Elected President Donald Trump pledged during his campaign to resolve foreign wars and crises that characterized the outgoing presidency of Joe Biden, foremost among which is the war in Ukraine, ongoing for nearly 30 months. This conflict has resulted in significant geopolitical transformations, impacting partnerships between China and Russia and even provoking potential indirect confrontations between the Koreas on Ukrainian territory. Additionally, the war has cost the United States dearly, with continued economic and military aid to Ukraine totaling $175 billion since 2022.
Significant Indicators
The results of the U.S. presidential elections, revealing a victory for the Republican candidate Donald Trump, carried several implications:
Russian Anticipation of Trump’s Next Steps Regarding Ukraine: Following the election results, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Trump might change the tone of his remarks on peace in Ukraine after his victory. He emphasized that Russia is carefully analyzing the current situation and will draw conclusions based on both statements and actions, indicating Russia is open in principle to resolving the war in Ukraine, but will wait to see specific steps from Trump before responding.
Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed this stance when he spoke for the first time after Trump’s election victory at the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi, expressing hope for the restoration of U.S.-Russian relations, while stating that the ball is now in Washington’s court.
Ukrainian Concerns About Reduced U.S. Aid: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Trump on his election win and indicated a desire to continue close dialogue and strengthen cooperation between the two nations. He emphasized that strong U.S. leadership is vital for the world and for achieving a just peace, revealing Zelensky’s fears about the possibility of a new Trump administration adopting a different approach towards support compared to Biden’s administration, which has provided limitless aid to Kyiv under the motto: “As long as it takes.”
Zelensky expressed this concern during the European Political Community meeting in Budapest, stating that Trump wants a quick end to the war, but this does not necessarily mean it will happen. He stressed that any concessions to Russia regarding Ukraine would be unacceptable for Kyiv and suicidal for Europe.
European Fears Regarding Trump’s Influence on the Ukraine War: In the wake of Trump’s election victory, leaders from about 40 European nations convened in Budapest. Some welcomed Trump’s return to the White House, while others cautioned that his regaining power poses undeniable security and political challenges that necessitate a unified European front and preparedness for potential scenarios.
French President Emmanuel Macron seized the opportunity to address the European leaders directly, urging that they should not indefinitely delegate their security to the United States, hinting at the possibility of a different U.S. role in Ukraine under Trump, which could involve pressuring both Ukraine and Russia to reach a settlement rather than continuing to provide increasing economic and military aid.
Doubts About Enhancing European Autonomy: Trump’s various stances have raised European concerns, as he previously hinted at a potential military disengagement from them, suggested imposing hefty tariffs on some European products entering the U.S., and might abandon environmental issues. This situation pushes the European Union to accelerate steps toward strategic autonomy, although the readiness of the EU to move forward with this appears questionable.
Sebastian Meyer, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, emphasized that the “knife is at the throat” of Europeans with Trump returning to the White House, prompting them to be alert. John Auther Wolf, a researcher at Bruegel Institute in Brussels, underscored that he does not see Europeans prepared for such a scenario after Trump’s return, suggesting that there is no plan in place for a collective or bilateral approach between France and Germany.
Problematic Consequences
Trump’s return to the White House opens the door to numerous consequences regarding the Ukraine war, as follows:
Limiting the Flow of U.S. Aid to Kyiv: The Ukraine war has cost the U.S. about 175billionthusfar.Recently,PoliticoreportedthattwoBidenadministrationofficialsstatedthattheWhiteHouseintendstoexpeditesendingthelastremainingpartofa175billionthusfar.Recently,PoliticoreportedthattwoBidenadministrationofficialsstatedthattheWhiteHouseintendstoexpeditesendingthelastremainingpartofa6 billion security aid package to Kyiv before Trump is officially inaugurated in January next year.
Trump had sharply criticized Biden’s administration during his campaign, alongside his running mate J.D. Vance, for sending U.S. aid to Kyiv for over two and a half years, even calling Zelensky the “best sales representative in the world” for leaving the U.S. each time with $60 billion in various forms of support. Thus, it is likely that Trump’s new administration will reduce this vast amount of economic and military aid to Kyiv.
Involving Elon Musk in the Pressure Equation on Ukraine: AFP reported that a recent 25-minute phone call took place between Trump and Zelensky. Notably, Elon Musk participated in this call after playing a crucial role in Trump’s election victory, spending over $110 million of his personal fortune on Trump’s campaign. This aligns with Axios’s report that Musk has been involved in applying pressure on Ukraine to quickly reach a settlement.
Reports indicate that during the call, Zelensky thanked Musk for Starlink technology, referring to the satellite internet service available to Ukrainian forces involved in the war. This suggests a possible intent behind including Trump and Musk in the equation: to convey a message to Zelensky that Trump is determined to end the ongoing war, and that Zelensky should start making concessions soon, beginning with agreeing to sit down for talks with Putin.
Attempting to Influence Russo-Chinese rapprochement: Trump firmly believes that prolonging the war in Ukraine has encouraged significant geopolitical transformations, notably the seemingly limitless partnership between China and Russia. Simon Tisdall mentioned in a Guardian article that the Ukraine war has forged a bond between Russia and China, with China acquiring cheap oil from Russia and Russia receiving versatile technology from China, thereby circumventing international sanctions, along with ongoing diplomatic support between the two nations.
What likely concerns Trump most is not just Russia’s benefit but the gains China may derive from this partnership, as he sees it as the biggest threat to the U.S. Consequently, he is likely to be more cautious than ever regarding international sanctions on Russia to prevent China from continuing to benefit.
Ongoing Debate Over Trump’s Formula for War Settlement: Trump has repeatedly claimed during his campaign that he would put an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine within just 24 hours of his inauguration. He has insisted on his ability to broker an agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents without requiring Ukraine to surrender, as was claimed by his opponent Kamala Harris.
Regardless of the symbolic nature of the 24-hour timeframe indicating a short duration, Trump could push towards settling the war through speculations presented by Alexander Ward in the Wall Street Journal. This speculation suggests that Russia retains control over the territories it has seized (estimated at about 20% of Ukrainian land), while Ukraine promises to defer its ambition to join NATO for up to twenty years, along with establishing a buffer zone to ensure that direct confrontations between the two nations do not recur, with multinational peacekeeping forces (not tied to the UN) responsible for maintaining this zone.
Revocation of Biden’s Decision Allowing Military Contractors in Ukraine: CNN reported that the outgoing Biden administration decided to allow American defense contractors to go to Ukraine to assist the Ukrainian army in maintaining and repairing U.S.-provided weapons, particularly F-16 fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems.
This decision is part of a new policy approved by the Biden administration, allowing the Pentagon to grant contracts to U.S. companies to operate in Ukraine for the first time. Trump is likely to revoke this decision as soon as he assumes office, given its implications for U.S. involvement in the war which he intends to settle while pushing both sides toward a swift resolution.
In summary, Trump seems to face a swift choice between the oil lobby advocating for stricter sanctions on Russia and the arms lobby benefiting from the continuation of the Ukraine war—both of which are American lobbies. Thus, it is conceivable that Trump will begin negotiating with various parties now without waiting for his inauguration, as evidenced by his recent direct communications with both the Russian and Ukrainian presidents without disclosing the details of either call. This approach could be seen as an effort to set the stage for reaching a settlement agreement that may remain in limbo until its final shape emerges post-inauguration.
In any case, Trump’s actions in resolving the Ukraine conflict may provide insight into what he might pursue regarding the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza, relying on a policy of exerting pressure on all parties, setting tight timelines for negotiations, and potentially reintroducing and reshaping the “Deal of the Century” concerning the Palestinian issue.
