After the surprising results, the media is trying to understand what led to Donald Trump’s significant victory. The Republican candidate managed to expand his voter base beyond ethnic divisions and attract young men, while Kamala Harris mainly retained college-educated voters. The social divide between these groups and non-college-educated voters appears to be decisive.
In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s clear victory and that of the GOP – the Grand Old Party, as the Republican Party is known – the United States and the world are slowly recovering from the shock. They are attempting to comprehend the striking extent of the Republican candidate’s success, which brought together voters from certain demographics that were not at all aligned with him in 2016.
Eight years ago, Donald Trump won largely through a successful strategy: reshaping the Republican Party to become the “political home” for “white working-class Americans,” as reminded by The Wall Street Journal. Since then, he has led the GOP toward an even greater ambition: “To become a party that appeals to working-class voters regardless of their racial identity.”
Class Struggle
The group of white voters without a college degree, who represented 54% of Trump’s electorate this year, has remained loyal to him for eight years, notes the business daily, which relies on preliminary results from the AP VoteCast voter survey. However, this group is also “a declining force as the population diversifies and becomes more educated.”
Fortunately, the GOP can now “count on voters from minority backgrounds,” the article continues. Indeed, support for Donald Trump has increased among Black and Latino voters: among the former, it has nearly doubled compared to 2020, reaching 15%, and among the latter, it has risen by six points, totaling 41%.
An explanation emerges: this election was primarily decided over the division between social categories. Non-college-educated voters, across all ethnic groups, represent a total of 60% of the American electorate. Among them, Trump “wins by a twelve-point lead,” compared to only four points in 2020. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, maintained a fifteen-point lead with voters who have higher education degrees.
El País adds a finding based on exit polls conducted by CNN: “Trump increased his support among the lowest income brackets,” including those earning less than 50,000(46,000euros)peryearandthoseearningbetween50,000(46,000euros)peryearandthoseearningbetween50,000 and $100,000 (between 46,000 and 92,000 euros) annually.
In both cases, he has “erased the Democrats’ advantage,” specifies the Spanish daily: both parties are nearly tied among these low and middle-income voters – which does not equate to non-college-educated individuals.
Strong Performance Among Young Men
The gender factor also played a major role. Women primarily vote Democratic, while men lean Republican.
Overall, however, this gender gap has not significantly increased since 2020, as the Wall Street Journal shows: both male and female voting shifted in favor of Trump in similar proportions. The Republican candidate increased his advantage among male voters and reduced his disadvantage among women.
Among those under 30, however, the divide has become much more pronounced. Young women have largely remained Democratic, while young men “have significantly shifted to the right”: whereas Joe Biden led by fifteen points among this demographic in 2020, the Republican candidate has reclaimed them with a thirteen-point advantage over his rival.
