The issue of individual gun ownership is a contentious topic in the United States, intersecting considerations of community security, freedom, and public policy. However, with the increase in incidents related to these firearms, it has become essential to understand the social, legal, and scientific dimensions of this issue, enabling the federal government to adopt effective policies governing gun ownership while balancing public interest and safety concerns.
In this context, the RAND Corporation issued a report in July 2024 titled “The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies.” This report is the fourth in the research initiative that the organization has undertaken since 2016, aimed at systematically evaluating existing scientific studies to determine the real effects of gun laws and policies, and to create a reliable reference for policymakers and citizens to access unbiased information that aids in developing fair and effective policies. This report updates the findings from three previous issues published in 2018, 2020, and 2023.
Multiple Motivations and Risks:
Many Americans seek to own firearms for a variety of reasons, including economic opportunities such as hunting, recreational activities like target shooting, and security for self-defense. Additionally, hundreds of thousands of Americans are employed in the firearms industry as trainers, shooting range operators, hunting equipment suppliers, and manufacturers of firearms and ammunition. Conversely, many Americans suffer the consequences of this; over 39,500 Americans die each year from intentional or unintentional gunshot injuries, with more than half of these deaths being classified as “suicides.”
In relation to this, American citizens have become increasingly concerned about the recurring incidents of mass shootings within the United States, which have resulted in numerous casualties, leading to a rise in calls for regulating gun ownership. However, policies surrounding gun regulation in American society are contentious, occurring within a highly polarized political and partisan environment. Consequently, policies and studies pertaining to firearms are often biased towards a particular viewpoint according to the report.
Review of Regulatory Policies:
The RAND report provides a systematic review of eighteen categories of gun policies implemented in certain U.S. states and their effects on eight outcomes (suicide, violent crime, unintentional injuries and deaths, mass shootings, police shootings, defensive use of firearms, hunting and recreation, the firearms industry). It is important to note that laws do not affect these outcomes collectively but rather impact some of them. The report relies on a range of scientific studies, categorizing the extracted evidence into supportive evidence, limited evidence, and inconclusive evidence as follows:
- Policies Regulating Gun Ownership:
Minimum Age Requirements: Under U.S. federal law, licensed dealers are prohibited from selling handguns to individuals under the age of 21, while rifles may not be sold to anyone under 18. Most states restrict handgun ownership for those under 18 but typically do not impose age restrictions on owning long guns. The report finds limited evidence that minimum age requirements could reduce suicide rates, with no evidence regarding their impact on violent homicides, particularly since perpetrators of such crimes are usually adults. Additionally, there is no conclusive evidence on the effect of age restrictions on unintentional deaths or mass shootings.
Mental Illness Related Prohibitions: Federal law prohibits gun ownership by individuals deemed mentally ill. States vary in defining which weapons are restricted for this group and who qualifies as mentally ill. The report indicates inconclusive evidence regarding the impact of these laws on suicide cases, with limited evidence on their effect in reducing violent crime.
Domestic Violence Related Prohibitions: Over half of murders among intimate partners involve a firearm. Federal law has prohibited individuals convicted of domestic violence from possessing or purchasing firearms since the Gun Control Act of 1968. The report cites inconclusive evidence about the effectiveness of these laws in reducing murders among intimate partners, as well as in mass shootings, as perpetrators of these incidents are often domestic violence offenders.
Firearm Surrender by Prohibited Possessors: Federal law prohibits the sale of firearms to prohibited persons, such as minors, undocumented immigrants, and convicted felons. However, there is no system in place to track whether these individuals already own firearms when they become prohibited. The report finds inconclusive evidence concerning the effect of this law on violent crimes and mass shootings, though there is moderate evidence that it reduces domestic violence offenses.
Extreme Risk Protection Orders: These temporary and preventive protection orders allow for the removal of firearms from individuals at high risk of committing armed violence against others or themselves. Notably, there are no federal laws governing firearm-related extreme risk protection orders. The report mentions limited evidence that these orders reduce suicide rates, but inconclusive evidence regarding their effect on violent homicides or unintentional firearm deaths.
- Policies Regulating Firearm Sales:
Background Checks: Aimed at preventing access to firearms for convicted criminals, many states have expanded the federal requirement mandating background checks for all firearm sales, including those between private parties. The report finds inconclusive evidence regarding the effects of these policies on reducing suicide rates, homicide rates, mass shootings, police-involved shootings, and the firearms industry.
Licensing and Permit Requirements: Federal law does not require individuals to have a license or permit to own or purchase a firearm; however, many states have their own specific licensing or permitting requirements. The report finds inconclusive evidence regarding the effect of these requirements on reducing suicide and homicide rates, while there is limited evidence regarding their impact on mass shooting incidents.
Waiting Periods: This refers to the duration a person must wait to complete a background check by the FBI before being allowed to purchase a new firearm. The report finds limited evidence that waiting periods might reduce suicide rates, and inconclusive evidence regarding their effect on mass shootings and the firearms industry.
Firearm Safety Training Requirements: There are no federal laws mandating citizens to receive safety training upon purchasing firearms, although some states occasionally require proof of formal safety training before granting permits. The report finds inconclusive evidence about the impact of training requirements on overall violent crime rates, mass shootings, and firearm purchases.
Reporting Requirements for Lost or Stolen Firearms: Federal law requires licensed firearm dealers to report lost or stolen firearms to local authorities, but there is no federal requirement for ordinary citizens to do so. The report indicates no studies have examined the outcomes of reporting policies related to different homicide incidents.
Requirements for Reporting Firearm Sales and Record Keeping: Under federal law, licensed dealers must “retain records of firearm sales indefinitely.” The report notes inconclusive evidence concerning the impact of these requirements on suicide, violent crime, as well as on firearm purchases.
Assault Weapon Sale Bans: There has been no federal ban (since 2004) on the use of assault weapons with military characteristics and high-capacity magazines. The report concludes that there is inconclusive evidence regarding the impact of the assault weapon bans on suicide rates, homicide rates, and police shootings, along with limited evidence on their effect in reducing mass shootings.
Ban on Low-Quality Handguns: The law prohibits anyone from importing firearms unless they are “for sporting purposes,” aimed at restricting access to firearms for at-risk individuals who rely on low-cost firearms to commit crimes. The report finds inconclusive evidence regarding the effect of this law on suicide, violent crime, and firearm purchases.
- Policies Regulating Legal Use, Storage, or Carrying of Firearms:
Self-Defense Laws: This refers to criminal defenses in lethal and non-lethal confrontations, imposing a duty to retreat before using force if safe withdrawal is possible. The report indicates inconclusive evidence regarding the effect of these laws on suicide rates, mass shootings, defensive use of firearms, and firearm purchases, while there is evidence that suggests an increase in these laws correlates with higher firearm homicides.
Child Access Prevention Laws: These allow prosecutors to charge adults who intentionally or negligently allow children access to firearms. The report concludes that there is supporting evidence that these laws reduce suicide rates among children, limited evidence on their impact in reducing unintentional deaths among adults, and inconclusive evidence regarding their effect on the firearms industry.
Concealed Carry Laws: Federal law does not impose restrictions on who may carry a concealed weapon in public, while state laws determine who is allowed to do so (such as police officers) and the necessary procedures to exercise this right. The report finds inconclusive evidence regarding the effect of these laws on overall suicide rates, unintentional deaths, mass shootings, and firearm purchases. Conversely, there is supporting evidence indicating these laws may increase violent crimes, with limited evidence regarding their impact on police-involved shootings.
Gun-Free Zones: Federal laws prohibit carrying firearms in several places, most notably schools. The report concludes that there is inconclusive evidence regarding the effect of these laws on violent crimes.
Laws Allowing Armed Staff in Schools from Kindergarten to Twelfth Grade: These contentious laws face both support and opposition, with the report finding no conclusive evidence on their impact on various homicide incidents.
Key Recommendations:
The RAND report presents several recommendations for policymakers based on the previous findings, including:
- States lacking laws on (child access prevention, prohibiting firearm possession under domestic violence orders, background checks, waiting periods) should consider adopting such measures.
- Consider revoking self-defense laws as a strategy to reduce homicide rates.
- Raise the minimum age for purchasing firearms and ammunition above federal requirements as a means to lessen firearm-related youth suicides.
- The U.S. government and sponsoring institutions should support research on the best methods to measure and evaluate a broader array of outcomes regarding gun policies, facilitate access to data, and publish estimates annually or quarterly.
RAND concludes that the evidence base has significantly expanded since the first publication of the report on gun ownership policies, and policymakers must take this evidence into account to understand the impacts of these policies and adopt the most effective laws.
Source:
Rosanna Smart et. al, “The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence of the Effects of U.S. Gun Policies,” RAND, Jul. 17, 2024.
