Although the Republican billionaire has long been seen as the boogeyman of the Chavista regime since his first term, some experts cited by regional media suggest that a shift in strategy regarding Venezuela may not be out of the question.
Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States on November 5 appeared to spell bad news for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. During his first term, the Republican billionaire supported the parallel government established in 2019 by Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó and imposed heavy sanctions that suffocated the country’s economy, yet failed to oust the Chavista leader.
This context explains the relief felt by the current opposition leader, María Corina Machado, who asserts—backed by evidence—that the Venezuelan presidential election in July was stolen by Maduro.
She urged Trump to “do what he must […] It’s time to facilitate and support a transition” in Venezuela during an interview reported by Crónica Uno.
Machado also has some connections with certain Latino representatives from the hard-right wing of the Republican Party, including future Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is staunchly opposed to negotiations led by Joe Biden’s administration with Caracas.
However, experts interviewed by various media outlets caution that the future Trump administration’s support for the Venezuelan opposition is not guaranteed.
First, because the former South American oil powerhouse is far from being Trump’s main geopolitical concern as he is more focused on competition with China.
“Trump is not interested in a solution for Venezuela. Venezuela is just an accessory he uses in his campaign against communism. Unfortunately, there are Venezuelans in the ‘MAGA’ (Make America Great Again) camp who believe what he says is true,” stated Venezuelan analyst Sergio Sánchez, who broke away from Chavismo in 2017, in an interview with Efecto Cocuyo.
A “deal on migration”?
Secondly, because the maximum pressure strategy implemented during Trump’s first term yielded no results, Trump, who favors strongmen, might choose to adopt a more pragmatic approach, according to American academic Michael Shifter, a Latin America expert, speaking to the BBC:
“I don’t rule out the possibility that Trump could do something with Nicolás Maduro similar to what he did with Kim Jong-un: a complete 180-degree turn and a change in approach.”
For Shifter, Trump might look to “placate Maduro’s regime to find an agreement on the migration issue, which is important for him.”
This could explain the overtures made by Maduro towards the American president, as he has expressed a willingness to bet on “a new beginning and a win-win relationship,” particularly as he seems less isolated than before in a continent where the left has gained traction.
To save face, the president may also “opt for a middle-ground solution,” suggests Sergio Sánchez. This solution would involve negotiating Maduro’s exit by replacing him with another member of his party, taking advantage of the successor to Hugo Chávez’s lack of legitimacy.
