Netanyahu’s Dilemma: Will the “Golden Hour” Define the Future of the “Day After” in Gaza?
Over the past ten months of the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not presented any clear vision for the future of this war or the fate of the “day after” in Gaza. Instead, he has consistently reiterated that the war will only end when Hamas is eradicated, after which a local governing authority in Gaza would be established. This authority would not be hostile to Israel and would retain security responsibilities in the Strip for a period, without any anticipated role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza’s future, according to Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s speech before the U.S. Congress on July 24, 2024, reaffirmed this conclusion. American circles had expected him to present his plan for ending the war and the future of the “day after” in Gaza, but his speech disappointed them. It became clear that Netanyahu does not have a defined vision for these pressing issues, other than the continuation of the war—a stance shaped by the current circumstances, where his political future seems tied to the ongoing state of war in Israel.
As a result, some Western think tanks have shifted focus, suggesting that the discussion about the “day after” is no longer a priority compared to the importance of discussing the arrangements for the day before the “day after,” or “the day in between” (The Day in Between), also referred to as “The Golden Hour,” according to the American RAND Corporation. This “Golden Hour” is expected to begin as the intensity of Israeli military operations in Gaza decreases, which the Israeli military has termed the “third phase” of the war. This “Golden Hour” could either lead to a scenario of “chaos” or pave the way for the form of the “day after.”
The Concept of the “Golden Hour”:
In a book published by the “Army Research Department of the RAND Corporation” in February 2020, titled “Seizing the Golden Hour: Tasks, Organization, and Capabilities Required for the First Phase of Stability Operations,” the term “Golden Hour” was established. According to RAND, this refers to the early phase of post-conflict stabilization, encompassing the organizational actions and capabilities needed to seize this hour and set the conflict-affected state on a path to sustainable peace.
The first to use this term was James Stephenson, the former director of the USAID mission in Iraq, shortly after the U.S. war on Iraq in 2003. He borrowed this term from the medical field, where it describes the minutes following a traumatic injury when proper medical care can mean the difference between life and death. He applied it to the necessity of exploiting that time to put Iraq on the road to sustainable peace.
There is no fixed timeframe for this “Golden Hour,” but the first few weeks and months are the most critical. The “hour” becomes less “golden” in later stages, leading the conflict-ridden state either into stability or chaos.
Applying this concept to the current Gaza war, the “Golden Hour” will occur in the weeks and months immediately following the cessation of intense Israeli military operations in the Strip, but before the official announcement of the end of the war and the start of reconstruction. Practically, this period will fall within what the Israeli military calls the third phase of the war, which it claims to be on the verge of entering, a phase that could extend for a long time.
According to reports from Israeli military sources, the third phase of the war might involve redeploying military forces to the northern front with Lebanon, giving rest to reservists who have fought for months in Gaza, while maintaining a smaller number of troops on the ground. This would allow for precise and limited military operations as needed, based on intelligence.
Although Israeli Broadcasting Authority previously reported that the political level had approved military recommendations to move to the third phase during July 2024, Netanyahu does not appear ready to enter this phase, at least under current circumstances. Transitioning to it could give the opposition and the Israeli public an opportunity to exert more pressure on his government, possibly even leading to the formation of an investigation committee into the events of October 7, 2023. Therefore, it is likely that Netanyahu will only move to this phase after achieving a new military “success” on the ground, such as the assassination of more Hamas leaders or rescuing a large number of hostages in a new military operation. In such a case, public opinion in Israel might shift in his favor, strengthening his political position. Netanyahu might also move to the third phase if he decides to launch a broader war on the Lebanese front.
Gaza’s Administration:
Based on the above and current data, the “day after” in Gaza seems distant for now. This day is supposed to come after the war ends, which Netanyahu has tied to a decisive Israeli victory that ends Hamas’s presence and its weapons in the Strip—a goal many Israeli observers consider unrealistic.
As a result, Western analysts have started discussing the “Golden Hour” in Gaza or the plan for the day before the “day after.” Among them is Dana Stroul, Director of Research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle Eastern Affairs, who mentioned on May 20, 2024, that the scarcity of realistic solutions for the “day after” in Gaza reflects a more troubling lack of planning. She emphasized that the more important issue is “the day in between.” This was also implicitly pointed out by Daniel Byman, Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University, in his recent article on the American magazine Foreign Affairs website on July 30, titled “Can Anyone Govern Gaza? The Treacherous Path to the Day After.”
During the phase these Western experts discuss, Gaza, even with ongoing low-intensity Israeli military operations, will need local governance to manage daily life, distribute food aid, provide basic infrastructure and vital goods such as clean water, electricity, education, transportation, healthcare systems, and so on. The question arises: what authority will organize essential services and respond to the needs of Gaza’s residents as they attempt to rebuild their lives?
Current indications suggest that Israel might take on this burden, as it has not provided an alternative. However, there is a consensus that Israel cannot handle this task, and this could plunge Gaza’s future into chaos. Dana Stroul notes that “Israel is already risking failing to plan for the Golden Hour.”
The Future of the Strip:
The future of the “day after” in Gaza fundamentally depends on how Israel handles the upcoming “Golden Hour” in the Strip. Here, several options could shape the future of the “day after,” including: incorporating Gaza into the Palestinian Authority’s governance after its renewal, forming a local governance authority within Gaza with regional and international support, Israel’s reoccupation of Gaza militarily, Hamas regaining control over Gaza, or the Strip falling into chaos.
The choice of Gaza’s future according to one of these five options will result from one of two scenarios for Israel’s handling of the “Golden Hour” in Gaza:
Continuing the Current Israeli Policy: This is the most likely scenario, meaning that the “Golden Hour” in Gaza will begin without Israel having clear plans for the Strip’s future or engaging in regional or international consultations on the matter, with Netanyahu maintaining his current rhetoric. This scenario suggests that Gaza could either descend into “total chaos” or be fully occupied militarily by Israel, a possibility supported by current data. According to UNRWA estimates in July, 1.9 million people—about 80% of Gaza’s population—had been displaced. According to the World Health Organization in February, around 80% of Gaza’s civilian infrastructure had been destroyed or damaged, leaving the Strip with virtually no economy and heavily dependent on foreign aid.
Negotiating the Redesign of Governance in Gaza: Achieving one of the two options of the Palestinian Authority regaining control of Gaza or establishing new local governance would mean that Israel, during the “Golden Hour,” would work on presenting new frameworks for local governance in the Strip according to its vision, either through negotiations with local elements there or by re-engaging with the Palestinian Authority. In either case, this phase could see serious negotiations between Israel on one side and the concerned regional and international parties on the other. However, it does not appear that Netanyahu, if he remains at the head of the Israeli government, intends to push these negotiations forward.
In summary, despite the uncertainty surrounding Gaza’s future, the actions Israel takes during what it calls the third phase of the war (the Golden Hour in Gaza) could determine the Strip’s future in the day after—a future unfortunately dominated by chaos, according to estimates, especially if the current circumstances persist and Netanyahu continues with his current vision.
