Yamando Orsi, the candidate from the left-leaning Broad Front opposition, won the runoff presidential election in Uruguay held on November 24, 2024, defeating his opponent Álvaro Delgado, the governing coalition’s center-right candidate. Official results showed that Orsi secured a narrow but comfortable victory with 49.8% of the votes compared to 45.9% for Delgado.
The elections took place in a relatively calm atmosphere with little tension, reflecting considerable alignment in the platforms of the presidential candidates from both the conservative and liberal coalitions. This election is particularly significant as it marks the end of a series of elections in various Latin American countries throughout 2024. Prior to Uruguay, elections were held to choose new presidents in El Salvador, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Venezuela, raising questions about whether the results in Uruguay represent an exception or a continuation of trends seen in other countries in the region.
Key Interpretations
The results of the presidential election in Uruguay, along with the associated events during the campaign, have several important implications:
Return of the Left to Power: Orsi’s victory signals the end of a brief period of center-right governance under President Lacalle Pou, which began in 2020, and paves the way for the return of the leftist Broad Front party, which had governed Uruguay for fifteen consecutive years until 2019. Orsi, a working-class history teacher and former mayor of the capital, Montevideo, signifies a continuation of recent electoral wins for the left in Mexico and Venezuela, where leftist candidates won presidency. In contrast, right-leaning candidates won the presidency in El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, and Panama in 2024.
Public Vote for Change: Of the six presidential elections in Latin America in 2024, candidates from the governing party won in El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Venezuela, while Panama and Uruguay bucked this trend. In Panama, conservative candidate José Raúl Molino defeated the ruling party’s candidate in May 2024. Similarly, Uruguay’s election acted as a form of “protest vote” against the policies of the ruling National Party amid sluggish economic growth, stagnant wages, high crime rates, and a series of corruption scandals involving officials from the Lacalle Pou government in 2023.
Intensifying Electoral Competition: The results of the runoff in Uruguay indicated heightened competition among candidates. Despite polls predicting an Orsi victory, the margin was only about 95,000 votes, indicating a significant convergence in the visions presented by Orsi and Delgado during their campaigns. There was broad agreement between the contenders on key issues, and the election was characterized by experienced politicians with moderate stances promoting reconciliation and unity for a better future for Uruguay.
Leadership Role of Current and Former Presidents: Current President Lacalle Pou and former President José Mujica played key roles during the critical runoff phase of the election, each mobilizing support for their respective candidates. Lacalle Pou strongly backed Delgado, while Mujica expressed support for Orsi, highlighting the contrast between the modest lifestyle of Mujica and Orsi’s working-class background, marking a significant political lineage in Uruguayan politics.
Relative Absence of Widespread Violence: Unlike elections in several other Latin American countries marked by security irregularities and political unrest leading to violent incidents and candidate fatalities, Uruguay’s electoral process was characterized by a high degree of security, with no major violent outbreaks, reflecting decades of internal peace and political stability in the country.
Decreased Influence of Regional Political Polarization: While some Latin American countries have witnessed heightened political and ideological polarization, Uruguay’s presidential election lacked this divisive atmosphere, suggesting stability and a lack of critical structural issues similar to those seen in other regional countries.
Possible Outcomes
Yamando Orsi’s victory in Uruguay could have several implications for both domestic circumstances and foreign policies:
Avoidance of Radical Changes Focused on Social Justice: Orsi has announced no plans for radical shifts in the country’s primary “social-democratic” orientations and shares similar goals with his opponent to reduce child poverty and address rising organized crime. He aims to avoid tax hikes that could deter investors while suggesting reforms to the social security system.
Increased Need for Political Dialogue with the Opposition: This is the first time the Broad Front will govern without a parliamentary majority, having won 16 of 30 Senate seats. Orsi now faces the challenge of fulfilling his promises to boost economic growth and combat inequality without raising taxes or securing a majority in the House of Representatives, necessitating dialogue with the opposition to pass legislation.
Enhancing Regional Economic Cooperation: Orsi has expressed solidarity with leftist leaders in the region. Uruguay under his presidency is likely to maintain good relations with both left-leaning and right-leaning governments, given the absence of major conflicts with its Latin American neighbors.
Less Focus on Developments in Venezuela: Orsi’s election raises questions regarding relations with Venezuela. During the campaign, he condemned Nicolás Maduro’s government, labeling it authoritarian. However, Maduro congratulated Orsi after the election, and Orsi has not outlined specific plans for future relations with Venezuela.
Relatively Good Relations with the United States: The new Uruguayan government will commence its term just before Donald Trump’s second inauguration. Given Trump’s likely appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, the U.S. is expected to pay increased attention to Latin America, particularly regarding concerns over Chinese influence.
Continued Openness to China: Relations between Uruguay and the U.S. might face some strains due to historical leftist opposition to U.S. imperialism and interest in joining broader economic blocs like BRICS. Orsi’s welcoming stance towards Chinese investments and initiatives could further complicate relations with Washington.
In summary, Orsi’s victory in the Uruguayan presidency represents a model for other Latin American nations, characterized by minimal political violence and departure from polarized political climates. It is unlikely to result in significant changes in the country’s core orientations, both domestically and internationally, reflecting a general consensus among political parties on key citizen concerns.
