Indonesia has sought to maintain balanced relations with major international powers, including Russia, despite the ongoing repercussions of the Ukrainian conflict and the pressures exerted by Western powers on various international actors to sever ties with Moscow. This Indonesian interest in developing relations with Moscow has recently emerged through joint military exercises conducted between the two countries in November. On November 18, 2024, the Indonesian president indicated Jakarta’s eagerness to obtain membership in the BRICS group.
Notable rapprochement
Indonesia enjoys a long-standing historical relationship with Russia; the Soviet Union supported Indonesia’s independence and the end of Dutch colonialism there during a United Nations Security Council meeting in January 1946. The Soviet Union deemed Dutch actions in Indonesia a threat to peace and security and requested the UN Security Council to take measures to put an end to them. Following Indonesia’s independence, Moscow quickly established diplomatic relations with Jakarta. As tensions and competition intensify among the Western states, China, and Russia, Indonesia aims to adopt a balanced policy among the competing major powers.
In this context, Indonesia has recently enacted several policies showing its desire to strengthen its relationship with Russia:
Maintaining a neutral stance on the Ukrainian war: Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Indonesia has committed to a position of neutrality. Former Indonesian President Joko Widodo, along with the current president and then-Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, traveled to Kyiv and Moscow in mid-2022 to encourage both sides to increase their agricultural exports to developing countries, aiming to alleviate rising prices that these nations faced due to the economic fallout from the war. In June 2023, then-Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto proposed a peace plan at the Shangri-La Security Dialogue in Singapore, which included a ceasefire, the establishment of a demilitarized zone, and the deployment of UN peacekeeping forces. However, his plan did not receive support from Russia, Ukraine, the United States, or European nations.
Sustaining political rapprochement: Jakarta has resisted significant Western pressure to stop engaging with Russia and to join the Western sanctions regime against Moscow. Jakarta has continuously pursued political openness toward Moscow, exemplified by the ongoing visits to Russia. For instance, new Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visited Moscow in July 2024 and held a high-level meeting with Russian President Putin. In remarks to the press after his visit, Prabowo described Russia as Indonesia’s close friend and emphasized his urgent desire to strengthen and sustain Indonesian-Russian relations during his presidency, justifying this by stating that Moscow has supported Jakarta at various stages in its history. Indonesian reports confirmed that the visit concluded with an agreement between Russia and Indonesia to enhance cooperation in food security, energy, and education, as well as Moscow’s promise to assist Jakarta in nuclear energy development.
Conducting joint naval exercises: Indonesia and Russia held their first joint naval exercises from November 4, 2024, lasting five days. The exercises were conducted in two phases at a naval base in Surabaya and in the Java Sea. Russia sent three corvettes, a medium tanker, a military helicopter, and a tugboat, according to the Indonesian navy. Analysts suggest that these joint exercises signify a significant shift in foreign policy by Prabowo, who is committed to strengthening Jakarta’s alliances with major powers.
Jakarta’s eagerness to join the BRICS group: The BRICS group has become a focal point in the growing ties between Moscow and Jakarta. During the Indonesian-Brazilian business forum held in Rio de Janeiro on November 18, 2024, President Prabowo Subianto stated that his nation is committed to obtaining BRICS membership, highlighting its importance to the global economy. Subianto noted that this ambition has been part of his vision since 2014 when he first ran for the presidency. Indonesia officially applied for BRICS membership in October during the group’s summit in Kazan, Russia. Moscow appears supportive of Jakarta’s efforts to join the group.
Jakarta’s Motivations
Indonesia aims to achieve several key objectives through the enhancement of its bilateral partnership with Moscow:
Prabowo’s response to regional tensions: The rapprochement with Russia reflects Indonesia’s efforts to enhance its defense capabilities in response to rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. For example, during a meeting in July 2024 with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Indonesian President Prabowo discussed the potential transfer and sharing of Russian defense technology with Indonesia. The new president hopes to strengthen Indonesia’s military capabilities by establishing an independent defense industry. This drive stems from Prabowo’s military background and his understanding of significant security challenges threatening his country, especially amid escalating US-China rivalry and increasing Chinese military activities in Southeast Asia aimed at asserting dominance over the South China Sea.
Additionally, all countries in the region, including those previously known for their military neutrality, like Japan, are looking to enhance their military capabilities, thus introducing a unique arms race across the entire region. Despite many Western nations, such as France, vying for influence in Indonesia, the current president favors Russia and does not maintain good relations with the French side, as evidenced by the absence of a senior French official at his presidential inauguration in October.
Reviving the defense partnership between Russia and Indonesia: Indonesia is one of Russia’s most significant defense customers in Southeast Asia, having purchased Russian fighter jets, helicopters, and armored vehicles. However, in 2021, under Prabowo’s defense portfolio, Indonesia halted a deal to purchase eleven Sukhoi Su-35 fighters due to fears of potential US sanctions. With President Trump potentially returning to power in the United States, there is an expectation that many countries, including Indonesia, could revive their defense partnerships with Russia without fear of sanctions. Initial indicators of improvement in military partnerships between Jakarta and Moscow emerged during Prabowo’s visit to Moscow in July 2024, where he encouraged Russian defense companies to participate in a major defense exhibition in Indonesia initially scheduled for November, but later rescheduled for January 2025.
Addressing Indonesian economic challenges: Indonesia is seeking Russia’s assistance to mitigate rising food and energy prices and to resolve healthcare workforce shortages. Russia is a primary supplier of several key agricultural and food products to Indonesia, including wheat, vegetable oil, and fertilizers—essential for Indonesia’s food security. Indonesian consumers have faced rising prices for these three goods since Russia invaded Ukraine. Regarding healthcare, Indonesia suffers from a significant shortage of doctors, particularly in rural areas. The Indonesian president aims to address this shortage by providing a broad scholarship program for Indonesian students to study abroad, including at Russian medical universities.
Developing Indonesia’s energy sector: During his recent visit to Moscow in July, Prabowo and Putin discussed possibilities for bilateral cooperation to help Indonesia establish a civilian nuclear energy industry. Nuclear energy could alleviate the country’s energy crisis while helping it achieve its climate goals. Indonesia has expressed interest in acquiring Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), designed to be more cost-effective and safer than conventional nuclear power plants. However, the substantial costs of transferring this technology and Jakarta’s limited expertise in this area have hindered the realization of this goal. Russia is a global leader in designing these small reactors, making it an ideal partner for Indonesia, particularly as it offers this technology at a lower cost than its Western competitors.
Prabowo’s attempt to assert independence from the West: New Indonesian President Subianto appears to believe that Jakarta has adopted pro-Western policies that favor the United States and its allies, a situation he disapproves of. Analysts posit that this perspective is influenced by his military and religious background, which suggests that an alliance with the West would incur losses for Indonesia. His proponent factions resist overtly displaying a direct alliance with Washington, particularly following the onset of the war in Gaza and extensive criticism of the US’s supportive role for Israel in this conflict. Furthermore, the prevailing tension in Chinese and Russian relations with the United States and its allies negatively affects overall regional stability.
Reaffirming Indonesia’s commitment to a neutral political approach: Prabowo’s visit to Russia in July followed just two months after his trip to China—his first foreign visit after a resounding victory in the February presidential elections. In November 2024, he reiterated his visit to China, followed by a trip to Washington. All these visits reflect Jakarta’s intent to adopt balanced policies with all powers and avoid antagonizing any party to safeguard its diverse interests.
Potential for engaging Russia in advocating for the end of the Gaza war: Prabowo is likely to focus more on the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the upcoming months, as this issue stirs strong feelings in Indonesia, which has a Muslim majority. With President Trump back in power and Russia joining negotiations to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon, the current Indonesian president may view Moscow as a potential ally through which Jakarta could cooperate to make progress on this issue.
Conclusion
The largest economy in Southeast Asia maintains a neutral foreign policy that refrains from aligning with any party in the Ukrainian conflict or in the competition between Washington and Beijing. However, the new Indonesian President, Prabowo Subianto, who has pledged to be more assertive on the global stage, is expected to continue his efforts to strengthen ties between Moscow and Jakarta while maintaining good relations with both Beijing and Washington, considering his military and political backgrounds.
