Changes in Chinese Foreign Trade in 2025

Chinese foreign trade surged in 2025, with the total value of imports and exports during the first quarter reaching approximately 10.3 trillion yuan (1.41 trillion USD), marking a 1.3% increase compared to the same period last year. Exports rose by 6.9% to 6.13 trillion yuan, while imports fell by 6%. Additionally, the number of trading companies increased by 33,000 to a total of 529,000 companies, reflecting a silent reshaping of China’s global trade map.

However, behind these apparent figures, three fundamental shifts are unfolding:

1. Geographically: China’s export map is quietly being restructured; eastern markets are declining, while western markets are gaining increasing momentum.
2. Structurally: Private companies are driving commercial activity instead of government entities.
3. Technologically: Advanced and specialized products are dominating an increasing share of exports.

Since the outbreak of the trade war between China and the United States in 2018, Chinese trade has become more diversified and less dependent on the American market, with the share of the United States in China’s exports dropping from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024.

In the first quarter of 2025, trade with countries involved in the “Belt and Road Initiative” grew by 2.2% to reach 5.26 trillion yuan, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) maintained its position as China’s top trading partner, with growth of 7.1% to 1.71 trillion yuan. Exports to Asia rose by 7.8%, and to Africa by 12.5%, with China experiencing growth in exports to over 170 countries and regions within the first quarter alone.

Private companies are the driving force behind this transformation, recording a 5.8% growth in trade during the first quarter, surpassing the national average, now accounting for 56.8% of total Chinese trade and over 86% of the total number of trading companies. What is even more noteworthy is the quality of traded goods: exports of industrial robots surged by 67.4%, advanced machinery by 16.4%, and imports of surgical robots nearly doubled.

Exports from these companies to emerging markets, such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, have stabilized, while exports to the European Union rose by 7.1% and to Japan by 4.8%. As the Chinese saying goes, “A good apple flies far.”

Several factors are driving this transformation, notably:

• Innovation: Private companies have become leaders in technological innovation, from open AI models like DeepSeek to dancing robots at spring celebrations.
• Cross-border e-commerce: Private companies like Shein, Temu, and DHgate are leading a new revolution in direct-to-consumer sales abroad. Beginning April 16, 2025, DHgate ranked second among free apps on the US App Store, just behind ChatGPT.

Additionally, the rise of new productive forces is leaving its mark on foreign trade; the machinery manufacturing sector grew by 7.6%, while exports of electromechanical products reached 5.29 trillion yuan, up 7.7%, driven by exports of computers, home appliances, and electronic components. Conversely, imports of key spare parts, from ships to marine equipment, increased. At the same time, exports of local brands rose by 10.2%.

In this landscape, private companies and the central and western regions of China emerge as promising forces; these companies are more flexible and faster than government companies but face the challenge of gaining the trust of customers who still prefer state-supported enterprises due to their stability and reliability.

On the internal geography level, the central and western regions of China are entering a more positive phase in foreign trade; having previously struggled with distance from ports, they now benefit from new trade corridors, including:

• The China-Europe Express Train
• The China-Laos Railway
• The new International Land-Sea Trade Corridor

These geographical links are bolstered by free trade agreements, such as:

• The Belt and Road Initiative
• The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
• The Free Trade Area between China and ASEAN

Shipping is no longer always the best option; rail transport, with its speed and flexibility, is asserting itself strongly. Additionally, digital trade adds a new dimension to reshaping the commercial landscape.

These transformations open new horizons for China, particularly for its inland regions and private companies, positioning them to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of global trade in a world where the rules of the game are constantly changing.