Amid the ongoing military escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, France emerges as an international player seeking to mediate in this complex conflict. Drawing from its deep historical ties to Lebanon and its regional and international relationships, several factors enhance France’s chances of succeeding in this role, while at the same time, other factors appear to hinder its ability to accomplish this task effectively.
Supporting Factors
Among the key factors that enhance France’s potential to mediate between the conflicting parties are:
Previous French De-escalation Initiatives: France has deep cultural and political roots in Lebanon, having been its mandate power. This relationship grants France political influence within the country, especially among Lebanese political elites. Such a close relationship has enabled France to play an effective humanitarian and diplomatic role in past crises between Lebanon and Israel, notably in the 1982 war when François Mitterrand mediated the evacuation of Palestinian forces from besieged Beirut, and during the 2006 war when Jacques Chirac effectively contributed to UN Security Council Resolution 1701’s issuance. Moreover, France is viewed as an acceptable interlocutor by various communities in Lebanon, allowing it to engage with all parties without being seen as biased.
Openness Toward Hezbollah’s Political Wing: France refuses to designate Hezbollah’s political wing as a terrorist organization, believing this enables it to communicate effectively with the group. This stance gives France a competitive edge over some other European and Western countries that completely avoid contact with Hezbollah. Notably, communication between France and Hezbollah has continued for years, including a meeting on September 24, 2024, between French President Macron’s envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, and the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Mohammad Raad. French diplomacy justifies this position by asserting that Hezbollah is not only a military organization but also a political party in parliament, representing the Shiite community, which constitutes roughly one-third of Lebanon’s population.
Avoiding Complete Break with Iran: France’s stance on Hezbollah is part of a broader French policy marked by diplomatic flexibility towards Iran. This flexibility allows France to present itself as a power distinct from and not aligned with the American position, thereby facilitating direct communication channels with Iran. The meeting between Macron and newly elected Iranian President Masoud Behzadi-Khalkhali on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on September 25, 2024, reflects this diplomatic flexibility.
Close Cooperation with the United States: France views its diplomatic collaboration with Washington as a potential means to pressure Israel into agreeing to a ceasefire in Lebanon. Although the initiative led by France, in cooperation with the United States, on September 26, 2024, aimed at establishing a 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah did not achieve the desired outcome, France still believes that continuing to engage with Hezbollah while leaving the responsibility towards Israel to the U.S. is the quickest path to a ceasefire.
Obstructive Challenges
Among the significant factors hindering France’s mediating role are:
Divisions Within Macron’s Team: Some analyses suggest there are internal disagreements within President Macron’s team regarding the current crisis in Lebanon, particularly between the diplomatic cell and the communication department, with some supporting Lebanon and others favoring Israel. Even Macron’s video message to the Lebanese people in September, following the Beiruti bombings, aimed at reassuring them that a diplomatic track was underway but failed to address Hezbollah’s aggressive policies against Israel, shocked part of Macron’s camp. Pro-Israel factions within the presidential camp accuse Emmanuel Bonne, head of the diplomatic cell at the Élysée and former ambassador to Lebanon between 2015 and 2017, of working in isolation and not allowing Macron to benefit from external opinions.
Escalating Tensions with Israel: Some interpretations suggest that French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot’s visit to Beirut on October 2, 2024, highlighted France’s inability to mediate as Israel announced the commencement of its ground operation along the Lebanese border on the evening of the visit, during which Barrot called for refraining from ground attacks on Lebanon. These analyses argue that despite France’s attempts to portray itself as a neutral mediator, the Israeli perception is that France is closer to Lebanon.
Moreover, the increased Israeli distrust in French mediation was exacerbated by Macron’s announcement on October 5, 2024, supporting a halt in arms deliveries used in the Gaza war to Israel. This position garnered an angry response from Benjamin Netanyahu, who classified it as disgraceful. This tension between the two sides became apparent during a ceremony honoring the victims of October 7 in Paris on October 7, 2024, when Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s speech, which included that the Jewish community in France could rely on the president (i.e., Macron) for protection, was met with boos.
Diminished French Influence in the Middle East: France’s recent missteps in handling Middle Eastern issues have contributed to a decline in its influence, including poorly managing the Gaza war file initially, when Macron delayed visiting Israel after the events of October 7, and making an unclear statement about forming an international coalition against Hamas. Further, Macron’s failed initiative launched in Beirut following the port explosion in 2020 to resolve the political crisis there adds to the list of missteps that have weakened France’s role in the region.
Ongoing Lebanese Divisions: France is attempting to convince Lebanese political factions of the necessity of electing a president as a pathway to a ceasefire agreement, as the new president’s commitment to implementing Resolution 1701 in all its provisions would intensify pressure on Israel to halt the war. However, even this step has become a point of contention among Lebanese political forces; with a group consisting of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Socialist leader Walid Jumblatt, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri advocating for the election of a consensual president, while a second group, including the Lebanese Forces and some opposition factions, demands the election of a president who commits to implementing international resolutions 1559, 1680, and 1701. An additional complication arose after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Beirut on October 4, 2024, where the Iranian-aligned Lebanese faction demanded a ceasefire declaration before a president is elected.
Limits of the Role
Despite the current challenges hindering France from mediating in the ongoing conflict in Lebanon, the French role contributes to achieving the following:
Mitigating Risks Surrounding Lebanon: France is attempting to draw attention to the dangers of a large-scale ground invasion of Lebanon and emphasizes the need to protect its territorial integrity. It also seeks to protect Lebanon from the threat of collapse, especially following Netanyahu’s message to the Lebanese people on October 9, 2024, warning them of facing destruction and suffering alongside Palestinians in Gaza if they do not liberate their country from Hezbollah. French Foreign Minister Barrot responded to this message, categorizing it as a provocation, asserting that the destruction of Lebanon would worsen the security situation for Israel beyond its current state.
Striving for Balance Among Regional Conflict Parties: Achieving this balance is essential for bolstering the mediation role that France seeks to maintain, so as not to be accused of favoring one party at the expense of another in the conflict. Thus, when criticism was directed at Macron for not commenting on the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, French Prime Minister Barnier delivered an emotional tribute to the fifty-eight French paratroopers killed in a car bombing in Beirut in 1983, which France accuses Hezbollah of being involved in.
In the context of Israeli criticism directed at Macron for not speaking out against Iran, which arms Hezbollah, a shift in the French stance towards Iran has been noted; a press statement from the Élysée following the Council of Defense meeting on October 1, 2024, mentioned mobilizing French military resources in the Middle East to address the Iranian threat. This represents France’s first official acknowledgment of its contribution to countering Iranian missiles directed at Israel, along with a reminder from the head of state of France’s demand for Hezbollah to halt its terrorist activities against Israel.
Strengthening the UN Role: France is a significant supporter of the United Nations peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), contributing approximately 700 troops. It was also one of the first to condemn recent attacks against these forces, as Macron deemed it unacceptable for these to occur deliberately by the Israeli army. France is working to enhance the presence of these forces to ensure their effective monitoring of the implementation of Resolution 1701 following a ceasefire. Some analyses suggest that Israel is working to push these forces to withdraw to avoid hindering its military operations and eliminate any witnesses to its intended actions, along with its desire to establish a long-term buffer zone.
Supporting the Lebanese Army: France seeks to host an international conference on October 24, 2024, to support the Lebanese army to ensure its needs and enable it to carry out its missions in the post-ceasefire phase and to redeploy in the south. Western countries previously hesitated to support the Lebanese army out of fear that weapons sent would fall into Hezbollah’s hands, while Hezbollah used to excuse its arsenal by claiming the weakness of the Lebanese army and its inability to defend Lebanon.
In conclusion, while the French role in the ongoing conflict in Lebanon is limited and faces multiple challenges, it remains pivotal for preserving what is left of stability in the country. France aims to mitigate potential risks and maintain a delicate balance among the conflicting parties, in addition to strengthening the UN’s role to ensure the implementation of international resolutions. Despite the criticisms and pressures it faces, Lebanon remains one of the last bastions of France’s waning influence on the international stage.
