Punishing Both Parties: Features of the Influence of British Muslims and Arabs in the Upcoming Elections
There is no doubt that the Israeli war on Gaza has cast its shadow on the British interior, which was reflected in the rise in pro-Palestine demonstrations calling for an end to the war on Gaza, and the presence of sharp polarization in British public opinion regarding Britain’s absolute support for the Israeli side. The war also revealed a state of disconnection between British foreign policy makers and British public opinion, to the point where the Home Secretary was criticized and dismissed from Sunak’s government. Sunak’s statements, as well as those of Labour Party leader Starmer, aroused the resentment of Arabs and Muslims in Britain, while the statements of Galloway, leader of the Workers Party of Britain, were welcomed by the Arab-Islamic community after he announced his party’s support for Gaza. This article presents a vision of the limits of the Arab-Islamic community’s influence on the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections on July 4, 2024.
Escalating Discontent
To begin with, the search for a potential influence of the Arab and Islamic community is based on an implicit assumption of this community’s dissatisfaction with the British position on the Gaza war at the government and party levels, and its attempt to use the upcoming parliamentary elections as a means for change – if it can influence the result according to the most optimistic scenario – or as a means to punish British parties according to the worst scenario. In principle, the validity of this assumption can be inferred from main indicators:
1- Voting trends in local elections indicating internal discontent: These elections, held in May 2024, can be viewed as a miniature picture of the expected course of the upcoming parliamentary elections on July 4, 2024. Some statistics revealed that the Labour Party – despite winning – lost 11% of votes in constituencies where Muslims represent 10% of the population compared to the past elections.
The Labour Party also lost control of constituencies historically known for their absolute support for the Labour Party, most importantly Oldham, from which councillors resigned due to the party’s position on the war on Gaza as part of the wave of mass resignations witnessed by the Labour Party in late 2023 and early 2024.
2- British Muslims’ preference to vote for the Workers Party of Britain: British Muslims preferred to vote for the Workers Party of Britain, which is ideologically closer to the Labour Party, and whose current leader, George Galloway, expressed his explicit support for Gaza in its war against Israel, and built his election campaign in the by-elections on absolute support for Palestine. The result was Galloway’s success in the Rochdale by-election, and his success in securing four seats based on Muslim votes angry at the Labour Party in the current local elections: two seats in Rochdale, one seat in Calderdale, and one seat in Manchester.
3- Opinion polls revealing the importance of the Gaza war issue to Muslim voters: The Labour Muslim Network conducted an opinion poll in February 2024 on the importance of the Arab-Israeli conflict for voting for parties in the upcoming general election. The result was that 85% of respondents consider this issue extremely important or somewhat important in their voting decision. As for party representation of Muslims, 49% of participants expressed that the Labour Party represents them; a decrease of about 23% compared to 2021 opinion polls, while the Green Party came in second place with 9%, which is the same increase in Muslim support it received in 2021. The Conservative Party came in third place with 9%, which is much less than what it received in 2021 opinion polls. The Liberal Democratic Party got 5%, an increase of 4% from previous polls. Thus, the overall picture indicates that the two major parties (Labour and Conservatives) have lost a considerable percentage of British Muslim votes, while this percentage was distributed among smaller parties.
The British company Savanta also conducted an opinion poll for the Hyphen website on Muslim voting trends in the upcoming elections, which included 1,366 British Muslims and 1,496 of the general British public. When asked, 21% of those who confirmed that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the first issue affecting their voting decision; 86% of them confirmed that they intend to vote for an independent candidate, while 63% of the rest of British Muslims expressed their intention to vote for the British Labour Party, and the remaining percentage was divided between the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party or undecided. Therefore, the Labour Party still enjoys the support of the majority of Arab-Islamic community votes, albeit decreased.
4- The Arab-Islamic community organizing a unified voting campaign: This campaign was called the Muslim Voting Campaign (TMV), which was launched after the Scottish National Party’s failed attempt to demand a ceasefire in Gaza inside the British Parliament. According to the volunteers of this campaign, Muslim votes constitute about 10% in 55 constituencies, and thus Muslim voting can affect the level of support enjoyed by the Labour and Conservative parties in 100 seats. As for unified Muslim voting, it can overthrow representatives of the two major parties in 25 electoral districts, and bring in a new member from small parties or an independent candidate.
It is worth noting that one of the goals of this campaign is for British foreign policy to become an ethical policy, and for the British government to acknowledge that what is happening in Gaza is genocide, in addition to developing public health and education files. The British Arabs for London Forum also organized workshops to introduce voters to independent Arab candidates, calling on the British Arab community to punish parties for their position on the war in Gaza.
Determinants of Influence
The existence of a potential influence of the Arab-Islamic community on the electoral result depends on basic determinants:
1- The continued influence of demographic factors on voters’ voting decisions in Britain: The influence of demographic factors on British elections is one of the stable matters that are undisputed in the British context. Thus, Muslims are expected to vote for the Labour Party, while Catholic Christians tend to vote for the Conservative Party. Similarly, Britons of Arab descent also prefer to vote for the Labour Party. Given the intersection between belonging to the Islamic religion and Arab origins, it is expected that the voting trend of the Arab-Islamic community will continue in its course in terms of reluctance to support the Conservatives and support for the Labour Party; regardless of the position on the Israeli war on Gaza.
2- The limits of the influence of foreign files on voting decisions in elections: There is a need to identify the position of the foreign affairs file, specifically the conflict in Gaza, in the structure of voting decision priorities for British voters in general and the Arab-Islamic community in particular. In June 2024, the British company Savanta conducted an opinion poll for the Hyphen website on Muslim voting trends in the upcoming elections. The results concluded that the conflict in Gaza comes first for only 21% of British Muslims participating in the poll compared to only 3% of British voters in general.
When asked if the conflict in Gaza was one of the top three issues in their voting decision, 35% of British Muslims answered positively compared to 7% of general voters. When increasing the number of issues to five, 44% of surveyed British Muslims answered that the conflict in Gaza is among the top 5 files affecting their voting decision – after public health issues (57%), inflation and cost of living (51%), and the economy (48%) – compared to 12% for British people in general.
In conclusion, one in every five British Muslims makes the Palestinian-Israeli conflict the first issue in their voting decision, while one in 33 Britons makes this conflict one of their priorities. Thus, the overall picture indicates that the position of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict file for the Arab-Islamic community is not different from the general British public who are not Arab or Muslim, even if the percentages differ.
3- The extent of the Arab-Islamic community’s ability as a voting bloc to change the electoral result: By reviewing the statistics of the National Statistics Office in Britain until March 11, 2024, it can be said that the total population in Britain is 67,961,439 in 2024, of whom more than 46 million are registered to vote in the local elections that were held last May, and the number of Arabs in Britain is 331,851 people, and the number of Muslims from Arabs and non-Arabs is 3,868,109 according to statistics announced on February 19, 2024.
Assuming that the number of those registered in the local elections is the same as the number of those registered in the upcoming parliamentary elections – noting that registration closed on June 18, 2024, and the final numbers have not been announced yet – the Arab community does not have a relative weight as a voting bloc (0.72% of the total registered to vote). As for the Islamic community of Arabs and non-Arabs, it represents about 8% of those registered to vote; that is, it has a relative weight compared to the Arab community, but it is not large enough to make a difference in the overall picture.
4- The limits of the success of Arab-Islamic mobilization campaigns in attracting other voters: If the size of the Arab-Islamic community is not influential in itself as a voting bloc, then the possibilities of its influence on the electoral result depend on its ability to gain supporters from non-Arabs or non-Muslims on a rights or humanitarian basis. Because the British voter – as we have already explained – does not make foreign policy one of the priorities of issues that shape their voting decision, and because the position of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the priorities of issues that affect the voting decision of Muslims is a miniature picture of the general British voters and does not differ from it, the possibilities of transforming sympathy with the Palestinian cause from a rights or humanitarian perspective into a voting decision in the upcoming elections are modest.
5- Chances of independent Arab and Muslim candidates in the upcoming elections: Such as Helmi Al-Harahsheh (Ealing North), Samih Habib (Ealing North), Mona Adam (Kensington and Bayswater), Nada Gersh (Ealing Central and Acton), Khaled Abu Taim (Cambridge), Taghreed Al-Mou’ed (Ceredigion Preseli), which may enhance the chances of these candidates to obtain votes from the Arab and Muslim community in the upcoming elections; which may double the losses of the two main parties in the elections.
In total, it can be said that the formulas for electoral participation of the Arab-Islamic community oscillate between abstaining from voting, although not expected, and punitive voting against the Labour and Conservative parties – which is most likely – by voting for smaller ideologically closer parties. In this case, its impact will be limited to creating convergence in the number of votes between small parties, which represents an extension of the voting trend of Muslims and Arabs during the local elections held in May 2024, as well as between supporting some independent Muslim candidates abandoned by parties due to their pro-Gaza stance, who are presented by the media as activists for Gaza, and that they have no plan for Britain other than their support for Gaza.
Assuming full electoral participation, the Arab community will not affect the general electoral picture in a way that ends the dominance of the Labour and Conservative parties on electoral competition; predictions are still in favor of the Labour Party, but it will affect the order and convergence of small parties – especially the Reform UK party – from the Conservative Party. As for the local level of influence, the Arab-Islamic community can affect the control of the two major parties over some electoral districts where the Arab-Islamic community represents a high percentage of the population, affecting their voting bloc so that they lose the seat in favor of some independents or a candidate from small parties. Perhaps this potential local influence is what prompted the Labour Party to send activists and representatives on June 16, 2024 to 13 electoral districts where Muslims represent a fifth of the voting bloc, fearing Muslim voters’ abandonment of the party after its position on the war on Gaza.
