Swing States: How Will the Result of the 2024 U.S. Election Be Decided?
While approximately 240 million Americans are eligible to vote in this year’s U.S. elections, a relatively small number of people will ultimately decide who the next president of the United States will be due to the phenomenon known as “swing states.” These states swing between supporting the Republican candidate at times and the Democratic candidate at others, as reflected in polls. They are considered the key to the White House.
These states play a critical role in determining the winner of the U.S. presidential election. There are seven swing states in the 2024 election: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—often called the Rust Belt states—along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
The unpredictability in polling and the uncertainty about which candidate will win these states means that both the campaign of former Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris are working hard to win over voters in these states.
Purple States:
Swing states are known in American political discourse as “battleground states” or “purple states,” where both major parties enjoy nearly equal levels of support among voters, with Democrats and Republicans polling within a few percentage points of each other. Unlike “safe states,” which lean heavily toward either the Republican Party (red states) or the Democratic Party (blue states), swing states are characterized by the following:
Constant Changes: The main feature of voting in these states is continuous fluctuation, meaning polls often fail to predict the winner accurately. While polls in July 2024 indicated that six swing states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—were leaning toward Trump (even though they were crucial to his loss against Biden in 2020), polls the following month showed these states shifting toward the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Fierce Competition: Since the margins between candidates are tight, these states are more likely to witness intense statewide races in upcoming midterm elections. In presidential elections, real electoral battles take place in these states, with each campaign doing everything possible to secure Electoral College votes. Most states use the “winner-takes-all” system to allocate their electoral votes, prompting candidates to intensify their campaigns, dedicate a majority of their ads, and hold rallies and visits in these states to win.
Shifts Over Time: The status of swing states isn’t permanent. Some states move from being swing states to “safe” states, locked in for one party, and vice versa. For example, New Mexico and Iowa were swing states in the 2000 and 2004 elections but have since become safe. Similarly, Arizona and Georgia transitioned from being swing states to becoming more secure over the past two decades.
Impact of Election Issues: Swing states are often the most affected by election issues and American public opinion problems. These states tend to dominate discussions in party primaries, with key issues carried into the general campaign.
For instance, the so-called Rust Belt states, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—previously known as heavy manufacturing hubs—have been heavily impacted by economic crises in the U.S. As a result, candidates attempt to appeal to voters in these states by presenting their plans to address unemployment and reopen factories that had shut down after industries moved to countries like China and Mexico.
Demographic Factors: Movement of people across the U.S. for jobs, retirement, or other reasons can cause demographic shifts, including changes in the racial and ethnic makeup of a state, as well as migration patterns. These factors can eventually alter the political fabric of a state and its voters’ leanings, sometimes pushing a state into swing territory.
The Harris Factor:
Election analysts have long predicted that the 2024 race would hinge on a small number of swing states. However, the Democratic momentum following the withdrawal of current President Joe Biden and the selection of his Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate has turned several states into even more competitive battlegrounds.
Estimates suggest that before Biden’s withdrawal, polls showed Trump leading in most, if not all, of the seven swing states. But since Harris took over as the Democratic candidate, prediction models have increasingly favored her, particularly as her candidacy has energized young voters and voters from immigrant backgrounds and positively impacted the unity of the Democratic Party, thereby boosting its mobilization efforts.
Electoral Map:
Seven states have become the focal point for all Americans and the campaigns of both Trump and Harris. These states hold 93 electoral votes in the Electoral College, which are likely to be the decisive factor in either Trump or Harris’s victory.
Below, we examine the key reasons that are driving the swing in votes in these states:
Arizona and the Gamble Between Immigration and Abortion: Arizona is classified as a swing state, having previously been a Republican stronghold. However, it saw an exception in the 2020 election when Biden broke Arizona’s Republican support, winning the state by a margin of 0.3%. The same happened in 1996 when Bill Clinton won the state during his re-election. The swing in Arizona is attributed to two main factors: First, the state experiences strong demographic diversity, ranging from whites to African Americans, along with Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Second, the growing number of independent or unaffiliated voters plays a role. The Independent Voter Project estimates that the percentage of registered non-affiliated voters reached around 29.15% as of November 2023.
If potential voting trends seem perplexing due to demographic and partisan factors, immigration and abortion are two major issues that significantly impact voter behavior in the November 5, 2024, election. Republicans are banking on this border state, which has suffered from Biden’s Democratic administration’s immigration policies. With Arizona residents frustrated by the increasing number of immigrants, Trump’s campaign hopes immigration will be a decisive issue for a third of Arizona voters to back the Republican Party. According to a poll conducted in February 2024, immigration and the economy are top priorities for Arizona residents.
On the other hand, Democrats are betting on winning the state due to recent polls showing Harris gaining ground, particularly due to the abortion issue. She led Trump in some polls by a narrow margin of 0.7%. Despite Republicans outnumbering Democrats in registered party members (35% to 29%), Republicans lag behind in polls, with 49% of Arizona residents supporting abortion rights compared to 46% who oppose it. This pushes Democrats to intensify their efforts to win the state.
In light of this, Harris’s campaign has announced that it will allocate $50 million out of $370 million for swing states, specifically for ads in Arizona, while Trump has allocated $2 million for the same state.
Georgia: An Open Ground for Candidates: Georgia is a prime example of a state transitioning from a safe to a swing state. Biden won the state in 2020 against Trump, while Trump won it in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. In June 2024, U.S. News classified the state as “even” for the 2024 presidential election, despite one-third of its population being African American, one of the largest such proportions in the country. This demographic helped Biden win in 2020. However, Democrats have concerns about declining enthusiasm for Biden, with hopes that Harris will reignite support from this crucial voting bloc.
Despite a July 2024 New York Times poll showing Trump leading Biden by 49% to 44%, another poll indicated Trump leading Harris by just 0.6% in Georgia, suggesting that the state remains open for both candidates.
Observers believe Georgia will be a pivotal battleground for both candidates. Trump has made significant efforts to rally voters, holding a large rally in Rome, Georgia, in March 2024. On the other side, Georgia was the first stop on Harris’s campaign tour just three days after the Democratic National Convention.
Wisconsin: Difficult to Predict: Once a solidly blue state, Wisconsin became a swing state when Trump narrowly won it in 2016, marking the first time a Republican had carried it since 1984. Biden reversed that in 2020, winning Wisconsin against Trump, further solidifying its swing-state status.
Wisconsin’s importance in 2024 is enhanced by the Republican decision to host their national convention in Milwaukee in July. Additionally, Harris chose it as the first state she visited after Biden announced his endorsement of her candidacy in July.
Pennsylvania: A Pivotal State: Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, is part of the “blue wall” states, which had consistently voted for Democrats from 1992 until Trump’s victory in 2016. He won Pennsylvania by a mere 0.7% over Hillary Clinton.
Observers see Pennsylvania as crucial to both campaigns because its voters have diverse political leanings. Urban voters, particularly in cities like Philadelphia, tend to be liberal, while rural voters are largely conservative.
Pennsylvania is the most significant of the swing states, with 19 electoral votes. While both candidates aim to win it, the race is tight. According to the New York Times in August 2024, Harris holds a slim 49% to 48% lead over Trump in Pennsylvania. Trump’s campaign is focusing on the senior vote, as more than 2.5 million of the state’s 13 million residents are over 65, a key voting bloc that helped Trump win in 2016.
According to a CNN poll in March, four out of ten Pennsylvania voters consider the economy their top issue, which favors Trump, who is focusing on Biden’s failure to curb high inflation rates.
Nevada: A Delicate Balance: Despite Democratic victories in Nevada in 2016 and 2020, it remains a swing state. Trump feels confident about Nevada because late-2023 polls showed that Nevada voters trust Republicans more to handle issues like the economy, immigration, and education. By mid-July, polls consistently showed Trump leading Biden.
Experts agree that Nevada always exhibits a delicate balance in its electorate, with independents constituting over 30% of voters. Unlike other states, Nevada allows voters dissatisfied with both major-party candidates to select “None of the Above” on their ballots, an official option in the state.
Michigan: The Weight of Arab and Labor Votes: Michigan, a state that used to vote Republican in the 1970s and 1980s, is now classified as a swing state, especially after Biden won it in 2020. Michigan ranks in the top ten states in terms of electoral votes, with 15, making it crucial in the race for the White House.
Michigan is home to a significant Arab American population, estimated at over 211,000 people. Harris hopes to regain the support of Arab voters, who felt marginalized by Biden’s handling of the Gaza war and his strong support for Israel.
In addition to the Arab vote, labor unions play a crucial role in the state, with both Trump and Harris vying for the support of auto workers and truck drivers’ unions.
Despite Harris maintaining a slight lead over Trump (48% to 46%), polls in August 2024 show that about 25% of Michigan voters remain undecided.
North Carolina: Narrowing the Gap: North Carolina has traditionally voted Republican in presidential elections. However, the margins between Democratic and Republican candidates have been narrowing. With 16 electoral votes, the state ranks in the top ten, making it vital for both parties.
As a result, both Trump and Harris have focused heavily on the state. In 2024 alone, Trump has visited North Carolina three times in March, July, and August for campaign rallies where he criticized the Democrats. Similarly, Biden also visited the state multiple times during the year.
Growing Interest:
Given that swing states appear to be the decisive factor for either Trump or Harris’s victory, the implications of the interest in these states are as follows:
Advertising Campaigns and Shuttle Visits: As the presidential election approaches, both campaigns are visiting swing states and launching new advertisements. For example, Vice President Kamala Harris has released a new ad currently airing in swing states focused on housing affordability. In the ad, she promises that if elected, she will build three million new homes and help first-time buyers with down payments, with estimates suggesting the ad cost around $150 million. Additionally, Harris and Walz have launched a bus tour through Georgia. Meanwhile, Trump’s team has continued its campaign, blaming the Biden-Harris administration for inflation.
Special Media Services: Networks such as CBS, NBC, ABC, and Fox have introduced a television service called Swing State Election News to cover local news in swing states, recognizing their importance as key determinants in the U.S. election race. This service will broadcast local news in these states and closely follow campaign activities there.
In summary, the role of swing states in determining the outcome of U.S. presidential elections is continually increasing, supported by significant polarization between the Democratic and Republican parties, as well as the rising number of independents in these states. This suggests that both parties are likely to allocate more resources and time to secure votes in these critical areas.
