What are the implications of escalating political tensions in Senegal?

Senegal is currently undergoing significant political transformations, the latest of which is the announcement by the “Alliance for Electoral Transparency” (ATEL) to organize a massive demonstration on September 27, 2024. This demonstration aims to increase pressure on the government to ensure that the legislative elections, scheduled for November 17, 2024, are free and fair. This announcement follows the Senegalese president’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly, which is dominated by the political opposition, as a preemptive measure against a possible vote of no confidence from Parliament. These developments are taking place amidst widespread tensions between the government and the opposition, tensions that could result in various consequences related to the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Intensified Tensions

Several indicators point to the worsening political tensions between the ruling system and the political opposition in Senegal recently, including:

Opposition Unity Against the Ruling Government: This has materialized with the formation of an expanded coalition by the political opposition on August 22, 2024, named the “Bloc of Liberals and Democrats” (BLD). This coalition includes a significant number of parties and political movements opposed to the ruling government, led by “Basiru Diomai Faye.” It encompasses approximately 40 political parties, including the “Alliance for the Republic” (APR), to which former president “Macky Sall” belongs, and the “Rewmi” party led by “Idrissa Seck,” who served as Prime Minister from 2002 to 2004 under former President “Abdoulaye Wade.” Seck has participated in the recent presidential elections for the fourth consecutive time in 2024 and was previously one of the most prominent opponents of former President Sall before later supporting him. Other parties in this coalition include the “Liberal Democratic Party” and the Senegalese Centrists Union (UCS). Notably, the founding declaration of this new coalition indicates that its primary objective is to consolidate human, material, and financial resources to establish an opposition bloc against the government. This bloc represents an ideological alternative to the ruling system and is intended to be a significant electoral force in the upcoming legislative elections to achieve a parliamentary majority that would force the ruling system into a coexistence scenario with the political opposition.

Announcement of the Dissolution of the National Assembly by the Senegalese President: In an official televised speech on September 12, 2024, the Senegalese president announced the organization of early legislative elections on November 17, 2024. This step, aimed at securing a stable parliamentary majority, follows a period of tensions between the ruling system and the opposition, which have escalated since President “Basiru Diomai Faye” came to power in April 2024. Prime Minister “Ousmane Sonko” refused to present the government’s general policy statement at the beginning of July 2024, arguing that the existing parliamentary regulations did not obligate him to do so after the abolition of the Prime Minister’s position in 2019. Although the Prime Minister’s role was reinstated in 2021, the provisions concerning this position were not reintroduced into the parliamentary internal regulations. Article 55 of the constitution stipulates that the Prime Minister must present a government policy statement outlining major policies, plans, and priorities to the National Assembly within three months of their appointment according to the provisions of the National Assembly’s internal regulations. These tensions worsened when the Senegalese Parliament, in early September 2024, rejected the constitutional amendment requested by President “Faye” to abolish the High Council of Local Communities and the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council. The parliament emphasized that the proposed amendment was populist, unnecessary, and dangerous, stressing the importance of the targeted institutions. The president condemned this decision, asserting that it reflects a deep rift between the majority deputies and the popular aspirations expressed significantly during the presidential elections in March 2024, in which he committed to robust obligations for institutional reorganization and fiscal rationalization, necessitating systematic adjustments to these institutions’ powers. It is noteworthy that the Senegalese president issued a decree terminating the roles of both the head of the High Council of Local Communities, “Aminata Mbengue Ndiaye,” and the head of the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council, “Abdou Daouda Diallo.” This led “Abdou Mbou,” the head of the parliamentary group “Benno Bokk Yakaar,” to announce his group’s intention to propose a no-confidence vote in a special session to overthrow the government, which was accused of using these measures to hold early legislative elections and protect the Prime Minister from presenting the general policy statement.

Formation of a Dedicated Opposition Platform for Elections: Senegalese opposition figures established a platform called the Alliance for Electoral Transparency (ATEL), with around 100 opposition political figures signing the founding charter for this structure. This entity aims to advocate for a transparent and fair electoral process on November 17, 2024. Members of this new alliance condemned the lack of consultation regarding the selection of the date for early legislative elections, emphasizing that organizing elections is not solely the prerogative of the ruling party or coalition. They pointed out that the constitution requires the participation of all stakeholders.

Opposition Announcement of Demonstrations to Pressure the Government: This was articulated in a statement from the Alliance for Electoral Transparency, which includes the former ruling coalition “Benno Bokk Yakaar,” and parties that were previously allied with the current ruling party “Pestif.” On September 19, 2024, they announced plans to organize a large demonstration on September 27, 2024, to increase pressure on the government to ensure free and fair elections. The complaints of this new coalition center around the lack of information provided by the government regarding the upcoming elections, its failure to consult political parties on the electoral process, and the perceived lack of organization and haste in preparing for the elections in a manner that may favor the ruling party.

Widespread Condemnation of the Ruling Party by Opposition Parties: This became evident in a statement by the leader of the “Next Generation Citizens Movement” and candidate in the recent presidential elections, “Anta Babacar Diak,” on September 13, 2024. She emphasized the state’s need for tangible solutions rather than political maneuvers. Additionally, the “Benno Bokk Yakaar” parliamentary group criticized the president’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly, accusing the new authorities of wanting to undermine democracy and establish dictatorship. They urged citizens to stand against what they described as a “return to a past era” and the risk of establishing dictatorship, calling for a significant defeat of the regime in the upcoming legislative elections.

Potential Implications

Several potential implications are associated with the intensifying political disputes between the ruling system and the political opposition in Senegal. These implications include:

Expansion of Opposition Parties in Forming Alliances Before the Elections: This is similar to the alliances formed recently, particularly the “Bloc of Liberals and Democrats,” aimed at securing a parliamentary majority. It is worth noting that the last parliamentary elections were held on July 31, 2022, and the next elections were supposed to take place in July 2027. If the opposition succeeds in securing a parliamentary majority, tensions between the government and Parliament are likely to persist, leading to continued non-coexistence between the two sides.

Efforts by Former President “Sall” to Support His Alliances: This involves attracting more influential figures to enhance his chances in the National Assembly after the legislative elections. This is evident in the recent announcement by the two former ruling parties in Senegal on September 22, 2024, that former presidents “Macky Sall” (Alliance for the Republic) and “Abdou Wade” (Senegalese Democratic Party) are forming a coalition to participate in the early legislative elections on November 17. This poses a challenge to current President “Faye,” especially since the two parties—Alliance for the Republic and Senegalese Democratic Party—held 106 out of 165 seats in the outgoing National Assembly.

Possibility of the Ruling Party Securing a Majority in the Upcoming Legislative Elections: This is supported by the popularity of the ruling party and the presence of former President “Macky Sall” within the prominent current opposition coalition. This may exacerbate public rejection of this coalition in light of the policies and practices observed during his tenure (2012–2024). Furthermore, former President Sall faces potential legal actions, especially regarding accusations of crimes against humanity related to the deaths of over 80 individuals during political protests during his term. He is also suspected of embezzlement and illicit enrichment, as a source close to the new system reported to the Senegalese newspaper “Sini News,” claiming that the former president amassed a considerable fortune estimated at about 1,000 billion CFA francs in the form of financial assets and real estate. Additionally, the division within the opposition is evident, as demonstrated by the announcement of former President “Macky Sall” on September 2, 2024, to dissolve the previous ruling coalition “Benno Bokk Yakaar,” which has dominated the political scene since its inception in 2012 until the recent elections won by the opposition. Some former officials of the previous president have defected and aligned themselves with the current president. Notably, this includes former Prime Minister “Aminata Toure,” whom President “Basiru Diomai Faye” appointed as the president’s high representative on August 27, 2024, due to her assistance in his election in March.

Escalating Tensions Between the Political Opposition and the Ruling System: This is likely due to President “Faye” and Prime Minister “Ousmane Sonko’s” rejection of any negotiations with the opposition, stating that such negotiations would incur a “high political cost.” Additionally, the issue of legal prosec

utions against officials of the previous system accused of causing the deaths of demonstrators during “Macky Sall’s” rule will remain sensitive and may impact future political negotiations.

In conclusion, the political tensions currently unfolding in Senegal reveal a crisis of coexistence between remnants of the old system under former President “Macky Sall,” who is trying to maintain a role in the future political landscape, and the current ruling system led by President “Basiru Faye.” The future vision suggests that the stability of the political situation in the upcoming phase will hinge on the ruling system’s ability to open effective lines of communication with the political opposition to build consensus on key unresolved issues, regardless of the outcomes of the upcoming legislative elections.