In October 2024, some Ukrainian voices have intensified calls to expand the fighting to include Belarus, Russia’s ally. This was reflected in statements by Ukrainian parliament member Oleg Dunda, who asserted that such action would “deal a blow” to Russia.
These calls align with earlier announcements from Minsk, which reported movements of the Ukrainian military along the border with Belarus since the end of June in the Zhytomyr region specifically. Kyiv denied this, with the border guard stating that its operations are aimed at securing the border with Belarus. In contrast, Ukraine accuses Minsk of mobilizing its military, particularly special forces, as well as military equipment in the Gomel region near Ukraine’s northern border.
A Dual Alliance:
The developments between Ukraine and Belarus raise various implications, especially as they occur at a time when Ukraine is receiving Western military aid, and accusations between Kyiv and Minsk are growing. The most significant implications can be summarized as follows:
Political Alignment Between Moscow and Minsk: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is striving to maintain close ties with Moscow due to Russia’s support for his current regime. The Russian backing played a crucial role in his endurance against the mass protests in Belarusian cities in 2020, which objected to the presidential election results that led to his victory.
It is noteworthy that Russia and Belarus share the “Union State” treaty, signed in 1999, which established several federal institutions between the two countries, including a Supreme State Council consisting of presidents, prime ministers, and the parliamentary heads from both nations, with each state holding one vote in the council, necessitating unanimous decisions.
Additionally, a Council of Ministers and a bicameral federal parliament were established, consisting of an elected House of Representatives with 75 deputies from Russia and 28 from Belarus elected by the public in both countries, and an equally composed Federation Council (36 members from each country) elected by the respective upper legislative bodies. However, the Union Parliament has never been activated.
Russia and Belarus outlined several guidelines under this treaty concerning economic, administrative, and commercial integration between the two nations, and this cooperative framework surpasses other regional frameworks involving Russia and other countries from the so-called “Soviet space.”
The treaty has led to various forms of cooperation, such as the development of terrestrial connectivity projects, efforts to unify currency and energy cooperation, as well as harmonizing tax and customs systems.
Military Support from Moscow to Minsk: Moscow and Minsk are bound by strategic defense cooperation agreements. In this context, Russian officials have repeatedly stated their intent to intervene to protect Belarus if Kyiv launches any attacks against the borders separating Ukraine and Belarus. On September 20, 2024, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned the West and Ukraine of “catastrophic consequences” should Kyiv move against its ally Belarus, following Ukraine’s unexpected attack in Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024.
It’s important to mention that military collaboration with Moscow has deepened, and Russian confidence in Minsk has grown. Although Moscow announced that the tactical weapons it deployed in Belarus in April 2024 would remain under its command, the Belarusian General Staff claimed that its soldiers are trained to use those systems if necessary. Furthermore, Lukashenko requested support from Moscow when the EU and the U.S. imposed economic sanctions on his government due to his re-election and the violent crackdown on protests against the results. Moscow declared its readiness to militarily support Lukashenko if requested to ensure the country’s security.
Ukraine’s Attempt to Involve NATO in the Conflict: Belarusian analysts believe that if the Russian and Belarusian reports regarding Kyiv’s intention to launch an attack on Belarus are accurate, this might reflect Ukraine’s desire to draw NATO into the ongoing military conflict between Ukraine and Russia directly, which could give NATO a reason to intervene militarily on Ukraine’s behalf. Minsk has reported an increase in gatherings of Ukrainian forces at its borders, further bolstered by many drones, some of which violate Belarusian airspace. However, Kyiv denies these claims, asserting that it has “not and will not take any hostile actions against the people of Belarus.”
Contradictory Implications:
The following are some key implications arising from the tensions between Ukraine and Belarus:
Mutual Accusations Between Ukraine and Belarus: The Ukrainian border guard spokesperson confirmed that Minsk reiterates accusations that Kyiv intends to launch attacks against its territory to justify any future military maneuvers against it. Kyiv has stated multiple times that Minsk’s current actions are part of a media campaign against Ukraine in collaboration with Moscow.
The Ukrainian border guard is securing the border with a limited number of personnel, considering Minsk a key participant in the war being waged against it, along with concerns from the Ukrainian side about the recurrent military exercises taking place on Belarusian territory in collaboration with Russia. The most recent of those exercises was the tactical nuclear drills held by both sides in Russia on June 11, 2024. In addition, Moscow’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil marked the first time since the Soviet Union’s collapse that Russia has stationed nuclear weapons outside its borders.
Belarusian media’s campaigns against Ukraine have continued for years; in 2021, Minsk closed its borders, citing weapons smuggling from Ukraine. Minsk accused Kyiv and the West of supporting the opposition to overthrow the government. This is reminiscent of the accusations Minsk made when protests against Lukashenko erupted in 2020, where it circulated information regarding Western attempts at military intervention through the borders with Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland. Lukashenko relies on Russian support and defense agreements with Putin to uphold his regime in the face of Western calls for political change in Minsk.
Strained Relations Between Belarus and Neighboring Countries: Belarus’s relationships with its neighbors have been affected by the ongoing war in Ukraine. The chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces, General Pavel Muraveiko, asserted that neighboring countries harbor animosity toward Minsk, adding that these countries have sought to hinder Belarus’s attempts at rapprochement with China by delaying its accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. However, this effort failed, and Minsk joined the organization in July 2024.
Continued Belarusian Support for Moscow: Minsk has continued to support Moscow despite the economic losses it has suffered since the start of the Russian military operation in February 2022. Concurrently, the Belarusian government sees not supporting the Russian army and preventing any attacks against it from its borders as “treason.” Belarusian support extended to intercepting Ukrainian missiles at the war’s outset, and Minsk even attacked Ukrainian territory when Ukraine attempted to strike it with Tochka-U missiles.
Belarus considers the Russian military campaign in Eastern Ukraine vital for its national security and believes that Moscow is defending Belarus through this campaign. Notably, the Belarusian president, his wife, and some close associates are under U.S. sanctions, while European countries have prevented Belarusian banks from connecting to the SWIFT system, depriving it of billions in euros, and the World Bank has ceased supporting its projects in Belarus.
Belarus is closely associated with Moscow concerning religious doctrine, linguistic ties, and geographic proximity, as both peoples share Slavic ancestry and predominantly adhere to Russian Orthodox Christianity. The inter-trade rate between the two countries is significant, with Russia controlling 50% of Minsk’s foreign trade. Minsk benefits from inter-trade agreements, acquiring natural gas from Russia in its local currency, and gains preferential treatment in using Russian ports in the Baltic Sea, which is crucial for Belarus as a landlocked country. This may explain its direct intervention in the war; U.S. data at the war’s onset indicated that around 10% of Russian missiles were launched from Belarusian territory.
In conclusion, it can be said that Belarus will continue to support Moscow despite the European and Western pressures on Minsk, attempting to repay the favor and give the “Union State” treaty renewed momentum for maneuvering while enduring economic sanctions on both nations, benefiting trade-wise from Russian proximity to China in order to mitigate its losses and preserve its gains from rapprochement with Moscow. However, it is unlikely that matters will escalate to direct confrontations between the two parties, as it is not in their interests to open a new front in the war.
