Recent protests by French farmers against a potential free trade agreement between Europe and Mercosur countries—aligned with the official French stance—raise fundamental questions about the limits of French influence in European politics. After France played a pivotal role in leading the EU during crises such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, its influence has notably declined since the electoral defeats faced by President Emmanuel Macron in 2024, which shifted focus towards domestic issues.
Contributing Factors
France is currently facing escalating challenges that have diminished its influence in European policies, hindering its traditional role as a leader within the EU. These challenges can be outlined as follows:
Erosion of Macron’s Political Legitimacy: Recent electoral defeats for Macron’s camp—losing ten seats in the European Parliament elections in 2024 and the absolute majority in early national elections in July 2024—have directly impacted France’s capacity to play a leadership role in the EU. With the loss of the parliamentary majority, the French government has become compelled to focus on domestic affairs, reducing its European influence. Moreover, the dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024 has exacerbated political instability, weakening European partners’ confidence in Paris’s ability to provide reliable leadership, and diminishing foreign investors’ trust in investing in France, making it less influential in European decision-making.
Economic and Financial Weakness of France: France is grappling with a rising debt crisis and a financial deficit, raising concerns among other European countries, particularly in the northern bloc. Paris’s announcement of its inability to comply with EU deficit rules until 2029 has eroded its credibility as a leading state. At the same time, the political and legal uncertainty has negatively affected foreign investment, which has dropped by 49% since 2024, reflecting a declining image of the French economy and weakening its ability to influence European economic policies.
Loss of Strategic Positions within the European Commission: Some analysts argue that the resignation of Thierry Breton, who deemed Ursula von der Leyen’s administration opaque, from his position as European Commissioner in September 2024, has weakened French influence inside the Commission. Paris has lost its sway in key areas such as the internal market and energy. The appointment of Stéphane Séjourné as Executive Vice President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy has brought responsibilities that are less influential compared to his predecessor, raising concerns about France’s reduced capacity to steer European policies. In this context, a notable statement from Manon Aubry, a European Deputy from the “France Insoumise” party, highlighted that Séjourné is a miniature Macron sent to the Commission without consulting the French people. Additionally, some analyses suggest that the tense relationship between Macron and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will further contribute to the decline of French influence within the EU, especially since Macron perceives her as aligning with U.S. policy towards China.
Deterioration of French-German Relations: The Franco-German relationship, the core driving force of the EU, has significantly deteriorated under the Macron-Scholz dynamic due to fundamental differences on economic and strategic issues. Germany’s support for the free trade agreement with Mercosur countries, opposed by France, has deepened the divide between the two nations. This disparity in views has negatively affected the required harmony in directing EU policies, making France less able to negotiate effectively alongside Germany, thus greatly weakening its standing.
Opposition to the Free Trade Agreement with Mercosur Countries: France’s opposition to the free trade agreement with Mercosur nations—Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay—has reinforced its image as a hindrance to European integration, especially as Macron himself leads a strong campaign against this agreement. During a visit to Buenos Aires on November 17, 2024, he stated that France would not sign this agreement. This opposition has heightened the feeling of French isolation within the EU, particularly among member states that view such agreements as an opportunity to enhance European global influence. To justify its opposition, France argues that the agreement would lead to a 5% annual increase in deforestation in Mercosur countries and contradict the Paris Climate Agreement. France faces internal and external criticism for its protectionist policies, particularly in agriculture and trade, which has contributed to the impression that it is unable to adapt to the EU’s modern trends.
Impact of Domestic Opposition on Foreign Policy: The French government is under significant pressure from internal opposition, including both right and left-wing parties, which exploit European challenges to undermine government legitimacy. This opposition has fueled anti-EU rhetoric within France, with the National Rally (far-right) and France Insoumise (far-left) openly opposing the free trade agreement with Mercosur, viewing it as a threat to French agriculture and food sovereignty, negatively impacting Paris’s ability to present a unified vision or effective leadership within the EU.
A European Challenge
The decline in French influence on European policies will have tangible repercussions, potentially affecting the structure of the EU and its internal power dynamics. Key implications include:
Weakening of Strategic Leadership within the EU: The decline in French influence may create a leadership vacuum within the EU, impeding progress on major projects, such as the “strategic autonomy” initiative supported by President Macron. According to some analyses, the absence of a strong French presence will contribute to slowing down plans to enhance European defense capabilities and expand joint investments, such as in energy and digitization. French initiatives to propel a common European defense agenda will falter due to France’s inability to garner necessary support from member states, particularly amid strained relations with Germany. In this regard, Friedrich Merz’s statement, a likely contender for the German chancellorship in the early elections in February 2025, that Germany will increasingly rely on NATO for European defense, exemplifies the discord with Macron’s vision of European strategic autonomy.
Increased Influence of Conservative and Extremist Forces: The decline in Macron’s parliamentary bloc coincided with the rise of conservative and extremist blocs, leading to a shift in the legislative priorities of the EU. The coalition between the European People’s Party (EPP) and far-right parties is likely to weaken the influence of liberal pro-Macron factions in the European Parliament. For example, recent European election results caused the liberal Renew group (supporting Macron) to lose the presidency of the Civil Liberties Committee, which previously issued ten texts concerning the asylum and migration charter during its prior term. This shift will directly impact the moderate French vision’s ability to influence key European legislation.
Decline of Unified European Initiatives: France’s opposition to the Mercosur free trade agreement may encourage other countries to adopt more isolationist policies, threatening to erode the single European market. Additionally, France’s failure to comply with deficit rules will negatively affect its ability to lead extensive financial reforms within the EU, increasing the influence of countries advocating austerity policies, such as Germany and the Netherlands. In this context, it was notable that French Agriculture Minister Annie Génovese remarked on November 11, 2024, that it is becoming difficult to build a blocking minority within the EU to prevent the adoption of the Mercosur agreement, which would require at least four member states representing 35% of the EU’s population. Overall, French reluctance to support major European projects will slow down the implementation of EU policies in other key areas, such as joint defense cooperation.
Weakened Balance in European Relations with Global Powers: The decline of French influence will alter the balance in the EU’s relations with global powers; while countries like Germany seek to strengthen partnerships with the U.S. and China, France tends to adopt more independent and competitive stances. Moreover, the conflicting positions between Paris and Berlin on trade with China will overshadow the EU’s ability to negotiate as a single bloc, thereby weakening its influence on the international stage.
Empowerment of Other States at the Expense of France’s Role: The decline of French influence in the EU will create opportunities for other nations to enhance their roles in shaping European policies, such as Germany, which will work to solidify its position as a key player in the Union. Spain also has ambitions to influence the European Commission’s policies on green energy, infrastructure, and agriculture. Other European countries, such as the Netherlands, are looking to bolster austerity policies, while Italy aims to fill the vacuum in leading EU agricultural and trade policies. It aspires to become the primary European interlocutor for North African countries. Even Poland will seek to assert itself as a significant player, especially in defense and energy matters, benefiting from the decline of French-German relations. Ultimately, the EU’s approval of the free trade agreement, despite French opposition, will reflect a shift in European priorities, moving away from the need for European consensus toward specific majorities.
Limits of the Decline
In the upcoming phase, French influence on the European stage will be linked to several key factors:
Continued French Influence in Strategic European Areas: Despite the challenges facing France, it still retains notable influence in strategic European domains. This is evident in the similarities between the agenda of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, launched in July 2024, and Macron’s speech at the Sorbonne II in April 2024. Macron has supported the establishment of a European Defense Council that includes defense ministers from member states, aligning with the Commission’s vision for enhancing defense cooperation. Moreover, the Sorbonne II speech emphasized the importance of building cyber defense capabilities and creating a European Iron Dome, initiatives that have become part of the Commission’s vision for 2024–2029. French influence is also evident in promoting a return to nuclear energy within European policies aimed at reducing energy prices and achieving independence, a vision that Macron reinforced in this speech.
Potential for Major Political Crisis in France: Major political crises in France, such as renewed calls for Macron’s resignation or the collapse of the current cohabitation government, could deepen domestic instability. Such crises might lead to early elections in the summer of 2025. If this scenario unfolds, a victory for the National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen could result in a radical change in French policies, significantly impacting its traditional role within the EU, particularly regarding support for European integration and common policies.
Macron’s Ability to Launch New Influential Initiatives: Macron may leverage his remaining influence in European politics, similar to previous French presidents like Mitterrand and Chirac during periods of cohabitation; he could strengthen his presence in the European Council and continue to launch impactful initiatives, as he did in previous cases like the Ukraine crisis. His ability to do so may be supported by the diplomatic and military presence that France still enjoys due to its permanent membership in the UN Security Council and its military and nuclear strength.
Continuing French Presence in Key European Positions: The presence of French figures in leading roles, such as Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank, reflects France’s ongoing involvement in European decision-making mechanisms. By displaying some political flexibility and the ability to adjust priorities and positions, France could regain some of its lost influence, particularly if it restores relations with Germany and unifies efforts with other countries, such as Italy and Poland, on strategic issues like the environment and agriculture.
In Conclusion
Despite the political and economic challenges it faces, France’s influence within the EU persists. However, this influence is fragile and may decline further in the upcoming phase if internal crises are not addressed and momentum is not regained in key European strategic files.
