Winning of Noboa: How will the presidential election results affect the political scene in Ecuador?

The current president, Daniel Noboa (center-right), triumphed in Ecuador’s presidential elections, where no president has been re-elected in over a decade, defeating his leftist opponent, Luisa Gonzalez, by a significant margin of about 12 points, or more than a million votes. Noboa received 56% of the votes in the second round of elections held on April 13. In contrast, Gonzalez garnered 44% of the voters’ support. With these results, Noboa has been re-elected for a four-year presidential term after being elected in early elections in October 2023, less than a year and a half ago, to complete the presidency of his predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved parliament amid corruption allegations and attempts to remove him from office.

These results contrast sharply with polling expectations that predicted a very tight runoff, and they oppose the global trend since the COVID-19 pandemic, which has seen officeholders punished. Furthermore, Noboa’s victory does not reflect popular satisfaction with the security or economic strategies he implemented. Three out of five Ecuadorians say their personal security and economic conditions have not improved during Noboa’s brief tenure. In light of this, the election results raise numerous questions about the reasons behind Noboa’s substantial victory and its implications for Ecuador’s internal and foreign policies.

Multiple Factors

Several factors contributed to Noboa’s re-election as president of Ecuador, including:

Tough Stance on Organized Crime: Since 2021, Ecuador has seen an increase in violence due to a sharp rise in crime rates associated with cocaine trafficking from neighboring Colombia and Peru. Although insecurity has been rising under his leadership, Noboa’s hardline approach towards criminal gangs and successfully instilling fear among voters regarding crime and violence has gained him their trust, creating a desire to support his security strategy. As crime and violence grow, voters throughout Latin America, including Ecuador, tend to favor models that restore security through strict security policies like “Mano Dura” or “Iron Fist.” However, these policies often restrict citizens’ rights. In Ecuador, Noboa declared that the country is facing a state of “internal armed conflict” in January 2024, allowing him to deploy thousands of soldiers on the streets to combat gangs and file terrorism charges against individuals allegedly connected to organized crime groups. He has also imposed “state of emergency” decrees that limit freedom of movement and public gatherings, including nighttime curfews in some cities, and permit home searches without judicial authorization. The state of emergency was declared in seven provinces for 60 days on the eve of the elections.

Generous Social Programs: Noboa focused on the heavily populated coastal provinces that have suffered significant violence and where he failed to garner votes in the first round. He visited these provinces repeatedly alongside his wife and mother, Anabella Azin, who won a seat in the National Assembly with more votes than any other candidate and could be elected president of that body. Despite public anger over a 14-hour daily power outage crisis last year, the desire for economic stability influenced voters’ decisions in the runoff. Noboa’s tours around the country to implement public works programs provided him an additional advantage. Immediately before the elections, his government distributed cash payments to hundreds of thousands of citizens, claiming compensation for damage from oil spills or floods, while also expanding social programs.

Strong Alliance with President Trump: Noboa was one of the few Latin American leaders who attended the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump and visited him earlier this April at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Trump’s return to power prompted voters in Latin America to prioritize geopolitical pragmatism over ideology. Following a confrontation between leftist Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Trump in January 2025 over the issue of deporting migrants from the U.S., which led to Trump threatening to impose tariffs up to 50% on Colombian exports and cancel U.S. entry visas, it seems Ecuadorian voters were not willing to risk a repeat occurrence with their country under leftist leader Gonzalez, especially given her lack of full support for a partnership with the U.S., which could expose the country to strong American pressures. Voters preferred a candidate with good relations with Trump, who could serve their country’s interests and avoid direct confrontation with Washington.

Noboa’s Anti-Left Project Rhetoric: Through his intensive communication with youth via social media, Noboa (the youngest president in Ecuador’s history at 37) promoted a model of “New Ecuador,” contrasting with the left’s “Old Ecuador,” which has seen some of its senior leaders face corruption charges, including former president Rafael Correa, a major supporter of Gonzalez, who was sentenced in absentia for corruption in 2020. Much of Gonzalez’s support comes from people yearning for lower crime and unemployment rates that characterized Correa’s era, yet they ignore his authoritarian tendencies and the massive debts accumulated during his rule. Some voters had serious concerns about a return to Correa’s socialist policies. Gonzalez struggled to distance herself from Correa’s increasingly radical legacy and controversial alliances, particularly with Nicolas Maduro, but seemed to fail in this regard. Conversely, Noboa successfully framed voting for Gonzalez as a path to making Ecuador another Venezuela or Cuba.

Failure of the Opposition Candidate’s Electoral Strategy: Gonzalez’s defeat marks the third consecutive time that Rafael Correa’s “Citizen Revolution – RC” Party, the most influential in the country this century (2007-2017), has failed to return to the presidency, raising questions about its future and its relationship with voters. Regardless, Gonzalez told her supporters that her campaign “does not recognize the results presented by” the National Electoral Council, stating, among other things, that pre-election polls indicated she was ahead of Noboa. Similarly, Correa questioned the validity of the results and the integrity of the elections. The two candidates advanced to the runoff after receiving the most votes in the first round in the February elections. Noboa led Gonzalez by a margin of just about 17,000 votes. However, Gonzalez provided no evidence of fraud, and both the European Union mission and the Organization of American States, among others, firmly rejected allegations of electoral fraud in Ecuador. Additionally, some members of the Citizen Revolution Party acknowledged Noboa’s win. It is clear that the recent elections in Ecuador were about what voters want to avoid. Noboa has worked to demonize the leftist opposition by stirring voters’ fears regarding its positions on issues like Ecuador’s dollarized economy. Some members of the Citizen Revolution Party suggested creating a digital currency for Ecuador using the U.S. dollar as its official currency. Gonzalez also mentioned sending thousands of peace advisors to violent neighborhoods. Both ideas seemingly cost her the trust of voters who were weary of crime and cautious about anything that could harm the economy. Additionally, Gonzalez’s stances regarding Venezuelan migrants and her position on its president Nicolas Maduro shifted radically between the first and runoff rounds, losing her credibility with voters.

Important Implications

Noboa’s full presidential term until 2029 will likely allow him to implement his electoral program and complete the policies he began in the past, with anticipated implications for both the internal and foreign policies of the country, as follows:

Expansion of Strict Anti-Crime Measures: Noboa is likely to tighten his security policies to combat crime, especially since security has been the biggest concern for voters amidst rising kidnapping and extortion incidents. The first two months of 2025 were the deadliest in Ecuador’s history, with over one person killed every hour, according to data from the Ecuadorian Ministry of Interior. To address this deteriorating security situation, Noboa will likely activate some of his proposed plans, including constitutional changes to allow foreign military bases in Ecuador, establishing a foundation for the U.S. to assist Ecuador in combating insecurity. A week before the vote, Noboa hosted Eric Prince, founder of the American security company Blackwater, to help him with law enforcement and security measures. Amid severe insecurity, the Ecuadorian people are calling for more security, enabling Noboa to take more coercive measures and he may resort to ruling by presidential decrees if he fails to galvanize support within the National Assembly.

Escalating Internal Divisions: Although Noboa achieved a landslide victory over his leftist opponent, he will still need to take concrete steps toward “national reconciliation” and work on rebuilding trust and bridges with indigenous groups that supported Gonzalez. Additionally, Noboa, whose full presidential term begins on May 24, will face a divided National Assembly, with his party, the National Democratic Labor Party (ADN) holding one less seat (66) than the Citizen Revolution opposition party (67 seats). Neither party won a majority in the National Assembly elections held in February 2025. Before the runoff vote, Gonzalez negotiated a “programmatic agreement” with Pachakutik, an indigenous party that will hold nine seats in the National Assembly. It remains unclear whether the agreement will hold after Gonzalez’s defeat. The remaining nine seats are split among smaller parties and movements.

Strengthening Security Partnerships with the United States: Following his election victory, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote in a social media post that Noboa would not let the Ecuadorian people down, while the U.S. State Department termed the elections “free” and “fair.” It stated, “We look forward to continuing to work with President Noboa’s administration to stop illegal immigration and to end the violent crimes committed by drug cartels.” Noboa is likely to enhance Ecuador’s security relations with the United States, and some reports suggest he is preparing to host U.S. military forces at a new naval base on the Ecuadorian coast. In April, Noboa stated, “The government is also open to international bases, which is why we proposed a bill in the Assembly for joint operations with the Ecuadorian army and national police,” indicating his desire to strengthen cooperation with the U.S. on security matters. In 2024, Noboa introduced a partial amendment to the constitution to change a provision prohibiting “the existence of foreign military bases and facilities for military purposes” in the country. If approved, the proposal will be put to a popular referendum. Last year, Noboa reaffirmed two military agreements between Ecuador and the United States.

Enhancing Political Influence of the Right in Latin America: Noboa’s victory reflects that the right in Latin America is gaining momentum, and his success may inspire other right-wing candidates to achieve future electoral victories. Furthermore, this could strengthen ties further with Latin American right-wing leaders, especially since the Ecuadorian president has significant links with several right-wing counterparts, including El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, who has imposed a strong grip against crime and insecurity. It is not surprising that President Noboa received congratulations from many right-leaning leaders in Latin American countries, including Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, and Peru. However, this may not preclude Ecuador under Noboa from maintaining good relations with some center-left governments, such as Brazil and Chile, whose presidents congratulated Noboa on his election victory. Nevertheless, relations with Colombia, Ecuador’s northern neighbor, will present a real puzzle during Noboa’s term, especially since Colombian leftist President Gustavo Petro, who ideologically differs from his Ecuadorian counterpart, has so far avoided publicly discussing the election results in Ecuador, despite his foreign minister congratulating Noboa on his presidential win.

Continuing Ecuador’s Hardline Approach toward Mexico and Venezuela: During Noboa’s first term, Ecuador’s relations with Mexico experienced significant tensions, reaching the point of severing diplomatic ties after Ecuadorian security forces stormed the Mexican embassy in Quito in 2024 to arrest Jorge Glas, the former Ecuadorian vice president, who had been granted asylum by Mexico. In February 2025, Noboa announced a 27% tariff on Mexican imports. The president stated at the time, “New Ecuador has always been open to trade integration, but not when there is an abuse,” referring to Mexico benefiting more from trade relations with Ecuador. In fact, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum did not hide her support for Noboa’s opponent in the elections, expressing her desire for Gonzalez to win the Ecuadorian presidency. Even after the electoral authorities announced Noboa’s victory, Sheinbaum refused to acknowledge the result, stating in a press conference that “Luisa (Gonzalez), the candidate, does not recognize Noboa’s victory, so we will wait.” Similarly, tensions marred Ecuador’s relations with Venezuela, as Noboa refused to recognize Nicolas Maduro’s victory in the presidential elections held in Venezuela in July 2024, instead recognizing opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez as the country’s president, awarding him a national merit medal in January 2025. He also designated the Venezuelan criminal gang “Tren de Aragua” as a terrorist group and committed to selling up to 250,000 barrels of oil daily to countries currently buying from Venezuela, aiming to “stop funding a dictatorial regime,” as he put it. Additionally, he signed an agreement with Gonzalez Urotia’s team “to exchange data and combat illegal drug trafficking, mining, and human trafficking.” Recently, he revoked his presidential decree that granted amnesty to undocumented Venezuelan migrants in the country. In this context, it is unsurprising that Maduro refused to acknowledge Noboa’s recent election victory, describing it as a “terrible fraud,” and urged Ecuadorians to resist and defend their sovereignty.

In summary, despite the escalating crises, Ecuadorian voters granted current President Daniel Noboa a larger-than-expected victory in the elections on April 13. The increasing violence and economic stagnation did not prevent the 37-year-old president from presenting himself as a symbol of change, particularly when compared to his opponent Luisa Gonzalez. Noboa is now the second president in the country’s democratic history to win consecutive elections, an achievement made more significant by the deteriorating political and economic context. The elected president of Ecuador is likely to face numerous challenges in fulfilling his electoral promises, particularly regarding crime fighting and economic revitalization. Noboa is expected to multiply business-friendly policies, deepen relations with the International Monetary Fund and foreign investors, and pursue strict security strategies supported by international partners, particularly the United States.