Is New Caledonia Becoming a Battlefield for International Competition?
New Caledonia is an archipelago composed of twelve islands located in the South Pacific Ocean, about 1,500 kilometers from the eastern coast of Australia. The first contact between the indigenous inhabitants, the Kanak people, and Europeans occurred in 1774 when English sailors reached the shores of Grande Terre, the main island in the archipelago. These sailors named the island New Caledonia, in honor of the Latin name for Scotland, which is called Caledonia in Latin. The systematic colonization of New Caledonia by the Second French Empire, led by Napoleon III, began in 1853, establishing a colony there to strengthen French presence in the South Pacific. The local population was then Christianized and forced to adapt to French customs and language, with local monarchies abolished, and the islands were officially annexed by the French Empire in 1860.
In 1945, following the end of World War II, global conditions changed as colonies were being dismantled. New Caledonia was integrated into France as one of its overseas territories, with France granting the Kanak people French citizenship and gradually giving them the right to vote. Fast forward to the present, and the situation in New Caledonia has seen political unrest leading to riots and violence over a controversial new law that was supposed to be passed. The attempt to change the French voting lists in New Caledonia sparked a violent crisis in the archipelago, raising questions about the roots of this crisis and the importance of understanding current global politics.
Given France’s long colonial history and the bitter conflicts that occurred in the past over decolonization (as seen in Algeria or Indochina), is the New Caledonia crisis the last of France’s colonial struggles, or is it a new kind of conflict?
A Strategic Territory
New Caledonia appears to be strategically important for France, serving as a cornerstone of French strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. Additionally, the U.S. policy of “pivoting to Asia” and the emergence of China as a global political, economic, and military power have made the Asia-Pacific region strategically significant for the old continental powers. France, eager to maintain its status as a global power, uses its vast territories to be a key player in different parts of the world, especially in the Pacific region. Consequently, New Caledonia, as a French territory, hosts a significant French military presence, including naval and air bases that play a crucial role in enhancing France’s ability to project power and influence in the region.
Economically, New Caledonia is also vital to France, possessing one of the world’s largest reserves of nickel. In addition, the archipelago’s marine resources are abundant, providing France with a valuable maritime zone in the Pacific Ocean. New Caledonia’s strategic location between major economic and military powers in the South Pacific offers a critical vantage point for monitoring and securing maritime routes essential for international trade and military logistics. Therefore, due to New Caledonia’s strategic economic and geopolitical role for France, the latter is strongly tied to it. Nonetheless, New Caledonia has long struggled with various independence movements aimed at freeing its land.
Historical Roots of the Crisis
Since 1945, New Caledonia has been a French overseas territory. Since then, there has been a clear conflict between the independents (those who support the archipelago’s independence) and the loyalists who favor French rule. In the 1980s, clashes between the two sides escalated, peaking in 1988 when the independents killed four police officers and took 27 others and a prosecutor hostage in the Ouvéa Cave, demanding talks with the French government about New Caledonia’s independence.
As a result of this violent episode, the French government launched the “Matignon Agreements” in 1988, aimed at promoting the economic and cultural development of New Caledonia and the Kanak people, as well as restoring political balance to the archipelago. This led to the establishment of new cultural centers for the Kanak people and a general administration to develop their culture. Unemployment was targeted through various development and economic policies, a local elite was trained to manage the region, new schools were opened, and a new campus for the University of New Caledonia was inaugurated. This series of new policies, along with the Nouméa Accord signed in 1998, allowed for greater autonomy for New Caledonia and set the stage for organizing a referendum on independence between 2014 and 2018.
In line with the right to self-determination, the Nouméa Accord stipulated that if the result of the independence referendum was negative, a second referendum should be organized, and even a third if the second referendum also produced a negative outcome. To ensure self-determination for the Kanak people, only citizens registered on the electoral list at the time of the signing of the Nouméa Accord in 1998 were allowed to vote. This benefited the Kanak population by preventing French citizens who had settled in New Caledonia from voting in the self-determination referendum.
Thus, the New Caledonian Congress set the date for the first self-determination referendum for November 4, 2018, with the result being that 56.4% of voters rejected independence from France, affirming their desire to remain part of the European state. A second referendum was held on September 6, 2020, with 53.24% of voters again expressing their preference to stay with France. The third and final self-determination referendum was then scheduled for December 12, 2021. In this referendum, pro-independence parties called for a boycott, leading to a low voter turnout of only 44%. However, 96% of those who participated voted to remain French.
On the other hand, the freezing of the electoral list in New Caledonia sparked a legal debate as it stripped many French citizens living in the archipelago of their constitutional right to vote. French legal scholar Ferdinand Mélin-Soucramanien explained that “the European Court of Human Rights approved [the freezing of the electoral list] only because it was a step in the decolonization process, provided it was a temporary measure. The same applies to the Constitutional Council and the Council of State (France’s highest judicial authorities), which have stated on several occasions that this situation cannot continue indefinitely.” Consequently, following the three referendums that expressed voters’ desire to remain part of France, French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin decided to introduce a new law to unfreeze the electoral list in New Caledonia. This was the spark that ignited the rebellion in the archipelago, with the independents strongly opposing the new law, viewing it as a new colonial tool by the French government to turn the indigenous population into a political minority in their ancestral land.
Other International Players
While this crisis is, under international law, an internal one, various external powers are active in the region. For example, this territory is heavily influenced by the competition between the United States and China, and the presence of such an internal crisis will undoubtedly weaken Western presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Graeme Smith, a Pacific region analyst at the Australian National University, explained that the use of French police violence in Nouméa could lead China to further weaponize its anti-colonial rhetoric against Western powers in the Pacific. In fact, the Chinese Communist Party has maintained strong ties with the main pro-independence Kanak party (the party representing the National Socialist Liberation Front) for years.
China’s anti-colonial narrative, which the Chinese government has worked to highlight, reflects its desire to align itself with Non-Aligned Movement countries while showcasing China’s growing influence in the southern hemisphere. Currently, China’s steadily increasing power in the Asia-Pacific region is colliding with U.S. interests in the same area. This will likely result in China making extensive moves to destabilize the U.S. and its allies in the region (such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and of course, France). Therefore, China is expected to exploit the current crisis in New Caledonia to undermine French presence in the South Pacific.
In addition to China’s stance on the New Caledonia crisis, Russia is taking a similar position, albeit for different reasons. Russia, bogged down in its war against Ukraine—a conflict that originated mainly from Western military support for the Kyiv regime—is systematically working to destabilize NATO countries in Europe, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region. The confrontation between France and Russia did not start with the New Caledonia crisis; it was already ongoing, as Russia has been challenging French interests across Africa by planting Wagner militias in the Central African Republic in 2018, in Mali in 2022, and by launching numerous disinformation campaigns against France for some time. However, Russia’s stance on the New Caledonia crisis is different because this is a French domestic issue, and Russian interference could put it in a precarious position under international law. According to French sources, Russia’s involvement in this crisis comes in the form of disinformation campaigns or unconventional methods. French authorities have detected an “unprecedented” cyberattack in New Caledonia linked to Russian IP addresses.
In addition to China and Russia, other less prominent countries, such as Azerbaijan, are also intervening in this crisis. The conflict between France and Azerbaijan began with the Karabakh conflict in Azerbaijani territory, which is predominantly inhabited by an Armenian minority, and France’s support for the self-declared Republic of Artsakh, condemning the Azerbaijani government’s stance. This led to a significant deterioration in political and diplomatic relations between the two countries.
In response, Azerbaijan has shifted its foreign policy to oppose France in various regions, particularly in Africa, where French influence is waning. Azerbaijan’s opposing policies have also been observed in New Caledonia. For instance, in 2023, Azerbaijan launched the Baku Initiative Group, aimed at “supporting
the right of the peoples of French overseas territories to self-determination.” Several pro-independence Kanak representatives were received in Baku, where they expressed their support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This was the first time Azerbaijan had openly supported an independence movement in French territory, aligning itself with other French adversaries in New Caledonia.
Conclusion
New Caledonia, a beautiful land rich in resources, has become a focal point for a crisis with multiple domestic and international dimensions. France’s insistence on passing a controversial law that could severely damage its relations with the Kanak people, combined with the growing influence of China and Russia in the region, and the volatile situation in the Pacific, means that the South Pacific region is on the verge of conflict. The latest crisis in New Caledonia, therefore, raises significant concerns about the future stability of the Asia-Pacific region and highlights the complex and dangerous interplay of international power politics in the 21st century.
