SIPRI-2024: Global Arms Movement Trends and Future Forecasts

In March 2025, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released a fact sheet on international arms transfer trends from 2020 to 2024. The sheet highlighted the major arms exporters and importers globally, as well as their market shares.

First: Major Arms Exporting Powers:

The top five arms-exporting countries accounted for approximately three-quarters of global arms exports (72%). American and European arms exports made up about 73% of total arms exports during the period (2020-2024), compared to 61% during the period (2015-2019). The SIPRI report showed the following trends:

1. The United States leads the list of the world’s largest arms exporters: The United States topped the list of the world’s largest arms exporters during the last five years (2020-2024) with a 43% share of total exported arms, a 21% increase from the levels of the period (2015-2019). Saudi Arabia was the largest recipient of American arms with a 12% share, followed by Ukraine with a 9.3% share, and Japan with an 8.8% share. American arms exports to European countries more than tripled, reaching a 33% share.
2. France replaces Russia: Ukraine, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Norway topped the list of the largest European recipients of American arms exports during the period (2020-2024). France ranked second during the period (2020-2024) with a 9.6% share, an 11% increase. It is worth noting that France replaced Russia, which had held the second position for a long time, but its arms exports experienced a sharp decline, accounting for a 7.8% share, a 64% decrease from the levels of the period (2015-2019).
3. Decline in China and Germany’s export shares: There was no significant change in the fourth and fifth positions, which were occupied by China and Germany (in that order), despite their global shares declining by 5.4% and 2.6%, respectively.

Second: Middle East Indicators:

1. Arms exports: Five Middle Eastern countries ranked among the top 25 global arms exporters. Israel ranked eighth with a 3.1% share, Turkey ranked eleventh with a 1.7% share, Iran ranked eighteenth with a 0.4% share, the United Arab Emirates ranked twenty-first with a 0.3% share, and Jordan ranked twenty-third with a 0.3% share. Turkey uses arms exports as one of the tools to enhance its influence in geographically distant regions. For example, Turkey ranked third as the largest arms exporter to West African countries with an 11% share.
2. Arms imports: Middle Eastern countries collectively accounted for about a quarter of total arms imports during the period (2020-2024) (27%). However, this share experienced a 20% decline from the levels of the period (2015-2019).

Ten Middle Eastern countries ranked among the world’s largest arms importers during the last five years. Middle Eastern countries received the second-largest share of American arms exports during the period (2020-2024) with a 33% share, a significant decrease from the share during the period (2015-2019), which reached 49%.

Despite France exporting major arms to 65 countries during the period (2020-2024), most of them went to countries in Asia and Oceania. Middle Eastern countries ranked second with a 28% share, with the largest portion going to Qatar, which was the second-largest recipient of French arms with a 9.7% share. Middle Eastern countries were the fourth-largest recipient of Russian arms with a 6.4% share, and the largest recipient of German arms with a 37% share, with the largest portion going to Egypt (19%) and Israel (11%).

Third: Future Forecasts:

Long-term European plans to enhance the defense sector: The emergency European summit on March 6, 2025, approved plans to enhance the defense sector by approximately 800 billion euros in the coming years. However, the impact of this will only be seen in the long term, as Europe still urgently needs the United States. The purchase or production of arms, as well as the development of training and recruitment systems, will take at least ten years. Additionally, Europe lacks the necessary advanced armament systems provided by the United States, such as air and missile defense, long-range precision strike capabilities, and surveillance and reconnaissance systems. The strain on ammunition and missile stockpiles due to the Ukrainian war is also a concern.

Russia’s need for recovery: Indicators show a 64% decline in Russian exports over the last five years compared to previous levels. This is mainly due to the Ukrainian war and the redirection of military manufacturing capabilities towards the war effort, which affected arms export operations. Additionally, there are pressures on the Russian defense industry sector. Even if efforts to de-escalate the Ukrainian front succeed, the Russian defense industry will take a long time to recover.

Decline in Iranian arms exports: Despite the significant increase in the share of Iranian arms exports during the period (2020-2024), which reached 749%, it is expected that the volume of Iranian arms exports will decline. This is in light of the relative cooling of the war in Ukraine, with Russian negotiations with both the American and Ukrainian sides in this context. Therefore, Russia will not have an urgent need for Iranian arms. Iran will focus on meeting its own defense requirements, especially after the escalation with Israel, the disruption of its regional supply lines, and the limited nature of its external defense relations due to the sanctions imposed on it over its nuclear program.

Increase in Turkey’s share of the defense export market: Turkey’s export share increased from 0.8% during the period (2015-2019) to 1.7% during the period (2020-2024), a 103% increase. This is attributed to the nature of Turkish policies that aim to deliver its defense exports to more than one market and maintain growth rates that reached 7.154 billion dollars in 2024. Turkey aims to achieve unprecedented rates in the coming years. Meanwhile, the volume of Turkey’s arms imports is declining due to the increasing reliance on domestic production, reaching 70% by the end of 2024.

Here are the key statistics from the “SIPRI-2024” report presented in tables:
Table 1: Major Arms Exporting Powers (2020-2024)

Table 2: Top Middle Eastern Arms Exporters (2020-2024)

Table 3: Middle Eastern Arms Imports (2020-2024)

Table 4: Future Forecasts

These tables summarize the most significant statistics and forecasts from the “SIPRI-2024” report on global arms movement trends.