Upon announcing his victory in the presidential election, Trump expressed congratulations on the X platform, writing: “I congratulate my friend Donald Trump, who won the presidential election and was elected again as President of the United States.” Despite the fact that Trump’s previous presidency was connected to several contentious issues with Ankara, the main characteristic of the relationship remained a commitment to dialogue, in addition to the strong personal bond between Trump and Erdoğan. From the Turkish perspective, Trump’s success could lead to a series of actions aimed at resolving the Ukrainian crisis and ending the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon, which would directly and positively impact the Turkish economy and support Turkish interests in the region.
Notable Support
Throughout the election cycle in the United States, Turkey was keen to show implicit support for Trump’s victory, as summarized below:
Prompt Congratulations: Turkey was among the first countries to congratulate Trump after his electoral victory. Erdoğan tweeted: “We hope that relations between Turkey and the United States will strengthen and that regional and global crises and wars, especially the Palestinian issue and the war between Russia and Ukraine, will come to an end.” In Turkey’s view, Trump was seen as more appreciative of the partnership with Ankara, and unlike Biden, Trump met with his Turkish counterpart nine times during his first presidency.
Welcoming Republican Majority: Turkey welcomed the Republican Party’s victories in the Senate elections, regaining control of the chamber for the first time in four years. This Republican win gives them a broad position of power in Washington and significant authority over foreign policy issues, separate from the Democratic influence in legislative bodies. Notably, Erdoğan revealed in July 2024 that the change in the U.S. administration following the November 2024 elections, referring to Trump’s victory, might positively impact Turkey’s growing defense sector, stating, “I believe the indicator is shifting in favor of Turkey.”
Condemnation of Trump’s Assassination Attempt: Turkey expressed disapproval regarding the assassination attempt against Republican candidate Donald Trump in July 2024. This was evident in Erdoğan’s condemnation during a phone call with Trump on July 18, 2024, regarding the armed attack on him during a campaign rally, as he wished him safety. Erdoğan described the assassination attempt as an attack on democracy, noting that “Trump’s brave stance after the heinous assault was impressive.”
Personal Dimension in Relations: Although Trump’s actions are unpredictable, the personal connection between him and Erdoğan has served Turkey well on many issues, especially given Trump’s admiration for Erdoğan, whom he referred to as a strong leader. Consequently, it’s likely that Turkey’s relationship will evolve according to Trump’s preferences rather than being mediated by U.S. institutions, which displayed notable rigidity regarding Turkish demands and interests during Biden’s administration.
Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton disclosed in his 2020 book “The Room Where It Happened” that Trump is fond of foreign authoritarian leaders, including Erdoğan. Bolton added that Trump told Erdoğan he considered him “a close friend” and expressed discomfort over sanctions imposed on Turkey in 2018 due to the detention of pastor Andrew Brunson, viewing these sanctions as an insult to Turkey. Trump’s family’s business ties with Turkey date back to 2012, marked by the establishment of the “Trump Tower” in Istanbul.
Potential Developments
The Turkish-American relations may witness divergent developments in the coming period, especially after Trump secured his presidential candidacy. The most prominent possibilities include:
Potential Expansion of Turkey’s Regional Role: Trump’s new presidency is likely to give more momentum to Turkey’s regional role, particularly as he views Turkey as a strategic ally rather than a threat to American influence. His statements on desiring to end the Ukrainian war and neutralize Iranian influence send positive signals to Turkey, which sees itself as a key player in alleviating the pains of these crises. Given that Trump’s vision aligns significantly with Turkey’s desire to curb Iranian ambitions in the region and end the Ukrainian conflict, it is expected that Ankara will seek to regain its influence in various regions, including the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Balkans.
Possibility of Turkish Gain from Trump’s Policies in Syria: Despite anticipated clashes on various issues between Ankara and Trump, the latter’s arrival at the White House may provide a favorable opportunity for Turkey to contain the Kurdish Self-Administration and undermine the Kurdish project in northeastern Syria. Turkey may also be more cautious regarding normalization with Damascus or making concessions to domestic Kurds for resolving the Kurdish crisis, particularly with Trump’s potential negative stance towards the Kurds in Syria.
In this context, some estimates suggest Turkey may benefit from potential steps that Trump might take, such as reducing or withdrawing American military presence in Syria, minimizing support for the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, and instead focusing on establishing safe zones to encourage the return of Syrian refugees. This could prompt Turkey to militarize its response against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Syria and Iraq, or at least retreat from making concessions related to the Kurdish issue.
Neutralizing European Pressures on Ankara: Trump’s arrival in the White House may compel the European Union to reframe its relations with Turkey by softening criticisms directed at Erdoğan’s domestic practices and Turkey’s alignment with European sanctions on Moscow due to its war in Ukraine. Given Europe’s concerns about Trump’s negative stances towards NATO and Western security alliances, this might push Europe to correct its relationship with Turkey.
Limiting Democrat-Supported Lobby Groups: Trump’s victory is likely to enhance Erdoğan’s influence within Turkey, particularly regarding neutralizing pressures from local opponents and addressing several lobby groups that received Biden’s support, especially LGBTQ advocates. While Erdoğan insists on combating “homosexuality” and the supporting lobby groups, Trump’s rejection of LGBTQ rights could provide Turkey an opportunity to expand its confrontational stance against that ideology.
Overlooking Human Rights Criticism in Turkey: Washington is likely to adopt a more lenient approach regarding the condemnation of human rights situations in Turkey following Trump’s ascension, in contrast to Biden’s administration, which issued sharp critiques concerning various domestic behaviors of the Turkish government and accused Erdoğan of reshaping the internal landscape to suit his political ambitions by suppressing the activities of local opponents. This situation raises concerns among Turkish opposition ahead of Trump’s rule, as his overall policy does not focus on democracy and freedoms but rather on mutual interests.
Strengthening U.S.-Turkish Security Relations: Throughout Biden’s administration, Turkey struggled to achieve significant breakthroughs regarding unresolved security issues, primarily the return to F-35 fighter jet production programs and the removal of all restrictions on Turkey’s acquisition of advanced F-16 aircraft, especially as Congressional Democrats resisted enhancing defense cooperation projects with Ankara. Given these developments, and considering the friendship between Trump and Erdoğan and the Republicans’ dominance in the Senate following the recent elections, it is likely that Washington will adopt a more conciliatory stance regarding defense cooperation projects with Turkey.
Opportunities and Challenges
In conclusion, Trump’s return to the presidency could enhance opportunities for Turkish-American cooperation in the forthcoming period. However, several challenges remain, primarily Trump’s unwavering support for Israel and the difficulty in effecting serious changes in Trump’s approach to Russia’s S-400 missile system issue. Furthermore, Trump’s pledge to increase tariffs to around 20% may impact the volume of Turkish imports to the United States.
