palestinian state. He also stressed that Berlin, under his leadership, would not pressure Israel to accept settlements that do not consider its security and strategic interests, reflecting his hardline approach to the Palestinian issue.
- Strict Stance Against Accepting Palestinian Refugees: Friedrich Merz takes a firm stance against accepting Palestinian refugees in Germany, arguing that the country can no longer accommodate more refugees, especially in light of rising anti-Semitism within German society. In October 2023, he emphatically stated that his government, if he were to become Chancellor, would not grant asylum to Palestinians, noting that Berlin already has a significant number of individuals with anti-Israel sentiments. This position reflects his overall approach towards tightening immigration policies, as he calls for a reduction in illegal immigration numbers and stricter border control measures, which has made him subject to criticism from leftist parties and civil society but has concurrently garnered support from conservative circles demanding tougher policies on refugees.
- Closer Ties with Turkey for Regional Stability: Merz focuses on the necessity for Germany and the European Union to play a more effective role in supporting stability in the Middle East through cooperation with Turkey, which has demonstrated its ability to impact regional issues and given its growing role in the area. He believes that the decline of Russian influence, particularly following the collapse of the Syrian regime, provides an opportunity to redraw regional balances, making Turkey a key player that Europe can rely on in peace efforts. Merz asserts that rapprochement with Ankara is not an option but a necessity imposed by geopolitical shifts. He sees this cooperation extending beyond a diplomatic framework to include security and political areas, ensuring sustainable outcomes.
- Cautious Assessment of the Situation in Syria: Merz’s stance on Syria is characterized by caution and a delay in assessing the situation there, affirming that it is premature to assert the end of the civil war despite the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his flight to Moscow. He notes that recent developments, including the Syrian opposition’s control of the capital Damascus, represent a radical shift, but emphasizes the need to wait before drawing definitive conclusions about the country’s future.
In conclusion, Friedrich Merz’s vision as the incoming German Chancellor for German foreign policy towards the Middle East is centered on the necessity to achieve regional stability, prioritizing cooperation with key allies to confront the geopolitical challenges faced by this region, whose developments will have major global implications, including energy security and trade routes. Instability in the region could lead to disruptions in oil supplies, affecting global economic stability, with potential long-term consequences for the German economy.
Merz’s focus on stability aligns with his support for traditional allies, such as Israel, and his commitment to resolving long-standing conflicts, like the Palestinian-Israeli struggle. By promoting stability, Merz aims to create a favorable environment for diplomatic efforts and economic cooperation.
Moreover, Merz’s positions on Middle East stability reflect broader European concerns regarding regional security and its impact on immigration and terrorism issues. Ongoing conflicts and tensions in the Middle East have contributed to refugee crises and the emergence of extremist groups, imposing significant challenges to European and German security and social cohesion. Through advocating for stability, Merz seeks to proactively address these challenges, ensuring that Berlin and Europe can maintain a secure and stable environment both domestically and internationally. This approach also aligns with the wider goals of his foreign policy, which aims to strengthen alliances and encourage regional cooperation to address complex global issues.
