On November 11, 2024, the Korean Central News Agency reported that Pyongyang ratified a treaty for mutual defense with Russia, signed by the leaders of both countries—North Korean Kim Jong Un and Russian Vladimir Putin—in June. The treaty calls for each side to assist the other in the event of an armed attack.
Sources indicated in October 2024 that North Korea sent several thousand troops to Russia to assist in its war in Ukraine. While both Moscow and Pyongyang have not confirmed or denied this development definitively, China’s silence and lack of a clear public stance reflect concerns about the increasing military closeness between North Korea and Russia. This relationship raises many alarms for China, a strategic ally of both countries, particularly regarding the potential implications for Beijing’s regional and global role and status.
Diverse Contexts:
The decision to send North Korean military forces to Russia stems from the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis and is linked to various contexts surrounding the trilateral relations between China, North Korea, and Russia. These can be clarified as follows:
Chinese Discontent towards Pyongyang: China has had historically close ties with North Korea for over seven decades, viewing Beijing as its closest ally, especially due to their treaty of cooperation and a 1,146-kilometer shared border. However, recent signs of China’s dissatisfaction with North Korean actions emerged, particularly regarding the extent of Russia-North Korea relations. Beijing has expressed discomfort over North Korea sending military forces to Russia to participate in the war against Ukraine. In early October 2024, President Xi Jinping notably omitted the traditional reference to North Korea as a “friendly neighboring country” in his message of thanks to Kim Jong Un on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
Increased Military Cooperation between China and Russia: Beijing and Moscow have a strategic partnership, especially in military and economic domains. Recent military cooperation has significantly increased, marked by joint military exercises and exchanges between high-ranking military officials. In September 2024, Russia and China conducted “Ocean 2024” drills in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk to strengthen strategic cooperation in response to security threats.
Growing Military Cooperation between Russia and North Korea: Relations between Russia and North Korea have notably increased in recent years, particularly since the onset of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, focused on defense and military cooperation. This was highlighted by the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June 2024, committing to mutual military support in case of external aggression.
China’s Motivations:
Several underlying motivations explain Beijing’s concerns regarding the growing military ties between North Korea and Russia:
Significance of North Korea for China: A historical saying by Chinese leader Mao Zedong emphasizes the closeness of China and North Korea as “lips and teeth.” North Korea serves as a buffer zone between China and U.S. allies in East Asia. The fall of Kim Jong Un’s regime could result in millions of refugees crossing into China, posing significant economic and social challenges. Conversely, China is North Korea’s main lifeline, accounting for over 90% of its trade. The closure of borders due to COVID-19 in 2020 led to a 4.5% decrease in North Korea’s economy.
Increased Western Alignment in Asia-Pacific: A major concern for China is that North Korea’s involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian war could lead the U.S. and its allies to further align militarily in the Asia-Pacific, a development China wishes to avoid. Beijing views NATO’s expansion into Asia and in particular its strengthening ties with Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea as detrimental to its interests and regional stability.
Impact on Power Balance in the Korean Peninsula: North Korea deploying troops in Russia may destabilize the power balance on the Korean Peninsula, prompting the U.S., Japan, and South Korea to reinforce their military alliance in East Asia against North Korea’s increasing military ambitions.
Potential Involvement of China in the War against Ukraine: China fears that North Korea’s military engagement in Ukraine could embroil Beijing in the conflict since an attack on North Korea would necessitate China’s defense obligations under their treaty.
Increased Arms Race in the Region: North Korea’s military actions in Ukraine could be aimed at advancing its nuclear capabilities, potentially accelerating the arms race in the Korean Peninsula—an unwelcome and worrying development for China.
Moscow and Pyongyang’s Efforts to Isolate Beijing: Russia’s collaboration with North Korean forces could be an attempt to distance or isolate China from developments enhancing their strategic partnership.
Potential Implications:
The growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia is likely to lead to several implications for China:
Reduced Chinese Influence in North Korea: Despite historical ties, deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia could diminish China’s substantial influence over Pyongyang, stressing Beijing’s preference for a political solution over military escalation.
Increased American Pressure on China: The U.S. has applied pressure on China to compel North Korea to refrain from active participation in the Ukraine conflict, urging Beijing to leverage its influence over North Korea.
Rising Western Security Engagement in the Region: NATO views the military collaboration between Russia and North Korea as a security threat, potentially catalyzing military alliances in the region with key Asian allies.
Effect on China’s Status and Role: As primary allies in a multipolar vision contrasting with U.S. hegemony, any actions by North Korea and Russia that conflict with Chinese interests could undermine Beijing’s goals for a globally multipolar system.
In summary, North Korea’s military deployment to Russia poses a substantial challenge for China, a key strategic ally, especially considering the established strategic dynamics among the three nations. While the situation presents complications for China, it is likely that Beijing will adopt practical foreign policy measures to mitigate impacts on its vital interests and regional standing.
