The “Guardians of Religion” organization, which has pledged allegiance to “al-Qaeda,” announced its dissolution on January 28, 2025, following the fall of President “Bashar al-Assad.” In its statement, it said, “After the victory over a tyrant among the darkest tyrants of modern times… and due to these developments on the Sham front, and by a decree from the overall leadership of the jihadist organization al-Qaeda, we announce the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion, the al-Qaeda branch in Syria.” This announcement raises questions about the reasons behind the organization’s decision to dissolve itself at this particular time.
Explanatory Factors
Several factors contributed to the announcement of the dissolution of the “Guardians of Religion” at this moment, including:
Adapting to Political Transformations in Syria: The decision to dissolve the organization coincided with its first official statement after the fall of “Assad” and the rise to power of armed factions such as “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.” Many organizations operating in Syria see this context as an opportunity to reintroduce their ideas and advance their political agendas. The dissolution statement emphasized the necessity of applying Islamic sharia in Syria and indicated that recent developments were the motivating factor for this decision. Furthermore, the announcement aligns with the call from the transitional phase leader in Syria, “Ahmad al-Shara,” for the dissolution of armed organizations; the dissolved organization urged “the dignitaries of Sham and those prominent in the scene” to “establish the religion and implement the sharia of the Lord of the Worlds.”
Disintegration of the “Guardians of Religion” Organizational Structure: The dissolution announcement comes at a time when the organization is facing organizational fragility due to U.S. military strikes. The group is under pressure from the international coalition that monitors the movements of its leaders and continues to target them with ongoing airstrikes, resulting in the deaths of several leaders, including “Khaled al-Aarouri,” known as “Abu al-Qassam al-Jordani,” the deputy commander, as well as influential religious figures “Abu Abdul Rahman al-Makki” and “Abu Muhammad al-Sudani.” Additionally, many of the organization’s leaders remain imprisoned in “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” jails, including “Abu Basir al-Dairi,” “Khalad al-Jufai,” “Abu Mus’ab al-Turki,” and “Abu Abdullah al-Souri,” the son of “Abu Firas al-Suri,” one of the prominent figures in “al-Qaeda.”
Declining Role of the Organization After the Fall of “Assad”: The presence of the “Guardians of Religion” has become a burden on the current Syrian leadership, which is preoccupied with major issues, including strengthening communication and coordination with external parties and providing sufficient guarantees regarding the control of militias in Syria to prevent it from becoming a launchpad for operations that could threaten international security. Consequently, the “Guardians of Religion” have lost significance and their role within the strategy of “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,” which previously benefited from their existence by presenting a less extremist image to the world and serving as a counterbalance to the expansion of “al-Qaeda” and ISIS.
Reaching an Agreement with “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham”: It appears that the “Guardians of Religion” reached a deal or truce with “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” to reorganize itself. This followed a meeting between the group’s leaders and “al-Shara” in Idlib Province, where an agreement was made to dissolve armed groups in Syria and surrender their weapons. Thus, the decision to dissolve the “Guardians of Religion” seems aimed at removing any justification for continuing the fight against the organization, especially since U.S. conditions on “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” are strict regarding fighting “ISIS” and “al-Qaeda.” The “Guardians of Religion” also seek to give “Tahrir al-Sham” a chance to control the situation. In this context, “Ahmad al-Shara,” the transitional phase leader in Syria, hopes to reassure external powers that there are no longer branches or organizations affiliated with al-Qaeda in Syria, which could help remove “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” from the list of terrorist organizations.
Possible Scenarios
Three potential scenarios can be anticipated for the future activities of the “Guardians of Religion” in Syria after its dissolution:
Integration of the “Guardians of Religion” into the New Administration: This means that the “Guardians of Religion” will respond to “al-Shara’s” call to surrender weapons, renounce violence, and integrate into the new security and military institution (the army). However, this scenario may be difficult to achieve given the stance of the United States towards al-Qaeda, as the “Guardians of Religion” are considered an internationally monitored organization, and the U.S. continues to carry out airstrikes against their locations in Idlib. Washington seems to intend for these strikes to send a message to the transitional government in Syria that it still considers this organization a terrorist one.
Defection of Elements from the Organization and Their Integration into ISIS: This scenario suggests that the announcement of the organization’s dissolution might push discontented elements rejecting the decision to join other groups, including ISIS, which continues to try to expand its activities in the post-“Assad” period. The areas controlled by the new administration are now surrounded by desert, potentially facilitating attacks by ISIS cells against elements of the new administration, especially given the historical animosity between ISIS and other factions that have recently integrated into the Syrian Ministry of Defense.
Return of the Organization to Fighting in Syria in the Future: This scenario implies that al-Qaeda will not disappear from the Syrian scene; the “Guardians of Religion” called in their dissolution statement for not laying down arms, presenting a dilemma for the new leadership. The “Guardians of Religion” have not abandoned their vision of preserving their objectives, particularly since the jihadist situation in Syria resembles the presence of the Taliban in Afghanistan; that is, al-Qaeda will remain present, perhaps in an unseen manner—Syria holds significant importance for al-Qaeda, being regarded as the “crown jewel” in the confrontation with Israel. With changing circumstances, the organization might announce its existence again, as its core project revolves around the Levant concerning the Palestinian cause, making it susceptible to internal, regional, and international transformations and dynamics.
Scenario of Return
In summary, the third scenario, “the return of the Guardians of Religion to fighting,” is the most likely for the future of the organization in Syria; the group may operate under a new name. Despite the “Guardians of Religion” announcing their dissolution, the political situation in Syria remains fragile, especially in the absence of sufficient guarantees that armed organizations will not resume fighting against the Syrian regime. The transitional government in Syria continues to face major challenges in controlling the activities of armed groups, including Kurdish and Shiite militias, along with new militias supporting the “Assad” regime.
On January 25, 2025, a new Iraqi militia under the name “Kata’ib Awliya al-Haqq” announced its establishment, further complicating the military landscape. Additionally, calls for violence have increased from former loyalists of “Assad,” mainly from the Alawite community, who demanded to take up arms against forces led by “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” in the coastal provinces of Syria, such as Tartus, Latakia, and Homs, reflecting the ongoing tension and instability in the country.
