On November 18–19, 2024, heads of state and government from the G20, along with the African Union and the European Union, will convene in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for their annual summit. The G20 comprises 19 countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Russia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and two regional bodies: the European Union and the African Union. Brazil has invited eight additional countries to participate as guests at the G20’s nineteenth summit, namely: Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Angola, Nigeria, Norway, Spain, Portugal, and Singapore.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva aims to leverage the G20 summit to showcase the growing international influence of his country. The summit may reflect emerging divisions in global politics and the efforts of major powers to engage the Global South, presenting Brazil with various challenges that could impede achieving the desired outcomes from the summit.
Special Significance
The upcoming G20 summit in Brazil takes place against a highly complex international backdrop that offers opportunities but also imposes pressures on the summit’s presidency:
Escalating International Crises:
The G20 was established in 1999 in response to numerous global economic crises, gradually expanding its agenda to cover topics such as trade, sustainable development, health, agriculture, energy, the environment, climate change, and anti-corruption. It has become the primary forum for facilitating global economic cooperation, representing about 85% of the world’s GDP, over 75% of global trade, and roughly two-thirds of the world’s population. This year, the summit occurs amid a proliferation of international crises, marked by political and economic uncertainty, rising debts, increasing inequality, and more frequent and severe climate disasters, resulting in direct economic, financial, and social impacts worldwide.
Brazil now bears the responsibility of advancing a global development agenda in 2024. The country announced a three-pillar agenda focusing on combating hunger, poverty, and inequality; achieving sustainable development (economic, social, and environmental); and reforming global governance. These topics were chosen with an emphasis on reducing inequalities, central to the reform efforts, as reflected in the Brazilian presidency’s slogan, “Building a Fair World and a Sustainable Planet.”
Rising Geopolitical Tensions Among Major Powers:
The next G20 summit will be held amid deep divisions among major powers within the international system, characterized by changing power dynamics and a lack of cooperation and consensus. Brazil will need to navigate the current geopolitical tensions among G20 countries if it hopes to issue joint statements and conclude this year’s summit with a closing communiqué from the leaders, a feat India struggled to accomplish.
The Brazilian presidency will have to keep the conflicts between Israel and Hamas, Russia’s war in Ukraine, global economic sanctions, and ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China from overshadowing the summit, focusing instead on the original agenda of the G20. Recently, the debate over Brazil potentially issuing an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, following a ruling by the International Criminal Court—which reportedly influenced his decision not to attend in person—highlights the political tensions looming over the upcoming G20 summit.
The Rise of Global South Nations:
Brazil took over the G20 presidency from India on December 1, 2023, establishing a troika of three member countries from the Global South leading the group (India, Brazil, and South Africa). These three countries are also members of the IBSA group. Indonesia preceded India in leading the G20 in 2022, launching a four-year effort to prioritize the needs of the Global South amid tough global challenges such as climate change, geopolitical disruptions, and debt crises.
Both Indonesia and India made progress in negotiations on climate action, the inclusion of the African Union in the G20, and reforming multilateral development banks (MDBs). By the end of the 2024 summit, Brazil will hand over the presidency to South Africa. However, significant work remains to be done during the Rio de Janeiro summit to enhance and defend the interests of Global South nations.
The African Union Joining the Group:
After seven years of advocacy, the African Union was granted permanent membership in the G20 at the New Delhi summit on September 9, 2023, marking a significant step in increasing African representation in global economic discussions. Before the African Union’s membership, South Africa was the only African country to hold such status since the G20 summits began in 2008. Brazil was one of the supporting countries for the African Union’s permanent membership, citing the example of the European Union. The African Union will fully participate in this year’s summit in Brazil, granting it a platform to express the interests and priorities of African nations.
Potential Outcomes
The upcoming G20 summit is likely to yield several outcomes related to its agenda, with some potential impacts, including:
Progress in Combating Hunger: Tackling hunger is Brazil’s top priority within the G20 framework. The country has experience in lifting itself off the United Nations hunger map back in 2014. In July 2024, President Lula launched a global alliance against hunger and poverty. The alliance will serve as a platform connecting countries, financial institutions, and international organizations to implement a “list” of internationally recognized public policies. The formal launch of the alliance is set to coincide with the G20 leaders’ summit in November, and membership will be open not only to G20 countries but to all interested nations.
In March 2024, Brazil proposed taxing the wealthy, which could generate up to $250 billion annually. In July 2024, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors agreed to reference the need for fair taxation of “ultra-wealthy individuals” in their joint statement. They also issued a separate declaration on international tax cooperation as a key means of financing efforts against poverty and hunger, alongside combating climate change. Brazil has received support from significant partners, including France, although substantial progress is not expected during Brazil’s G20 presidency due to differing views among members regarding the best forum for addressing this issue, whether it be the United Nations or the OECD, along with some member states like Germany resisting the proposal.
Mixed Progress in Climate Change and Energy Transition Initiatives: Brazil has been at the forefront of both climate action and advocating for biodiversity protection and the preservation of the Amazon rainforest as an ecological and economic asset. President Lula’s promise to slow deforestation is already being honored. With half of Brazil’s energy mix being renewable, the country is on track to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Thus, the G20 presidency is an opportunity for Brazil to present its vision to the world before hosting COP30 in 2025.
On October 3, 2024, the G20’s Working Group on Environment and Climate Sustainability issued a ministerial declaration reaffirming its commitment to tackling climate change. This declaration focuses on four main areas: oceans, payment for ecosystem services, adaptation measures and financing, and waste and the circular economy. However, this agenda is likely to face resistance from countries such as India and China, which have high carbon emissions, as well as from affluent nations that may be unwilling to increase their financial commitments to support developing countries in addressing climate change.
Failure to Agree on the International Institutions Reform Agenda: Reforming global governance has been one of President Lula’s main agendas since his first term began in 2003. Brazil and other Global South countries seek to increase representation for developing nations in international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, with aspirations to include new members in the UN Security Council. However, expanding the Security Council’s membership is likely to be a challenging endeavor, facing obstruction from countries with veto power that oppose serious attempts for meaningful progress in this file, as it could weaken their own standing within the council.
Simultaneously, bringing more developing countries to the negotiating table places pressure on financial institutions traditionally dominated by Europe and the U.S. to consider proposals, such as the Brazilian suggestion to convert debt into investments.
Enhancing Brazil’s International Standing: By the time President Lula da Silva concludes his term in 2026, Brazil will have held the following rotating presidencies: the UN Security Council in 2023, the Mercosur trade bloc in 2023, the G20 in 2024, and the BRICS group in 2025, in addition to hosting the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in late 2025. These international events represent vital opportunities for Brazil to demonstrate its capability to lead on some of the most pressing issues in the international arena.
The Brazilian presidency of the G20 possesses the potential to build bridges between wealthy and poor nations, between the Global North and South. The themes it has prioritized for the agenda, such as combating hunger and addressing climate change, are areas in which Brazil has considerable expertise. To ensure the summit’s success, beyond governmental negotiations, Brazil will have to employ backchannel diplomacy through its membership in the expanded BRICS group (now including Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE alongside Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). It will also need to leverage its strategic partnerships with neighboring countries in South America and invigorate the IBSA group to enable policy coordination between India, Brazil, and South Africa.
Increased Civil Society Participation in the Summit’s Proceedings: From November 14 to 16, 2024, Brazil will host the first-ever Social Summit in G20 history. The event will last three days and aims to enhance the involvement of non-governmental stakeholders in the group’s activities and decision-making processes. The social G20 comprises 13 stakeholder groups: civil society, think tanks, youth, women, labor, cities, business, science, startups, parliaments, supreme audit institutions, courts, and oceans. Despite Brazil’s attempts to democratize and participatory enhance the group’s work, the participating non-state groups almost exclusively come from G20 countries, excluding governments and citizens from the rest of the world.
In light of the above, the 2024 G20 summit represents a unique opportunity for President Lula da Silva’s government to demonstrate Brazil’s capacity to lead the global governance discourse. Interestingly, the G20 summit in Brazil will occur less than a month after the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 22, and in the same month as the U.S. elections (November 2024), the results of which will significantly influence how the United States leads the G20 summit it will host in 2026.
The Brazil summit will also coincide with the UN Climate Change Conference COP29, which will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024. Negotiations at COP29 will pave the way for the international COP30 summit that Brazil will host in Belém in 2025, as well as Brazil’s presidency of BRICS in 2025. This will overlap with South Africa’s G20 presidency in 2025, providing the troika of Global South countries another chance to push discussions on climate action, sustainability, and global development, while also serving as a test of their ability to build consensus among various international power dynamics.
