The attack on Lido Beach carried out by Al-Shabaab in the Somali capital Mogadishu on August 1st, which resulted in the deaths of over 32 civilians and injuries to about 63 others, is part of a series of ongoing attacks by the terrorist group since January 2024. This incident highlights the group’s increased targeting of civilians in Somalia compared to the previous year.
A review of Al-Shabaab’s operations since the beginning of this year shows a close temporal proximity between the attacks targeting civilians. The period between the attack on the crowded Lido Beach in early August and the bombing of a café in Mogadishu on July 15, which killed 5 people and injured about 20 others, was less than 15 days. Earlier, in mid-March, the group attacked the SYL Hotel in Mogadishu, resulting in the deaths of three people and injuries to 27 others, including 18 civilians and 9 soldiers.
As Al-Shabaab regains control over some areas previously seized by the Somali army, with the support of local clan militias and African Union forces, and due to American airstrikes since August 2022, the group has sought to break the relationship between civilians and government forces. This raises questions about the significance of the group’s recent increase in civilian targeting and the motivations behind this trend.
Implications of the Shift:
The increase in Al-Shabaab’s targeting of civilians through suicide bombings or explosions indicates several key points, particularly as the attacks since the beginning of 2024 have been similar in execution, focusing on crowded public areas. It is likely that these operations will expand in the coming period to target rural areas inhabited by clans cooperating with the Somali government. The main implications include:
Failure of the security strategy by international parties involved in peacekeeping operations in Somalia: The focus has been on naval bases, training Somali forces, and addressing political and economic issues, while direct confrontation with Al-Shabaab’s leadership and elements in urban and rural strongholds has declined. This has led to the group reclaiming some of its old territories and expanding into new, densely populated areas with reduced security presence due to financial crises affecting the salaries of security forces. Additionally, in recent times, the group has infiltrated some government institutions in liberated areas, reestablishing ties with former collaborators. The last three civilian-targeted operations occurred in public areas that were supposed to be secured.
Change in Al-Shabaab’s ideological foundations and tactics: This shift is common among terrorist groups when they perceive a threat to their survival. Previously, the group mainly targeted security forces and the military, with limited attacks on civilians. However, there has been an increase in civilian targeting, justified by a false premise that citizens are responsible for their government’s policies, labeling them as “apostates” who pay taxes and cooperate with security forces. This distorted rationale, endorsed by Al-Qaeda theorists, has been used to target civilians in both Muslim and non-Muslim countries.
Decline in the performance of Al-Shabaab’s “Dawah Department” leadership: Particularly in their selection of new recruits and fighters. The group’s loss of compulsory recruitment in its old strongholds and the breakdown of its relationships with clans over the past two years have led to the inclusion of outsiders who have disrupted the group’s strategy, particularly in defending itself or attacking its targets.
A comparison of Al-Shabaab’s operations before and after August 2022 shows that cutting off its supply lines and its inability to collect resources from civilians, along with the loss of many training camps across Somalia, have led to poorly planned retaliatory operations against civilians. It is likely that these attacks will increase in the coming period due to the lack of experience among the group’s new recruits regarding the demographic makeup of areas where crimes against civilians are committed.
Motivations Behind the Targeting:
Al-Shabaab’s targeting of civilians in public areas recently is driven by several motivations, both ideological and strategic, to ensure its survival and impose its agenda. The key motivations include:
Revenge and spreading despair among Somali forces and cooperating civilians: Revenge is a common motivation for Al-Shabaab, which targets civilians to avenge their cooperation with security forces and to retaliate against government forces. Terrorist organizations, including Al-Shabaab, often target civilians to reduce the pressure imposed on them by security forces, knowing that increased civilian casualties will embarrass governments, forcing them to change their harsh strategies against terrorist groups.
Breaking the relationship between clans and security forces and undermining “popular resistance”: Al-Shabaab’s attacks on civilians serve as a message to local clans cooperating with the Somali army and African Union forces, as this cooperation has weakened the group’s alliances with societal forces, leading to the loss of recruitment sources and hiding places. Thus, the group hopes that escalating attacks against civilians in public areas will cause clans to reconsider their relationships with government forces.
Demonstrating internal cohesion and recruiting more fighters: Terrorist groups, including Al-Shabaab, often resort to guerrilla tactics, such as bombings or attacks on public places, when they cannot adapt to internal and external pressures threatening their existence, such as the targeting of a large number of their leaders or internal divisions. By targeting civilians in public areas, the group aims to retain its fighters and recruit more, while preparing to renew its attacks against the government and its allies.
Ideological motivation: Al-Shabaab, ideologically aligned with Al-Qaeda, targets civilians in public areas based on a doctrinal justification. In times of distress, terrorist organizations, including Al-Qaeda, justify civilian killings through a false fatwa issued by Al-Qaeda theorists, which declares those cooperating with government forces in the fight against them as apostates.
Conclusion:
The increased targeting of civilians in public areas by Al-Shabaab in 2024 may indicate a shift in the group’s nature and tactics, with an ideological approach dominating its actions. This suggests that more such attacks by the group can be expected in the near future.
