Armenia continues its efforts to strengthen relations with the European Union, having announced on January 9, 2025, that it will submit a bill to the Armenian Parliament to begin the accession process. This move comes amid escalating tensions between Armenia and Russia, which has questioned Armenia’s potential membership in the EU, presenting it with a choice between EU membership and remaining part of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Eurasian Union, both led by Moscow. This situation adds further challenges to Armenia’s accession process should it commence. To quell these concerns, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan indicated the possibility of holding a direct public referendum regarding joining the EU or remaining in the Eurasian Union. In either case, Armenia’s decision could rebalance the power dynamics in the South Caucasus, which is witnessing a series of complex geopolitical changes amidst ethnic and sectarian divisions that exacerbate regional and international competition, especially following Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 war against Azerbaijan.
Key Implications
In the past five years, Armenia has shifted its domestic and foreign policies away from the Russian sphere of influence, which was its “strategic ally,” especially after losing the war against Azerbaijan and its control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023 to Baku. Armenia has accused Russia of failing to provide military support and has sought to strengthen its economic and military cooperation with the EU and the United States. Overall, Armenia’s moves towards rapprochement with the EU can be summarized in the following points:
Support from Political and Social Forces for EU Membership: A group of pro-Western Armenian political parties, including the Republican Party, the Party for the Republic, and the European Party of Armenia, along with several civil initiatives, collected 60,000 signatures in October 2024 to present a bill to parliament to initiate EU accession procedures. This number exceeds the 50,000 signatures required for the petition to be considered by parliament. The organizers mentioned that if the parliament rejects the petition after discussions, they would launch another petition for a referendum on the matter, which would require a minimum of 300,000 signatures.
Armenian Government’s Plan to Open Up to Europe: The Yerevan government announced on January 9, 2025, its support for the initiative, referring it to the Armenian National Assembly, where it is expected to pass after extensive discussions, provided the parliamentary blocs remain as they currently are—with a pro-Western majority. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan clarified that the final decision will be made through a referendum, emphasizing that once the bill is adopted, a roadmap for beginning accession in cooperation with the EU would be established, reinforcing Armenia’s independent foreign policy based on its interests within a framework of external balance.
EU Efforts to Strengthen Relations with Yerevan: Cooperation between the EU and Armenia dates back to 2009 when the EU launched the Eastern Partnership program to enhance collaboration and direct support to six former Soviet states, including Armenia. Under this program, Yerevan was granted “trade preferences” with EU countries. In November 2017, the EU signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with Armenia. Subsequently, in 2021, the European Commission announced Armenia’s inclusion in the next phase of the Creative Europe program (2021-2027). At the Armenian Global Summit at the end of 2024, Pashinyan confirmed that his country would not miss the opportunity to join the EU.
Increasing EU-Armenian Cooperation in Recent Years: The EU has consistently provided economic support to Armenia, amounting to over €211 million from 2017 to 2020. In September 2023, the EU approved additional aid of €5 million to assist Armenia in caring for its displaced citizens from Nagorno-Karabakh and allocated €10 million to enhance social and economic stability. Pashinyan attended the Fourth Summit of the European Political Community in July 2024, highlighting the importance of cooperation between Yerevan and Brussels. In May 2024, the EU announced the opening of a new communication and support office in Yerevan.
Armenia’s Attempts to Exit the Russian Sphere of Influence: The Armenian bill for EU membership represents a recent step in Armenia’s policy to escape Russian influence. Since its independence, Moscow has been the “primary guarantor” of Armenia’s sovereignty and security, a principle that was undermined after its military defeat to Azerbaijan. Armenia’s steps to distance itself from Moscow include ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court in October 2023, which issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, indicating a potential arrest should he visit Yerevan. This prompted Moscow to label the move as “ill-advised” and raised questions about Armenia’s leadership.
Future Challenges in Joining the EU: Armenia’s prospective EU accession process will face numerous internal and external challenges, including:
Opposition within Armenia: Former Armenian Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan, leader of the opposition Armenian Front, described Yerevan’s current moves toward the West as a “gamble,” warning that previous Soviet states seeking EU integration at the expense of relations with Russia lost territory to Moscow.
Economic fallout from leaving the Eurasian Economic Union: The Russian Deputy Chair of the International Affairs Committee, Andrey Klimov, stressed that joining the EU would result in Armenia’s exit from the CIS and the Eurasian Union, suggesting significant economic repercussions.
Concerns over Russian Retaliation: Observers surmise that Russia’s lack of support for Armenia during the recent war against Azerbaijan might be a reaction to Armenia’s Western rapprochement, raising fears of similar consequences if Armenia joins the EU.
Complications in the Accession Process: Analysts noted that geographical factors could hinder Armenia’s EU accession, as it is not directly connected to EU territory, potentially relegating its application behind other candidates.
Regional Powers’ Concerns: Neighboring countries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan are wary of increased European influence in Yerevan, while Iran also resists an EU presence that could threaten its regional projects.
Future Scenarios
Given these dynamics, Armenia faces three potential scenarios for EU membership: acceptance after prolonged and complex negotiations, outright rejection tied to Georgia’s membership, or the establishment of a free trade area with Armenia while keeping it in the European framework without actual EU membership. Should any of these options be implemented, they are likely to reshape the balance of power in the South Caucasus, especially after a final peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is approximately 80% complete. This would enhance Azerbaijan and Turkey’s regional stature and diminish Russia’s influence, leading the West to continue appealing to former Soviet states to distance themselves from Russian influence.
