Algeria is showing increased interest in intensifying its military and security movements to enhance its regional role, which has faced strong pressures recently. These pressures stem from both the widening disagreements with certain international and regional powers and Morocco’s success in garnering support from various countries for its approach to the Western Sahara issue.
In this context, the Chief of Staff of Algeria, Lieutenant General Said Chengriha, visited Mauritania on October 16, 2024, where the two countries signed an agreement to enhance border security. This step is significant in light of the regional developments occurring in the Sahel region, particularly the escalating conflict in northern Mali, which has prompted increased external interventions by powers such as Russia, Ukraine, and France. Tensions between Algeria and Moscow have also risen due to Russian support for the Malian army against the Azawad movements.
Multiple Objectives
Both Mauritania and Algeria aim to achieve the following goals with the signing of the border security agreement:
Contain Algeria’s diminishing influence in the Sahel: Relations between Algeria and Sahel countries, particularly Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, have become increasingly strained in recent years, especially following the political and military developments in those countries in the past four years. Mali has taken escalatory measures to prevent Algeria’s intervention in the north, which Bamako considers interference in its internal affairs. This has heightened tensions and led to a political crisis between the two countries, with Mali accusing Algeria of supporting the Azawad movements in northern Mali and Algeria expressing concern about the Malian army’s ongoing military operations against these movements along the border. A clear indicator of Algeria’s diminishing influence in the Sahel is the shift of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso towards strengthening their relations with Morocco. These countries joined the Atlantic initiative launched by Rabat in defiance of Algeria’s policies in the region. Consequently, Algeria appears to be working to strengthen its ties with Mauritania as part of its efforts to compensate for its lost influence and to address the new data generated by Morocco’s success in enhancing its presence in Africa and attracting support for its policies regarding the Western Sahara issue.
Reduce Mauritania’s fears of incursions from the Polisario: Mauritania has growing concerns regarding repeated incursions by members of the Polisario Front into its territory. The Moroccan-Mauritanian border has witnessed breaches by the front, which reportedly aims to carry out operations against Morocco through these incursions. Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani has repeatedly warned of Polisario incursions into Mauritania. Thus, it seems that Algeria seeks through this new agreement to alleviate Mauritania’s concerns by expanding security and intelligence cooperation with Nouakchott.
Enhance coordination in facing the Russian Wagner Group: Both Algeria and Mauritania have expressed concerns regarding the military movements of the Russian Wagner Group near their borders. Nouakchott has repeatedly warned of the group’s recurrent incursions into Mauritanian territory, allegedly in pursuit of criminal or terrorist elements. Meanwhile, Algeria has shown increasing apprehension regarding the expansion of Wagner’s activities in the Sahel and has condemned the group’s role in supporting the military operations carried out by the Malian army in northern Mali. Therefore, it appears that there are Algerian-Mauritanian agreements to enhance security and intelligence coordination to confront Wagner’s movements along their borders and in the Sahel region.
Forming a regional alliance parallel to Russian-supported security alliances: Algeria and Mauritania are monitoring the movements of the Libyan and Malian armies supported by Russia in the region. The two countries believe that these movements could have negative implications for regional security and stability. Consequently, it can be stated that there are Algerian-Mauritanian agreements to establish a regional security alliance in opposition to the parallel alliances supported by Russia, particularly in the Sahel, especially following the escalation of tensions in Russian-Algerian relations due to their disagreement over resolving the crisis in northern Mali.
Strengthening cooperation in combating terrorism and organized crime: Observers point out that the risks associated with the expansion of terrorist organizations and organized crime across the borders between Algeria and Mauritania compel both countries to coordinate their security and intelligence efforts to prevent these organizations from spreading into their territories, particularly the “Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin” group, as well as their joint efforts to combat gold smuggling and drug trafficking across the borders between the two countries.
Possible Consequences
These Algerian military and security movements are expected to have repercussions on regional interactions in the Maghreb and Sahel regions, as follows:
Increased competition between Algeria and Morocco for Mauritania’s alignment: Algerian military movements are likely to prompt Morocco to offer more incentives and military assistance to Mauritania in an attempt to sway its stance on the autonomy initiative for Western Sahara proposed by Rabat. Mauritania’s neutral stance regarding the conflict between the two countries over the Western Sahara issue further enhances the competition between Algeria and Morocco.
Escalation of Moroccan military operations against the Polisario Front: Morocco exhibits noticeable concern regarding Algeria’s movements towards Mauritania and the international community’s failure to impose a resolution to the conflict, particularly after Morocco rejected UN envoy Stefan de Mistura’s proposal to divide Western Sahara between the conflicting parties. In this context, it cannot be ruled out that Morocco may expand its military operations against the Polisario Front to assert its sovereignty over the entire region.
Heightened tensions in Algeria-Russia relations: Algeria’s move to bolster its opposition to the Russian strategy in the Sahel may impose additional negative repercussions on Russia-Algeria relations, considering the ongoing war supported by Moscow that Algeria opposes in northern Mali, during which the Malian army, backed by the Wagner Group, is engaged with the Azawad movements.
Increase in intelligence activities in the Sahel: The roles of certain international and regional intelligence agencies in the Sahel have intensified. Many reports indicate a rise in French intelligence activities aimed at recruiting informants in the Sahel countries to exert stronger pressure on the ruling regimes in the region. Ukrainian intelligence has also revealed its role in supporting the Azawad movements against the Russian-backed Malian army. Therefore, the signing of the border security agreement between Algeria and Mauritania could lead to increased engagement of Algerian intelligence agencies in the intra-regional intelligence struggle, potentially exacerbating political and security instability.
Conflicting Interests
In conclusion, the agreement between Algeria and Mauritania to enhance border security reflects the state of tension and regional conflict in the Sahel and Maghreb regions, especially with the increasing involvement of international powers such as Russia, Ukraine, and France in intelligence wars in the area, and the clashing visions and interests between Algeria and Russia and the allied forces in the Sahel. Algerian military actions are expected to escalate the intensity of these conflicts, potentially placing the region in various scenarios ranging from military coups to counter-coups, rising separatist tendencies, and national integration crises in countries like Mali, Libya, and others.
