The Allure of Conspiracy: Why do rational people believe in illogical things?

On October 25, 2022, American writer and science historian Michael Shermer, the executive director of the Skeptics Society and the publisher and founder of Skeptic magazine, released a new book titled Conspiracy: Why the Rational Believe the Irrational through Johns Hopkins University Press. In this book, Shermer explores the reasons behind the strong appeal of conspiracy theories to certain segments of society. He provides a comprehensive review of conspiracy theories, discussing who believes in them, why, which are real and which are false, and how we should address them. The author argues that trust in conspiracy theories intersects with various factors such as gender, age, race, income, education level, professional status, and even political affiliation. He also points out that one of the factors intensifying belief in these conspiracies is the occasional reality of some conspiracy theories; for instance, Watergate was indeed a conspiracy, and medical professionals deliberately harmed patients during the Tuskegee syphilis study from 1932 to 1972. Additionally, governments sometimes distort the truth, highlighting the necessity of engaging with conspiracy theories constructively, as he proposes in his latest work.

Multiple Classifications:

Shermer notes that there is always an audience for conspiracies and defines a conspiracy as an agreement between two or more people who secretly conspire to gain advantages or inflict harm on others in an unethical or illegal manner. Scholars have categorized the elements of conspiracy in various ways. According to Shermer, the classifications are as follows:

1. Essential Components for Building a Conspiracy: Political scientists Joseph Uscinski and Joseph Parent identified four necessary elements that must be present for a conspiracy to exist: a group that acts in secrecy to alter institutions, usurp power, hide the truth, or gain benefits at the expense of the common good.
2. Five Types of Conspiracy Theories: Some researchers have attempted to classify conspiracy theories into conceptual types. In his book Culture of Conspiracy, political scientist Michael Barkun categorizes conspiracy theories into three broad types: Event Conspiracy Theories, which include events like the assassination of John F. Kennedy and the 9/11 attacks; Systemic Conspiracy Theories, which involve social control, political power, and even world domination; and Superconspiracy Theories, which suggest the existence of a single individual or force that dominates the world. Such theories oversimplify a complex reality to depict a straightforward battle between good and evil.

Shermer further distinguishes paranoid conspiracy theories, which involve hyper-secretive entities driven by paranoia, including aliens and forces of evil, from realistic conspiracy theories that encompass ordinary political institutions conspiring to manipulate the system for unfair and illegal advantages, such as tax fraud and regulatory evasion.

3. Conspiracy Theory Prevalence in Developed Countries: Shermer also references Uscinski and Parent’s data compiled from various polls about conspiracy theories, revealing some “alarming” statistics. About one-third of Americans believe that Obama is an “alien” born outside of the U.S., with more than half of Republicans affirming this claim. Many also believe that the 9/11 attacks were an “inside job” by the Bush administration, with some conspiracy theories suggesting that U.S. air defense asked fighter jets to “stand down” and allow commercial planes to reach their targets, implicating the U.S. military in the conspiracy. A 2016 YouGov survey found that 41% of Britons believe the government “is hiding the truth about the number of immigrants actually living in the country,” and 4% believe that “the AIDS virus was deliberately spread worldwide by a secret organization.”

Serious Consequences:

The author points out that there are real-world consequences to believing in conspiracies, which can be summarized as follows:

1. Engagement in Violent Acts: Researchers from Chapman University found that conspiracy theorists tend to be more pessimistic about the near future, more fearful of government, less trusting of others, and more likely to engage in violent acts out of fear, such as purchasing firearms. Shermer cites the 2019 mass shootings at mosques in New Zealand as an example.
2. Rise of Extremist Groups: This research also helps explain the behavior of extremist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Members of these organizations fear that the U.S. is conspiring to invade the Middle East and destroy Islamic culture, if not Islam itself—a conspiracy theory popularized by the founding thinker of Al-Qaeda, Abdullah Azzam. This fear pushes them toward extremist ideologies and violent actions.
3. Use of Conspiracy Theories to Suppress Citizens: According to Shermer, authoritarian governments fabricate conspiracy theories about threats to the nation, leading to a variety of repressive measures against these purported conspiracies. However, he argues that citizens must differentiate between conspiracy theories that warrant belief, such as foreign invaders or internal insurrection, and those manufactured by the government to cover up its illegal actions. Such conspiratorial machinations have also been revealed in European countries throughout the twentieth century and in the United States. For instance, President Woodrow Wilson and the U.S. Supreme Court threatened the liberties of German Americans during World War I.

Common Factors:

The author poses an essential question regarding who believes in conspiracies and whether there are common factors among them. He indicates that conspirators “intersect in gender, age, race, income, political affiliation, education level, and professional status.” This can be further detailed as follows:

1. Political Affiliation: Political allegiance plays a significant role in conspiracy beliefs. Liberals are more likely to believe in conspiracies when conservatives are in power and vice versa. Conspiracy theories also differ according to party affiliation; for instance, white Republicans are more skeptical of Obama’s birthplace.
2. Racial Similarity: While race does not serve as a strong indicator of overall conspiratorial belief, it partially shapes which conspiracy theories are likely to be adopted. For example, African Americans are more inclined to believe that the federal government invented AIDS to kill Black people and that the CIA introduced cocaine into urban communities to destroy them.
3. Education Level: The author asserts that education reduces belief in conspiracy theories. About 42% of those without a high school diploma displayed strong conspiratorial tendencies compared to only 22% of those holding advanced degrees. The more aligned individuals are with a scientific worldview, the less likely they are to believe in conspiracies.
4. Cultural Anxiety: Cultural anxiety can lead to conspiracy thinking. For instance, a 2018 survey of over 3,000 Americans found that those who felt American values were eroding were more likely to agree with conspiratorial statements, such as the belief that “many major events are driven by a small group of influencers.”
5. Low Trust in Others: Early research indicated that conspiracy believers tend to be less trusting of others, including friends, neighbors, and colleagues—not just government and media. This has been demonstrated in studies spanning various disciplines, including cognitive psychology, political science, behavioral economics, and legal studies.

Patterns of Conspiracy:

Shermer identifies three patterns of conspiracy that can be described as follows:

1. Proxy Conspiracism: Many conspiracy theories serve as “proxies” for a different kind of conspiracy truth, which may either be mythical, psychological, or represent a deeper lived experience. In this sense, the details and truthfulness of specific conspiracy theories are less important than the underlying truths they convey, which often contain definitional, existential, and moral meanings and typically involve power for both the conspiracy and the perceived conspirators.
2. Tribal Conspiracism: This term denotes how many conspiracy theories incorporate elements of previous beliefs and conspiracy theories that have long been considered foundational to political, religious, social, or tribal identities. Current conspiracy theories may thereby act as alternatives to past theories with deep historical roots. The author explains that “we often tend to make value judgments based on beliefs because our evolving tribal tendencies lead us to form alliances with like-minded individuals in our group while demonizing those with differing opinions.”
3. Constructive Conspiracism: Most researchers and commentators on conspiracy theories imply they are misguided beliefs, which the author argues is incorrect; history and current events are rife with actual conspiracies, like the Watergate scandal and the CIA’s covert involvement in international political assassinations and regime changes. For example, the Kennedy administration discussed methods to assassinate Fidel Castro, including tactics depicted in American films, such as using an explosive cigar or a poisoned cigar. Additionally, the report provided by the U.S. government regarding the history of political and military involvement in Vietnam from 1945 to 1967 and the gap between what was told to the public and what was genuinely happening during the state’s engagement in the war serves as another pertinent example.

According to the author, one might view constructive conspiracy as a hypothetical stance when living in a dangerous world; if it becomes evident that there is no danger, then there is no harm in that perspective. Historical examples are abundant, such as the October 6, 1973, war, during which a coalition of Arab countries, led by Egypt and Syria, launched a surprise attack on Israel. The failure to recognize a conspiracy from a potential enemy led to significant Israeli vigilance toward any potential threats to its existence, which the author categorizes as constructive conspiracy.

Fundamental Motivations:

The book indicates that belief in conspiracies is driven by three fundamental motivations:

1. Cognitive Motivations: These involve crafting causal explanations that create a “stable, accurate, and consistent understanding of the world.” In this sense, a conspiracy theory acts as an explanation for a wide range of world events that may initially appear chaotic, random, and inexplicable. For instance, the economy is not merely a mix of supply and demand laws, market forces, interest rate fluctuations, and the like; according to conspiratorial thinking, the economy is viewed as a conspiracy orchestrated by a group of powerful entities like the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission.
2. Existential Motivations: Existential motivations involve creating causal explanations “that serve a people’s need to feel secure in their environment and retain control over it.” Thus, politics is not the chaotic process of campaigning, primaries, general elections, and voting, but rather, according to conspiratorial thought, is managed by a secretive cabal.
3. Social Motivations: Social motivations encompass “the desire for belonging and maintaining a positive self-image for oneself and one’s group.” Other groups—especially those perceived as hostile—are seen as well-organized entities driven by a secret mission to illegally acquire power, in contrast to “our group,” which is characterized as “angelic.”

Restoring Trust:

The author points out that surveys consistently indicate a lack of trust in American institutions and authorities. He argues that former President Donald Trump, in promoting conspiracy theories, did not create a climate of fear but rather exploited what was already pervasive in the media and popular culture, especially within online communities, against a backdrop of distrust. To address this, the author proposes several suggestions for restoring trust in governing institutions and countering conspiracy thinking:

1. Promote Standards of Truth and Honesty: The author believes that truth-telling and honesty are essential virtues. The more people respect them as such, the less likely they are to violate them.
2. Practice Active Openness: Studies have shown a connection between active openness and skepticism toward conspiracy theories, as well as a higher trust in scientific institutions and scientific consensus. The principle here is that active openness leads to a more objective assessment of evidence, especially when it contradicts beliefs.
3. Develop Standards for Seeking Truth: The author suggests pushing institutions to develop standards that foster truth-seeking rather than merely defending beliefs, particularly in academia, which he claims has embraced a “suffocating monoculture” that punishes students and faculty who challenge prevailing doctrines on gender, race, culture, genetics, and colonialism.
4. Avoid Group Polarization and Echo Chambers: Various experiments have demonstrated how irrational beliefs can be amplified in echo chambers of like-minded individuals. For instance, in one experiment, participants were divided into two groups: liberals and conservatives, and were tasked with discussing three issues: climate change, affirmative action, and same-sex marriage. Their views were recorded at three stages: (1) initially, privately and anonymously; (2) after discussing the issues among themselves until they reached a collective judgment; and (3) afterward again privately and anonymously.

The results affirmed the echo chamber effect hypothesis: across all three issues, both liberals and conservatives became more unified and extreme after merely conversing with each other. Not only did their general judgments become more polarized, but their private views also became more extreme. Hence, group discussions made conservatives more skeptical of climate change and more hostile toward same-sex marriage, while liberals exhibited the opposite trend, having shown significantly greater diversity of opinions before the discussion.

5. Cultivate a Scout Mentality: The book argues that we need to foster a truth-seeking attitude through what the author calls a “scout mentality,” which stands in contrast to a “soldier mentality.” The soldier mentality leads individuals to “defend our beliefs against external threats, seek out evidence to support our beliefs while ignoring or justifying contrary evidence, and resist acknowledging when we are wrong as it feels like defeat.” In contrast, the scout mentality aims to discover what is true through evidence and move toward conclusions leading to a more accurate map of reality.
6. Commit to Science and Enlightened Humanity: The author contends that most of the moral progress made over the centuries, from the abolition of slavery and capital punishment to the end of inquisitions and pogroms, as well as the acknowledgment of civil, women’s, workers’, and even animals’ rights and their legal foundations, has ultimately resulted from applying reason and science to understand causality and solve problems, increasing the chances of survival and flourishing for more individuals in various contexts.
7. Promote Standards of Free Expression and Dialogue: The author advocates for the need to promote standards of open dialogue and freedoms of expression both at formal and grassroots levels, while mitigating censorious behavior that silences those who disagree.

In conclusion, the author asserts that this book is a starting point for restoring trust in the American institutions we “rely on to determine the truth about the world.” This endeavor applies not only to conspiracy theorists but to anyone curious who seeks to understand the truth, aiming towards a truth-based society, which is “the society we should all belong to” from the author’s perspective.

Source:
Michael Shermer, Conspiracy: Why the Rational Believe the Irrational (USA: Johns Hopkins University Press, October 25, 2022).