Following diligent efforts involving several regional and international forces, the announcement was made regarding the reach of a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, which took effect in the early hours of November 27, 2024. The agreement contains 13 clauses that include various security arrangements agreed upon between Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah, with the sponsorship of numerous parties, including the United States and France.
Despite the wide welcome for this agreement, it does not negate the fact that it faces numerous obstacles due to differing interpretations by each party of the clauses included within it. This ultimately means that the agreement remains fragile until both parties (Israel and Hezbollah) can prove its viability toward achieving a long-term truce, similar to what occurred after the 2006 war, and possibly rely on it for reaching a land border demarcation agreement, as was done concerning maritime borders.
Driving Factors
The process of reaching a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is driven by several factors, the most significant of which are:
Israel’s desire to focus on managing tensions with Iran: The agreement was reached about two months before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, 2025. It is anticipated that he will prioritize managing tensions with Iran in his foreign policy agenda. This indicates that the agreement was motivated by Israel’s wish to concentrate on the direct conflict with Iran, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, alongside the announcement of the agreement, that one of his goals is to focus on the Iranian threat.
This means that Israel is likely to pursue further escalatory measures against Iran in the coming phase, whether due to the support Iran provides to its allied militias in crisis-stricken countries or because Iranian nuclear activities have reached an unprecedented level, approaching the capability of producing a nuclear bomb.
A recent report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on November 19, 2024, revealed that the amount of uranium Iran has enriched to various levels has reached 6,604.4 kg, which is 32 times what is stipulated in the nuclear agreement (202.8 kg). Hence, it is expected that Israel will continue its operations targeting Iran’s nuclear program from within, alongside conducting military strikes against Iran-linked sites and its allied militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Tel Aviv’s aim to increase pressure on Hamas: Following the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, Israel may seek to exert greater pressure on Hamas to reach an agreement that facilitates the release of Israeli captives. In Tel Aviv’s view, one direct consequence of this agreement pertains to “dismantling the frontlines unity,” a principle previously adopted by the late Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated along with the Deputy Commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, Abbas Neelforoushan, on September 27, 2024. This dismantling could increase the pressure on Hamas to respond to renewed efforts in the coming phase aimed at achieving a ceasefire agreement in Gaza akin to the Lebanon agreement.
The growing need for both parties to de-escalate military tensions: Both Israel and Hezbollah needed to reduce the risks resulting from the ongoing conflict, as Israel seeks to alleviate its military burden across multiple fronts, while Hezbollah may look to reorganize its forces after sustaining losses. This comes at a time when both parties face internal military challenges, as continued attacks on Israel could lead to depleting military resources and increasing human losses—something Israel aims to avoid by reaching a ceasefire.
On the other hand, Hezbollah is looking to avoid a large-scale military escalation that could lead to a prolonged conflict with Israel, as the likelihood of significant human losses would rise among both its fighters and Lebanese civilians in the south. Additionally, with the growing Israeli military operations, Hezbollah needs the opportunity to reorganize and better consolidate its forces to avoid the destruction of its military structure distributed across Lebanon
