Starting January 2025, the United States will once again be under the rule of Donald Trump, which is raising deep concerns within European circles. For the vast majority of Europeans, who preferred Kamala Harris’s victory, Trump’s name is associated with controversial stances and policies regarding both European and transatlantic matters. This return poses complex challenges for Europe, urging it to reassess its foreign policies and strengthen its unity to tackle anticipated changes.
Potential Implications
Trump’s win in the U.S. elections presents intricate challenges for Europe, ranging from collective security and economic issues to the rise of populism and internal divisions.
Concerns Over Reduced U.S. Commitments to European Security: Trump’s victory resurrects European security fears, particularly his previous and current inclination to diminish U.S. obligations towards NATO, which raises increasing anxiety among allies. This concern is exacerbated by the perception of the new U.S. Vice President, James David Vance, as a proponent of abandoning Europe, further fueling doubts about the U.S. commitment to collective defense.
Notably, Trump threatened to leave NATO during his first term and subsequently during his campaign, undermining confidence in Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty, which addresses collective defense. In this context, Finnish Prime Minister Petri Orpo stated on November 7, 2024, that Europe would support Ukraine for as long as necessary, reflecting European commitment to counter any potential decline in U.S. support for Ukraine under Trump. European Council President Charles Michel also emphasized that showing any “weakness” towards authoritarian regimes, such as Russia, could lead to severe repercussions.
Threats of Higher Tariffs: Trump’s threat to impose tariffs of up to 10% on EU imports poses a significant economic challenge, particularly for countries like Germany that heavily rely on exports to the U.S. Some European circles have warned that such measures could lead to a decrease of up to 15% in German exports to the U.S., putting vital industries such as automotive and machinery at great risk.
This trend may prompt EU countries to reassess their trade partnerships and expand relations with countries in Asia and Africa to compensate for potential losses. In these circumstances, analysts believe that a new trade war, if it erupts, could exacerbate economic pressures and deepen European divisions. French President Emmanuel Macron, during the European Political Community meeting in Budapest on November 7, 2024, stated that Europe cannot rely on growth from China or on security provided by the U.S., reflecting the need for economic autonomy in facing Trump’s protectionist trade policies.
Rising Nationalist Sentiments: Trump’s victory offers an opportunity for nationalist and populist forces in Europe to amplify their influence. This was notably evident in the immediate reactions of some European leaders, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who expressed joy over Trump’s win and viewed it as a significant opportunity to forge a new political alliance with the U.S., envisioning a drastic shift in EU policies with Trump in power and four or five national prime ministers in Europe, like Marine Le Pen in France. This public support reflects the internal rift in Europe between countries that view relations with Trump as a chance to enhance their sovereignty and reduce EU influence, and those that perceive a risk of weakening European unity under populist policies. Some analyses suggest that Trump’s victory will also lead to the “normalization” of populist leaders within Europe.
Concerns Over a Deal Regarding Ukraine: Trump’s approach to Russia presents a significant threat to European policies regarding the Ukrainian crisis. European fears are growing that Trump may seek to strike a deal with Putin without considering the interests of Kyiv and neighboring European countries. This scenario places nations like Poland and the Baltic states directly at risk from escalating security threats, potentially driving them to bolster military preparations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s comments on November 7, 2024, were clear when he described any settlement with Russia that includes concessions as “suicidal” for Ukraine and a threat to the safety of the entire continent. This fear of a potential American retreat drives Europe to reassess its strategies for supporting Ukraine.
Marginalization of Europe’s Role in Global Interactions: With Trump’s return, concerns are growing about the reshaping of international relations in ways that marginalize Europe’s role. For example, Emmanuel Macron has called for enhancing the continent’s “strategic independence,” asserting that Europe needs to take an independent stance amid uncertainties regarding American commitments. These statements came during the European Political Community summit in Budapest on November 7, 2024, where he noted that Europeans should not indefinitely delegate their security to the Americans, reflecting fears of a permanent European dependency on the U.S.
This trend signifies the desire of France and other European nations to strengthen their ability to act independently on global issues, including relations with China and Russia, to avoid being mere followers in major international policies. Macron noted that the world is made up of carnivores and herbivores, warning that if Europe chooses to remain herbivores, it risks becoming victims of the carnivores. He stressed the necessity for Europe to defend its interests and values effectively. Additionally, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called for waking up from geopolitical naivety to tackle global risks seriously.
Environmental and Climate Change Challenges: Trump’s victory poses an additional challenge to European environmental and climate policies, particularly given his known opposition to the Paris Climate Agreement, from which he had previously withdrawn. Europe’s climate policies are a cornerstone of its strategy towards achieving the “European Green Deal,” which could face obstacles if the U.S. seeks to undermine international efforts in this area. The EU aims for carbon neutrality by 2050, but Trump’s support for the oil and gas sector may affect the global market and pressure European efforts by increasing competition from traditional energy sources. Moreover, Trump’s protectionist policies could threaten international collaboration on clean technology and hinder partnerships between the EU and the U.S. on innovative renewable energy solutions.
Europe’s Options
In response to Trump’s return to the White House, Europe may adopt a variety of strategies to maintain its balance and protect its interests.
Enhancing Defense Spending: In light of potential new American policies, European leaders recognize the necessity of improving the EU’s self-defense capabilities and reducing reliance on the U.S. In this regard, French President Emmanuel Macron, a prominent advocate of “strategic autonomy,” has called for the development of an independent European defense force capable of protecting the continent’s interests in the event of diminished American support.
Poland has been among the European countries most active in increasing its military spending, allocating over 4% of its GDP to defense, making it a model for building military readiness. European statements emphasize the importance of unity within the EU to collectively enhance defense capabilities while maintaining coordination with NATO, though with a greater reliance on self-initiatives. Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s first defense commissioner, stressed that Europe must “spend more,” not in response to Trump’s demands, but due to threats like Russia, explaining that Russians can produce substantial military capabilities in months compared to European stockpiles. Notably, as of now, eight European countries have not reached the 2% military spending threshold, including heavyweights like Spain and Italy.
Reassessing Europe’s Trade Relations: Europe faces significant economic challenges due to Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on European imports, which increases pressure on vital exports. To improve this situation, European leaders are considering strengthening partnerships with alternative markets, such as Asia and Africa, to ensure the flow of exports and avoid the ramifications of trade disputes with the U.S. Economists believe this step aims to reduce reliance on partnerships with Washington and build more sustainable and independent economic capabilities.
In this context, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s striking statement on November 8, 2024, suggested that instead of asking what the U.S. can do for Europe, the question should be what Europe should do for itself. European efforts will focus on enhancing the integration of the single market, increasing investments in technology and innovation, and stimulating internal markets to ensure economic resilience and improve the competitiveness of European goods. However, the need remains to manage trade tensions with Washington through dialogue, with a focus on avoiding scenarios of an all-out trade war.
Ursula von der Leyen stressed the necessity to act quickly to ensure the European economy remains competitive amid expected American trade policies while working on new trade partnerships to ensure the stability of European markets. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized a significant reduction in European bureaucracy to close the gap that sees Chinese innovations outpacing those of Europeans and Americans investing more than Europeans.
Diplomatic Dialogue with Trump: Despite varying positions, European leaders understand the importance of maintaining dialogue with the United States to ensure transatlantic relations remain stable. Macron was among the first European leaders to congratulate Trump, emphasizing the importance of joint cooperation to protect both European and American interests. Some observers view this move as a desire to keep communication channels open with Trump while avoiding escalation that could harm the partnership between both sides.
Continuous dialogue is seen as a crucial approach to protect Europe from any sudden negative consequences, particularly amidst unpredictable American policies. It may also influence U.S. positions on sensitive issues such as climate, energy, and security. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte emphasized that dialogue with Trump should focus on convincing him of the risks posed by a Russian victory in Ukraine and its impact on U.S. security as well.
Addressing the Challenge of Maintaining European Unity: Countries like Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, and Hungary, under Viktor Orbán, see Trump’s victory as an opportunity to strengthen their relations with Washington in ways that benefit their own interests. Meloni hopes to achieve economic and diplomatic gains through deeper strategic partnerships with the United States, counting on her strong friendship with Elon Musk. Conversely, Orbán will continue to support Trump’s policies as a chance to enhance his political influence within the EU.
Notably, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico likened his assassination attempt to Trump’s during his campaign in July 2024. Some view this trend as potentially deepening divisions within the Union, especially if Trump attempts to exploit the closeness of some European leaders to drive a wedge between them.
Enhancing European Energy Security: In light of potential U.S. policies under Trump, the EU will likely move towards bolstering energy independence by focusing on reducing reliance on external energy sources and diversifying its resources. The “strategic autonomy” policy supported by European leaders like Macron aims to improve Europe’s energy infrastructure and expand the use of renewable energy sources. Europe may seek to enhance its partnerships in this area with African and Middle Eastern countries to ensure energy security away from American political fluctuations. Notably, 45% of Europe’s liquefied natural gas imports in 2023 came from the U.S., which may lead Trump to use liquefied natural gas as a bargaining chip to pressure Europe.
Expanding Europe’s Role on the International Stage: With Trump returning to the White House and likely pursuing unilateral policies, Europe finds itself compelled to strengthen its independent international role to be more effective in regional and international conflicts and to lead diplomatic efforts to prevent the world from slipping into destructive trade or military disputes. However, the challenge is that currently, European leaders face significant hurdles in regaining initiative within their countries, with France and Germany suffering from deep political crises that weaken their capacity to provide clear and cohesive leadership for the EU. Additionally, internal political challenges in Poland may limit the operational latitude of Donald Tusk’s government. Thus, the current situation in Europe calls for unity to create collective leadership that addresses escalating threats and strengthens its international presence.
In conclusion, Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency marks a critical turning point for Europe, representing a dilemma that deepens its internal divisions and imposes tremendous challenges amid Trump’s protectionist policies and his inclination to reduce security commitments towards the continent. Conversely, this may serve as a constructive shock, prompting Europe to reassess its strategies and undertake long-overdue structural reforms to enhance its defense capabilities and economic independence, liberating it from near-total reliance on the U.S. umbrella.
