What are the expected implications of Turkey’s proposal to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine?

The developments in the Ukrainian scene, against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s focus on resolving the crisis and conducting negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, have shifted Turkey’s approach to the Ukrainian crisis. On March 6, 2025, Ankara announced its readiness to send troops as part of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine “if necessary,” reaffirming its support for all constructive initiatives aimed at establishing peace in the Black Sea region and rebuilding Ukraine. Turkish momentum increased with the announcement of European proposals concerning the establishment of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine following a ceasefire, while showing Ankara’s desire to be part of the crisis resolution, especially as Russian-American understandings on ending Russian intervention in Ukraine accelerated.

Aims to Achieve

Turkey aims to achieve several objectives through its proposal to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine:

1. Enhancement of Ankara’s Role in Mediation Efforts to End the War: Turkey’s desire to send forces to Ukraine is closely linked to its wish to be at the center of diplomatic efforts related to the war and to bolster its role in mediation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has expressed his aspiration to play a principal role in mediating between the parties involved in the Ukrainian crisis, relying on his country’s balanced diplomacy and relations with both Moscow and Kyiv.

According to various assessments, there is increasing Turkish concern about the possibility of being sidelined from attempts to resolve the Ukrainian war amid direct meetings between Russian and American officials after Trump returned to the presidency. In this regard, it is noteworthy that Turkey has hosted senior officials recently, including the Ukrainian president’s visit on February 17, 2025, and the Russian foreign minister’s meeting with the Turkish president on February 23, 2025, to discuss the arrangements for resolving the Ukrainian conflict.

2. Dismantling Differences Between Ankara and European Countries: Part of Turkey’s approach to the Ukrainian crisis is linked to its commitment to supporting Turkish-European relations and resolving contentious issues, particularly concerning the stalled negotiations for Turkey’s EU membership. Turkey views its accession to the EU as a “strategic priority.”

From Turkey’s perspective, an enhanced presence in peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv can be leveraged to pressure the EU to make concessions, such as visa liberalization and updating the Customs Union agreement. In this light, Turkey’s announcement about the possibility of sending forces to Ukraine aligns with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s assertion that Turkey wishes to be part of any new European security structure if NATO were to dissolve.

Simultaneously, Turkey recognizes that announcing a peacekeeping deployment in Ukraine sends a message to Europe, indicating that its security efforts regarding the Ukrainian war are not limited to guaranteeing Kyiv’s safety alone but also serve as a strategic deterrent to threats targeting European security. The presence of Turkish peacekeeping forces would clearly demonstrate Turkey’s readiness to defend the interests of the European bloc, which it views as an extension of its strategic interests.

3. Desire to Strengthen US-Turkey Relations: Erdoğan praised the initiative put forward by the US president to end the war, emphasizing that Turkey has a “unique role” in shaping a “new equation for peace,” which enhances regional stability and reorders the balance of power in the region. Ankara believes that using the peacekeeping forces card to ensure stability in Ukraine could open broader avenues for developing US-Turkey relations while simultaneously bolstering understandings regarding developments in the Syrian landscape by neutralizing American pressures on Turkish military operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.
4. Positioning Turkey as a Trusted Ally for Ukraine: Turkey’s announcement regarding the potential deployment of peacekeeping forces serves as a message of support to Ukraine, especially amid Kyiv’s fears of a possible deal between Washington and Moscow that solidifies the latter’s sovereignty over territories seized from Ukraine. From Turkey’s viewpoint, this step is a significant avenue to deepen its influence in Ukraine, especially since the Ukrainian president previously proposed deploying NATO troops to uphold a ceasefire in Ukraine once an agreement to end the war is reached. While Turkey might not undertake this step without prior arrangements with Washington and the warring parties, marketing the idea publicly promotes Turkey’s image as a reliable ally for Kyiv.
5. Supporting Turkey’s Role in Ukraine’s Reconstruction Projects: Turkey is aware that a significant portion of Ukraine’s reconstruction projects will be financed by Europe. Thus, the Turkish proposal regarding peacekeeping forces represents a proactive attempt to encourage Europe to support the presence of Turkish companies in Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts. For Ankara, the participation of Turkish firms in post-war reconstruction programs is a strategic priority, with Turkish companies having executed over 300 projects in Ukraine with investments exceeding $10 billion, including 70 projects completed since the onset of war; this reflects Turkey’s commitment to expanding economic cooperation with Ukraine in the coming phase.

Varied Consequences

The Turkish proposal to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, if implemented, could lead to several potential consequences, primarily including:

1. Straining Turkish-Russian Relations: This Turkish proposal might lead to heightened tensions between Moscow and Ankara; the former has announced its rejection of proposals to send foreign troops to Ukraine, viewing this as an infringement upon Russian influence, as Russia still regards Ukraine as part of its strategic sphere. Additionally, Turkey’s supportive stance toward Kyiv is expected to affect trade relations between Moscow and Ankara, potentially leading Russia to reduce its energy and agricultural product exports to Turkey.
2. Enhancing Defense Relations between Turkey and the West: Ankara’s approach is likely to encourage the United States and European powers to lift some sanctions imposed on Turkey’s defense industry, particularly concerning Turkey’s return to the F-35 fighter jet production program. While the Trump administration seeks to reduce NATO’s military mission roles, it might rely on Ankara for specific tasks within Ukraine. Following the exceptional summit decision on March 7, 2025, aimed at increasing European defense spending, the European Union may move toward strengthening military cooperation with Turkey, especially since Ankara’s approach closely aligns with the European vision.
3. Potential Stalemate in Turkish Mediation in the Ukrainian Crisis: Despite Ankara’s intentions to play a mediating role in the Ukrainian crisis, the proposal to send military forces to Kyiv, if necessary, could push Moscow toward adopting more hardline stances regarding Turkish mediation. While Russia has been more open to Turkish mediation—as evidenced by the recent visit of the Russian foreign minister to Turkey in February 2025—the Turkish proposal for peacekeeping forces would make Russia’s acceptance of any Turkish-mediated efforts contingent upon Ankara’s alignment with Russian interests, particularly regarding recognition of Moscow’s control over certain Ukrainian regions.
4. Strengthening Strategic Partnership with Kyiv: Various assessments suggest that Turkey’s proposal to send peacekeeping forces could create a fertile environment for enhancing strategic partnerships with Ukraine, particularly in defense and economic sectors, while leveraging this Turkish position to secure Ukrainian support for Syria, as evidenced by Kyiv providing around 500 tons of wheat on December 31, 2024, to the new Syrian administration, alongside the Ukrainian foreign minister’s visit to Damascus after Assad’s downfall, announcing Ukraine’s openness to the new administration.

Possible Repercussions

In conclusion, while Ankara’s proposal to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine can be leveraged to achieve multiple dual interests for Turkey in relations with European powers and Kyiv, it could also bear potential adverse repercussions, especially concerning its relationship with Moscow, which opposes such measures and views Ukraine as an extension of its influence in Eastern Europe.