The Pacific region has been one of China’s focal points in recent years. On February 26, 2025, New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters expressed concerns regarding recent Chinese military exercises that took place in the Tasman Sea during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. The New Zealand minister noted that these exercises were conducted without prior notification to his country.
New Zealand’s stance followed the visit of the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands to China earlier in February, highlighting the escalating geopolitical competition among international and regional powers for influence in the island nations. During his visit, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown met with senior political figures and signed several partnership agreements without prior consultation with New Zealand.
This has raised concerns in Wellington, as the Cook Islands are connected to New Zealand through a free association agreement that allows for the management of their external affairs while necessitating consultation with Wellington on foreign policy matters. These Chinese moves appear to be part of a campaign to attract the small island nations of the South Pacific, where Beijing has leveraged its economic and diplomatic influence. Critics argue that this is an attempt by China to reduce the influence of the United States and its allies, to open opportunities for access to mineral resources, fisheries, and to enhance its global standing in the region. Additionally, China aims to neutralize several of Taiwan’s allies in the region while asserting military influence.
China’s Policies
China’s overarching goals in the Pacific Region include distancing Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic partners and expanding its influence through law enforcement and military cooperation agreements. It also seeks to increase the operational capacity of the Chinese navy far from the mainland and benefit from the vast natural resources available in the region. To achieve these objectives, Beijing has adopted several key policies, including:
Efforts to Weaken Taipei’s Relations with Regional Countries: Regarding Taiwan’s relations with Pacific island nations, several countries in the region have shifted their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the “One China” principle, the latest being Nauru, which changed its diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing. Currently, only three island nations in the Pacific maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan: the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu. The Pacific Islands Forum, which convened in August 2024 and includes the three countries that recognize Taiwan, omitted any reference to Taiwan in its statement following the annual meeting of regional leaders after complaints from China’s envoy.
Enhancing Chinese Security and Military Cooperation with Regional States: China also aims to sign various security agreements with Pacific island countries and enhance its military presence in the region. The Solomon Islands signed a security agreement with Beijing in 2022 and a police agreement in 2023, raising concerns that China may seek access to port facilities with its naval vessels, causing significant diplomatic apprehensions in Washington and Canberra. Simultaneously, there have been rumors about China’s proximity to rebuilding a military airstrip in Kiribati, located just 2,400 miles southwest of Hawaii, where Chinese police officers were seen in early 2024, prompting US concerns.
Supporting Infrastructure Projects in Pacific Islands: China has financially supported and executed numerous development projects in island nations. For instance, in Samoa, China built an important government building in the capital, Apia, in 1993. This building has since become a tourist site and a key symbol of the city after it survived a significant earthquake in 2009. Additionally, Chinese companies aided in the inauguration of Faleolo International Airport in Apia, one of the most modern airports in the South Pacific.
Providing Various Economic Cooperation Opportunities to Island Nations: China has promised to enhance the tourism sector in Palau by encouraging Chinese tourists to spend their vacations there. It has also offered economic incentives to the Marshall Islands. A report from the Lowy Institute, an Australian research group that tracks loans and grants to the region, showed that China has surpassed the United States, reclaiming its position as the second-largest donor to Pacific islands, investing billions of dollars amid competition with the US and its allies.
Expanding Strategic Partnership Agreements with Pacific States: China is keen on signing strategic partnership agreements with Pacific Island nations. The latest of these agreements was announced in February, coinciding with the Cook Islands Prime Minister’s visit to Beijing, establishing a partnership covering various fields, including deep-sea mining and educational scholarships, while excluding security relations. Reports indicate that the partnership document entails further financial commitments from China for infrastructure projects and educational scholarships.
Expanding Military Drills and Exercises in the Region: In recent times, China has attempted to extend the scope of its military drills in the Pacific. On February 21 of this year, China conducted naval exercises in the Tasman Sea, prompting criticism from Australia and New Zealand. New Zealand’s Defense Minister Judith Collins stated that the live-fire exercises had minimal notification, contradicting expectations.
Key Challenges
Despite China’s recent success in enhancing its influence with Pacific island nations, its policies face several significant challenges summarized as follows:
Strong American Presence in the Region: The major challenge to China’s relationships with Pacific islands lies in its inability to establish a new regional system to replace the US-led Western system. China’s role in the South Pacific is likely to remain primarily one of disruption rather than creation due to the traditional influence and significant soft power of the US in the region, supported by security presence in Guam and American Samoa, and long-standing public diplomacy traditions.
Competition with Australia and New Zealand: China’s signing of agreements with Pacific island nations leads to significant competition with Australia and New Zealand, which have worked to create a robust regional security system since the end of Japanese imperial control. As China engages more with the Pacific islands, both countries have accelerated efforts to strengthen their bilateral ties with these nations.
Conflict Between China’s Military Activities and Island Nations’ Security Needs: While some islands have entered into military agreements with China, these military activities may threaten the security of the islands and could discourage further cooperation. For instance, Kiribati criticized China for launching an intercontinental ballistic missile, stating that the Pacific does not represent “isolated pockets,” and there is no welcome for Beijing’s maneuvers.
Concerns About Debt Traps from Chinese Financing: Between 2008 and 2016, Chinese banks lent over $1.1 billion to the region, raising fears of increased diplomatic pressure on the islands. However, recent reports indicate that China has adopted a more strategic approach, shifting away from debt financing towards larger grants and community-level projects.
In conclusion, China is expected to maintain an active foreign policy towards Pacific island nations while attempting to fill the void left by the US, which has withdrawn several development programs previously offered by the US Agency for International Development.
