The Cost of Return: How a Trump Victory Would Challenge America’s Global Role
Democrats are capitalizing on Donald Trump’s approaches to American foreign policy during his time in the White House, which were centered on the slogan “America First” and a focus on internal U.S. issues, to scare voters away from re-electing him. They argue that this would negatively impact America’s leadership on the global stage.
Although it’s difficult to predict the outcome of the upcoming November election, there is a possibility of Trump winning, as he still enjoys high levels of support among American citizens. Despite the criminal charges against him and his threats of retribution against his opponents if he wins, there are warnings that the United States will be in danger domestically, as he may undermine democratic institutions. As for foreign policy, Trump’s previous approach could serve as a guide for what he might do if he returns to office.
Trump’s Approach
Several expectations are associated with former President Donald Trump’s approach if he wins the next presidential election, and these can be outlined as follows:
U.S. Doubts the Importance of NATO: During his previous presidency, Trump threatened NATO member states that the United States would abandon their defense if they did not meet their defense spending obligations, noting that Washington bears a heavy cost defending its European allies. If he wins a new term, he is expected to threaten a U.S. withdrawal from the alliance. However, this idea may face widespread rejection among the American political elite, especially since it would give Moscow greater maneuverability within and beyond Europe, threatening both U.S. allies and American interests.
Escalation of the U.S.-China Conflict: Former President Trump believes that President Biden, who imposed new restrictions on Chinese exports to the U.S. and placed limits on American technological exports to Beijing, has not taken a firm enough stance against the threats China poses to American economic interests. Trump has promised to adopt a tougher approach toward China if he returns to the White House, which would mean resuming the trade war he previously launched against Beijing. Analysts note that Trump’s previous policies failed to balance the trade deficit between the two countries. There is an implicit agreement between Republicans and Democrats that a direct confrontation with Beijing would negatively impact the U.S. before China. Nonetheless, Trump is likely to return to his harsh rhetoric against China, potentially increasing tensions in U.S.-China relations, as Washington generally views Beijing as its primary strategic competitor.
Ending the Russia-Ukraine War: Democrats highlight Trump’s claims that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in a single day, citing his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This raises concerns about the impact on U.S. national security and the continued American support for Ukraine, especially since Republicans in Congress argue that the U.S. cannot continue to support Kyiv indefinitely without a scenario to end the conflict. Trump’s return could lead to increased pressure on Kyiv to end the war and adopt more realistic solutions, something Biden and the Democrats might also do if they win again, given the difficulty of continually convincing the American public to keep diverting taxpayer money to help Kyiv.
Abandonment of Asian Allies: Trump may move towards abandoning U.S. allies in Asia, especially since he believes that Washington’s allies rely on it excessively and should defend themselves against Chinese threats. If this happens, it would give Beijing additional leverage to extend its influence deeper into Asia and increase control over the Indo-Pacific region, restricting maritime navigation freedom.
Neglecting Climate Change Issues: Former President Trump has long opposed the issue of climate change and objected to moving towards a green economy or canceling profitable economic projects under the pretext of environmental protection. He also withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement. If he wins the upcoming presidential election, U.S. cooperation and global commitments regarding climate change could be rolled back.
A U.S. Policy Supporting Israel: The former president took several steps regarding Middle Eastern crises that exacerbated unrest in the region, from withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal to moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing it as Israel’s capital, and neglecting the two-state solution. If Trump wins, it is unlikely that his approach to the region will change, particularly given his statements supporting the ongoing Israeli war against Palestinians in Gaza and advocating a tougher stance to eradicate Hamas. He also threatens to expel Palestinians from the U.S. if in power. It is unlikely that a Trump administration would engage in resolving the conflicts plaguing the Middle East.
Consequences of a Trump Victory
Trump’s anticipated policies would have clear impacts on America’s global role and its relationships with strategic allies, which can be summarized as follows:
Further Damage to U.S. Credibility Globally: The former president does not care much for the traditional foundations of American foreign policy or the importance of values and principles as drivers of U.S. foreign orientations, particularly human rights and related laws. This means that the U.S. would reduce its criticism of human rights violations worldwide, undermining its credibility globally and its leadership of the liberal international order, which it played a key role in establishing after World War II.
Washington’s Allies Adopting a Hedging Strategy: If Trump wins again, it may prompt U.S. allies to adopt a hedging strategy and start looking for alternative allies. In this case, Washington would be giving Moscow and Beijing a golden opportunity to fill the void left by the U.S. Additionally, European allies may move toward increasing their spending to enhance defense capabilities, making them more prepared to defend themselves rather than relying on Washington. They may also seek to strengthen alliances among themselves, whether these alliances are collective or bilateral.
China Potentially Benefiting from Trump’s Return: Despite the expected clash if Trump returns to the White House, it could present a good opportunity for China, especially given Trump’s negative approach towards Washington’s allies. Some argue that Beijing could benefit from the U.S. retreat under Trump, which would encourage the Chinese president to promote his country as a more responsible global power, particularly amid the chaos caused by Trump’s presidency. This could also affect other important issues, such as U.S. policy towards Taiwan.
Growing Doubts About Security Arrangements in Europe: Trump’s return to the White House might increase doubts about security arrangements in Europe, especially given his negative stance towards NATO, as indicated by his recent comments during a February 10, 2024, campaign event in South Carolina. There, he criticized NATO countries that do not meet their obligations to allocate sufficient funds to defense budgets and stated that he would not protect these countries, going so far as to encourage Russia to “do whatever it wants” against them.
Potential for Russia to Gain More Momentum: A new Trump presidency is likely to give Russia more momentum, as Trump does not view Russia as a central threat to Washington. His statements that he is unwilling to help any ally under attack send a message to Moscow that U.S. pressure on it will diminish, allowing Russia to continue its policies in its neighborhood and pursue its strategies in Ukraine.
Fueling Conflicts in the Middle East: Whether Biden or Trump wins, neither will hesitate to use American military force, as was done in Iraq, Syria, the Red Sea, or Yemen to protect U.S. interests. If this continues, it could lead to increased military unrest in the Middle East, especially if Israel follows through on its promises of a large-scale military operation in Lebanon and the U.S. maintains its approach toward Palestine by abandoning the two-state solution or Iran, which is close to acquiring a nuclear bomb that could shift the balance of power in the Middle East.
Inward Focus
In conclusion, former President Trump’s focus on resolving internal American issues, particularly economic problems and border security to appease voters, as well as his legal troubles and desire for revenge against his opponents, will drive him to adopt a more inward-focused approach. This could lead to Washington retreating from some of its global commitments, a trend that has become more apparent in recent years amid its declining influence in various parts of the world, countered by the growing influence of other powers like Russia and China. Given that Trump will work to undermine the bureaucracy of U.S. foreign policy institutions, which previously prevented him from making significant mistakes on certain foreign issues, the likelihood of catastrophic errors on the international stage increases if Trump wins the next presidential election.
