How Does Political Polarization Alter the Future of German Power?
Germany is currently undergoing a profound political, economic, and social transformation that is likely to impact the future and strength of this democratic country, especially in the context of party fragmentation. The popularity of the two main parties (the Social Democratic Party and the Christian Democratic Union) is declining, while the Free Democratic Party (liberal) and the Green Party, representing the new middle class, only receive limited support.
In contrast, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a right-wing populist party, is gaining popularity in both poor eastern regions and wealthy southern areas, breaking the stereotype that far-right supporters are always impoverished. This reflects a growing intellectual trend towards preserving national identity and reducing manifestations of globalization, as evidenced by various opinion polls where 58% expressed dissatisfaction with democracy and its role in the country’s revival.
Amidst this political and party climate, the French Institute of International Relations published an extensive analytical report in October 2023 on the “Rising Political Polarization in Germany,” discussing the impact of this political phenomenon on the future of the country and its connection to Europe in general.
Declining Trust:
The report attributes the severe shake-up of democracy in Germany to a combination of internal and external factors. On one hand, the socialist social policy, which began in the 1970s, has not achieved its desired results. This policy had focused heavily on integrating Russia into a European peace system even after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. However, this policy was abandoned following the Ukraine war in 2022, particularly as it allowed Moscow to extend its influence over important European regions.
On the other hand, the rise of the far-right AfD reflects a political trend in the country towards withdrawing from the European Union, abolishing the euro, opposing migrants, and rejecting climate change policies. Constitutional measures have failed to curb the rise of this populist trend, and in fact, the AfD has frequently ranked second after the Christian Democratic Union in various national opinion polls, with percentages ranging between 19% and 23%. It has also surpassed the Social Democratic Party, to which the current German Chancellor belongs.
The regional parliamentary elections in Bavaria and Hesse on October 8, 2023, highlighted the infiltration of right-wing populist thinking into German society. The populists achieved notable results and a significant increase in votes. The AfD came in second in Hesse (with 18.4% of the votes, a 5.3% increase from the 2018 elections) after the Christian Democratic Union (34.6%), while the Social Democratic Party placed third (15.1%). The Green Party’s share fell to 14.8%, and the Free Democratic Party’s share decreased to 5%.
In Bavaria, the AfD ranked third (14.6%, a 4.4% increase from the 2018 elections) behind the Christian Union (37%, a poor result considering the party’s history and status) and the Free Voters (15.8%). The Green Party’s share fell below 14.4%, and the Social Democratic Party won 8.4%.
The popularity of populist parties has recently increased in the eastern German states (Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg), which could affect the upcoming elections in these regions in September 2024. Generally, the AfD leads significantly in these areas compared to other parties, and regional governments could be formed without the AfD if a large coalition of other parties is established.
In this context, regional and global challenges have cast shadows over Germany, including the euro crisis (2010 and beyond), the migration crisis (2015 and beyond), the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021), the Ukraine war (2022), and the gradually increasing climate crisis. These challenges have exacerbated the country’s political and economic situation and cast doubt on the future of democratic policies.
Gradual Fragmentation:
The report considers that party fragmentation in Germany has been relatively delayed compared to the rest of Europe. It divides the party dynamics in this country into three main phases. The first began in the 1980s with the rise of the Green Party, following environmental protest movements against industrial pollution and opposition to nuclear energy. The second phase saw the emergence of the Social Democratic Party after German reunification, which is considered the successor to the East German Communist Party. This party merged with the Labor and Social Justice Party in 2005 to form the Left Party. The third phase was marked by the establishment of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in 2014, following the Eurozone and migration crises. The AfD gained significant parliamentary presence, becoming the third largest parliamentary bloc after the Liberals, the Left Party, and the Greens in 2017, and the fifth largest bloc in 2021.
The current German party system is characterized by proportional representation, which aims to match the proportion of votes with the number of seats to ensure greater political stability. This principle requires a party to obtain at least 5% of the votes to participate in the parliament. As a result, the system now consists of 5 to 6 major parties, whereas it previously relied on the Christian Democratic Union, the Social Democratic Party, and the Liberals, which made it relatively easier to mobilize the electorate for parliamentary elections.
The features of political fragmentation have led to reduced party affiliation, an expanded array of available parties, and difficulties in forming coalitions. The political diversity of governments has increased, making political stability more challenging. Achieving a parliamentary majority is no longer a foregone conclusion for coalition formation, even between the two main parties: the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats.
Populist Explanations:
With the rise of populist parties in a democratic country like Germany, decision-makers and research centers have turned to studying the factors affecting changes in individual voting behavior, such as age, education, religion, residence, employment, income, job status, reliance on social benefits, the proportion of foreigners or migrants in the area, and political attitudes, including authoritarian tendencies and xenophobia.
Some empirical research has attributed changes in voting behavior to economic reasons, noting that supporters of populist parties, such as the AfD, often suffer from unemployment or work in unstable jobs. They feel marginalized and opposed to globalization due to its direct negative impact on them. Conversely, other studies found no significant differences in AfD support between wealthy and poor regions in Germany, citing voting patterns in Bavaria and Hesse as evidence. These studies suggest that the German economy has not been negatively affected by globalization; rather, globalization has provided opportunities for global prosperity.
Studies also indicate that AfD support increases proportionally with the voter’s gender, educational attainment, and income level, based on election results from 2017 and 2021. Thus, various and interconnected factors drive different groups to support populist parties, not limited to economic factors but including social and personal characteristics.
European Expansion:
The report points out that the rise of populist parties reflects a prevailing trend in Europe that began before this phenomenon emerged in Germany. This trend is driven by interrelated factors such as preserving national borders, pride in identity, reducing the negative effects of globalization—such as political and cultural alienation—and the rapid spread of economic crises between countries, like the Eurozone crisis in 2010.
Some believe that globalization is merely a means to increase the wealth of rich countries, while poorer nations suffer. Consequently, the promises of increased prosperity for all through the exchange of goods and capital in a large market aimed at the common good have vanished. In France, anti-globalization sentiment and support for right-wing and left-wing parties were evident in the Yellow Vest movement. Meanwhile, populism influenced the “Brexit” phenomenon in the UK, aiming to regain national control, even at a high economic cost.
This means that populism is not confined to Germany but has been spreading in Europe for some time. Accordingly, the French Institute of International Relations report suggests there are many speculations that right-wing and left-wing populist opponents may gain a significant number of seats in the European Parliament in 2024, while centrist parties that once held a prominent position may see a decline.
Source: Philip Manow, Ein tief verunsichertes Land – Politische Fragmentierung und Polarisierung im Deutschland der Gegenwart, French Institute of International Relation, October 2023.
