For over thirty years, border disputes between Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have been a source of tension in Central Asia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Over decades, unresolved border demarcations have led to sporadic conflicts and visible diplomatic disagreements. In this context, the border conflict over the Fergana Valley among the three countries enters a cycle of protracted and recurring disputes, making it difficult to reach a comprehensive settlement.
While the world has been watching talks aimed at ending the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, which has entered its fourth year, Central Asian countries have been quietly working to lay the long-standing border dispute—sometimes bloody—to rest. The tripartite summit between the leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in the Tajik city of Khujand outlines a new chapter for Central Asia’s future, embodying a diplomatic victory for the involved states toward achieving stability in the region amidst changing regional and global dynamics.
Roots of the Border Conflict among Central Asian Countries
The Fergana Valley, where the borders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan meet, has been the site of a longstanding historical border dispute since these countries gained independence from the Soviet Union. This is fueled by ambitions to seize water resources, as the valley is a fertile area with excellent agricultural conditions. It is a major producer of cotton, wheat, raw silk, and fresh and dried fruits, surrounded by the majestic Tian Shan mountains, and fed by the waters of the Syr Darya and Naryn rivers, making its fertile lands ideal for farming and livestock. The cities in this valley, rich in history and architectural heritage, include Andijan in the northeast, which has been a vital point along ancient caravan routes connecting China to Central Asia since the 9th century BCE, a significance that persists today as part of the Silk Road and as a major industrial center.
All of the above makes the Fergana Valley the most densely populated region in Central Asia, leading to repeated conflicts over access to valuable agricultural land and water resources. The intensity of the border dispute has been exacerbated by the unique historical backdrop of diverse ethnic and linguistic groups living in close proximity. During periods of instability, borders established in the 1990s acquire new significance, and terrorist activities rise, fostering chaos. Although skirmishes over land or water resources in this area have been frequent, the most significant violent conflicts erupted in 2021 and 2022 when Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan engaged in large-scale armed clashes, resulting in significant casualties and political and economic tensions among the three countries.
The Path to Negotiations Among Central Asian Countries
Over the past decades, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan have sought to resolve ongoing disputes stemming from Soviet-era borders in the Fergana Valley. Serious trilateral negotiations to establish a meeting point among the Central Asian nations began in 2002, culminating in the signing of a treaty on the Uzbek-Tajik border covering 1,104 kilometers. However, talks on specific parts of this border stalled after 2002, while discussions with Kyrgyzstan (2000-2016) yielded limited results.
However, following Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s ascension to the presidency of Uzbekistan, a significant shift occurred in regional diplomacy, prioritizing open dialogue and building trust with neighboring countries. Uzbekistan’s 2017-2021 development strategy formalized laws concerning international borders as a key objective for the country. Consequently, a border treaty was signed between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in 2017, covering 1,170 kilometers, followed by an additional agreement in 2022 to complete the demarcation across 1,476 kilometers. Meanwhile, renewed negotiations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in 2016 resulted in the resolution of 192.3 kilometers of undetermined sections, culminating in a treaty in 2018.
Perhaps the most significant progress in the path of border negotiations among Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan began with the agreement between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in 2023. In December 2024, during a high-level meeting in St. Petersburg, agreements were reached to complete the negotiations. On January 8 of this year, representatives from the three countries’ governments met at the proposed border crossing to assess Uzbekistan’s proposal regarding the Friendship Monument, which was unanimously adopted. This led to the signing of a bilateral border treaty in mid-March between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which included agreements on water, energy, and transport infrastructure, and the reopening of two border crossings linking the two countries for the first time in nearly four years. These efforts culminated in a historic tripartite summit in Khujand at the end of the same month, marking a significant achievement given that nearly half of the border was disputed just three years prior, with the worst clashes occurring between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2021 and 2022.
Significance of the Historical Tripartite Summit
Central Asia has long been one of the least integrated regions globally, lacking a regional leadership institution, with regional cooperation often driven by external powers such as Russia, the US, the EU, and China rather than internal initiatives. Thus, the trilateral efforts of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan in recent years, alongside increased participation among all five Central Asian countries, represent a significant shift toward regional integration, indicating that true political will and determination to create a more stable and prosperous region are finally starting to take shape.
On March 31 of this year, the city of Khujand (formerly Leninabad) in Tajikistan hosted a tripartite summit attended by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan, President Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan, and President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan. This historic summit represented the culmination of the border delineation process among the three countries after decades of dispute, marking a pivotal moment in the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia.
The summit successfully reached a formal agreement on the border point in the Fergana Valley, and to commemorate this achievement, the leaders agreed to inaugurate a “Monument of Friendship” at the convergence point of the borders of the three countries, located in Uzbekistan’s Fergana region, Kyrgyzstan’s Batken region, and Tajikistan’s Isfara region, as a symbol of enduring friendship, good neighborliness, and mutual understanding among Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The summit included cultural activities showcasing traditional crafts, national cuisines, and folk costumes, accompanied by a musical event featuring performances by artists from the three countries to celebrate this historic occasion.
Accordingly, the Khujand Declaration and other regional agreements offer opportunities to resolve long-standing regional disputes, enhance regional cooperation, and address historical grievances that have fueled instability in the region for decades; focusing on the broader goal of regional economic and structural integration among the Central Asian republics through vital projects, foremost among them the ” CASA-1000″ energy project, linking Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to enhance cross-border trade and investment.
With this historic summit, the leaders of the Central Asian republics transcended diplomatic symbolism by announcing their commitment to enhancing neighborhood relations and cooperation across various fields, from transport to infrastructure and commercial investment, affirming that a key prerequisite for cooperation and communication is ensuring enduring peace, fostering regional integration, and resolving all issues among them through peaceful dialogue.
Future of Trilateral Relations Amid Historical Conflicts
The aforementioned agreements between the three Central Asian countries represent a crucial turning point in regional politics, revealing the increasing readiness of the republics in the region to resolve their past disputes independently. The Friendship Monument built at the border crossing signals a commitment to ongoing collaboration and mutual respect for each country’s sovereignty. With the border demarcations now finalized, regional trade between the countries can expand, especially as bilateral trade volumes increase, surpassing one billion dollars between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and reaching 500 million dollars between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan aim to raise their trade volume to 500 million dollars by 2030.
At the end of last year, work commenced on a railway line connecting China to Uzbekistan via Kyrgyzstan, which will improve goods flow between the three countries and ultimately link China and Kyrgyzstan to South Asia. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan has recently begun constructing new railway lines with Afghanistan, extending to Pakistan and its ports on the Arabian Sea. Despite these positive developments, opposing winds reveal several challenges, chiefly:
Public Opposition: Public perception regarding the recent border agreements varies, tied to people’s concerns over territorial concessions and resource management, which could indicate resistance to these agreements, particularly in areas still suffering from historical grievances. Should opposition escalate, it may undermine implementation efforts.
Water Resource Disputes: Water scarcity in Central Asia continues to pose a critical issue, particularly in the Fergana Valley, where Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan control upstream resources while Uzbekistan relies on access to downstream resources; thus, historical disputes over water rights could exacerbate tensions among the three countries and threaten the implementation of the Khujand Declaration’s principles.
Rising External Competition: Regional and international powers vying for the region’s wealth, such as China, Russia, and the United States—along with Turkey, Iran, the European Union, and Gulf states—may seek to influence the border agreements among the Central Asian countries for strategic gains; prompting them to exert political, economic, or military pressure on the five republics to protect their interests in the region, potentially complicating regional decision-making and the actual implementation of the commitments made by Central Asian countries under these treaties.
The Troubled Security Environment: The border regions among Central Asian countries, particularly in the Fergana Valley, face numerous security threats due to the rise of extremism, terrorist operations, organized crime, and cross-border trafficking. Poor governance and economic disparities exacerbate these security risks.
Implementation Challenges: Although the three parties have signed agreements ensuring their borders and interests in the historically disputed region, the practical implementation of these agreements requires political will and ongoing coordination; as the long-term impact of these agreements depends on effective execution, economic cooperation, and sustained political commitment. Any setbacks could reignite regional tensions.
Conclusion
Resolving one of the most complex regional disputes in Central Asia marks the beginning of a new era of cooperation and stability among Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. The Khujand Declaration, along with the agreed-upon border crossing, represents a historic achievement in Central Asian diplomacy aimed at enhancing political relationships and prospects for economic integration. Nonetheless, ongoing challenges are associated with border security issues such as human trafficking, terrorist activities, irregular migration, as well as climate change, environmental damage, and resource management. Thus, the recent agreement at the Khujand summit to demarcate the long-disputed borders is a significant step toward enhancing regional security in Central Asia, yet it necessitates careful policy formulation to ensure the implementation of these promises and prevent renewed tensions. Therefore, it can be stated that the future of Central Asia hinges on the ability of the three Central Asian governments to implement border agreements, the effectiveness of economic projects, and the sustainability of dispute resolution mechanisms. While the diplomatic efforts of Central Asian states aim to ensure regional security and stability, external powers will continue to influence the region, exploiting not only the conflict but perhaps the anticipated peace to achieve their objectives.
