Mozambique, located within the Southern African region, is currently witnessing an escalation of violence associated with internal instability. This surge is directly linked to the assassination of two prominent opposition figures in the capital, Maputo, who belonged to the “Podemos” party. The party indicated that the murders were politically motivated, leading to violent protests against the government. Consequently, police fired tear gas and bullets at protesters in Maputo on October 21, 2024. These developments occur amidst fears from the political opposition that the ruling party’s candidate, Daniel Chapo, may manipulate the results of the presidential elections held on October 9, 2024, in his favor.
Influential Dimensions
Several key dimensions characterize the ongoing political crisis in Mozambique:
Accusations of Electoral Fraud by the Opposition: The opposition candidates have accused the government of manipulating the presidential election results, which are due to be finalized on October 24, 2024. Preliminary results indicate a significant lead for Daniel Chapo, the candidate from the ruling party, FRELIMO. Prominent opposition candidate Mondeline, supported by Podemos, claimed widespread electoral fraud committed by the ruling party, which the latter denied.
Call for Nationwide General Strike by the Opposition: On October 21, 2024, opposition presidential candidate Financio Mondeline called for popular protests against what he described as fraud in the presidential elections held on October 9, 2024. He urged his supporters to peacefully take to the streets in a massive public march. He warned the police against blocking the march, as this could exacerbate the situation. Several hundred people participated in the protests, during which some demonstrators burned the ruling party’s red flags. Mondeline claimed on Facebook that his call for public protest had succeeded, indicating that around 95% of public and private services across the country were suspended, with strikes reported in cities like Maputo, Chimoio, Nampula, and Beira.
Rising Levels of Political Violence: This is evident from the murders of two prominent opposition figures in Maputo who belonged to Podemos—Elvino Dias, an advisor to candidate Mondeline, and Paulo Joambi, a key member and spokesperson of the party. The party confirmed they were shot by armed individuals while traveling in a vehicle on a main road in Maputo. The police used tear gas and live ammunition against protesters gathering at the scene of the killings on October 21, 2024, injuring journalists and a security guard.
International Bodies Confirm Electoral Irregularities: A statement from the European Union monitoring mission on October 22, 2024, revealed evidence of irregularities during vote counting and unjustified changes to election results at polling stations and district levels. This prompted a call for electoral bodies to conduct the counting process transparently and reliably, ensuring traceability of polling results. Meanwhile, the International Republican Institute, based in the United States and which also sent a multinational election observation mission to Mozambique, reported irregularities involving vote buying, inflated voter lists in FRELIMO strongholds, and voter intimidation.
Condemnation by the Mozambican Government of the Political Crisis and Violence: Interior Minister Pascual Ronda condemned and expressed regret over the violent events that led to the deaths of the two opposition figures. He urged relevant institutions, especially the National Criminal Investigation Agency and the Mozambican Police, to swiftly clarify the matters and bring the perpetrators to justice. He also called on anyone with relevant information to cooperate with the government and emphasized the need for calm and to avoid misinformation.
International and Regional Organizations Criticize Rising Political Violence: The United Nations condemned the recent violent events in Mozambique. Secretary-General António Guterres, in an official statement, urged all Mozambicans, including political leaders and their supporters, to exercise calm and restraint, rejecting all forms of violence. This stance was echoed by the African Union on October 21, 2024, when AU Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat condemned the killing of prominent opposition figures in Mozambique, offered condolences to their families, and called for authorities to conduct necessary investigations and bring the culprits to justice. He expressed deep concern over the violence following the elections, particularly the recent killings, and highlighted that the African Union had deployed a short-term election monitoring mission in Mozambique, urging all political parties to maintain utmost calm and restraint.
The European Union also issued a formal statement condemning the murder of the two political figures and called for an immediate, thorough, and transparent investigation to bring those responsible for this heinous crime to justice while emphasizing the importance of upholding fundamental freedoms and political rights. They noted the necessity of strong protective measures for all candidates during the post-election period, adding that their election observation mission remains in the country to assess the ongoing electoral process.
Potential Consequences
The rising political tensions in Mozambique may lead to several potential consequences, including:
Continued Escalation of Opposition Actions Against the Ruling Government: This is evidenced by the political opposition, led by presidential candidate Mondeline, planning to carry out protests. He announced that the nation would cease operations starting from October 24, 2024. Vitamo Singano, the leader of the Revolutionary Democracy Party supporting Mondeline, confirmed blatant electoral fraud and stated a refusal to recognize the ruling FRELIMO party’s victory outright. He expressed his party’s commitment to liberating the state from FRELIMO’s grip by all possible means.
Increased Threats to Strategic Economic Interests: Evidence supporting this includes the storming of the “Montybois” sapphire mine, owned by the Gemfields Group in northeastern Mozambique, by approximately 300 individuals on October 20, 2024. This mine is responsible for about half of the world’s supply of these gemstones, leading to clashes and injuries due to police gunfire. In this context, CEO Sean Gilbertson promoted claims by smuggling unions suggesting that the company had opened its mine for one day of public mining, a claim the company vehemently denied.
Worsening Humanitarian Conditions in the Country: Reports from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees confirm worsening humanitarian conditions in Cabo Delgado province following violence and attacks on civilians since February 2024. Over 70,000 people have been forcibly displaced in areas such as Macomia, Chiure, Mikofi, Mocimboa da Praia, and Moidumbi, with women making up about 90% of the displaced, many of whom are pregnant, and including people with disabilities and the elderly, while children represent over half of the newly displaced individuals.
Furthermore, over 709,000 people have been internally displaced due to violence from non-governmental armed groups and the impacts of the climate crisis. This has led the Commission to emphasize the urgent need for dedicated assistance and protective measures to meet the needs of vulnerable populations.
- Escalating Terrorism Activities in the Northern Region: Mozambique is among the countries most affected by terrorism, ranking 15th globally in the 2024 Global Terrorism Index. The country has been impacted by the terrorist activities of ISIS, particularly in Cabo Delgado province since 2017, which serves as the organization’s main stronghold and the focal point for its attacks. The group conducts attacks on villages and towns in the area, especially in the Chiour and Macumba regions, targeting economic gains due to significant oil and natural gas discoveries, prompting global companies like France’s Total to invest billions to develop these fields.
- Increased International Pressure on the Ruling Government: The condemnation issued by the embassies of five foreign countries in Mozambique—including the United States, Canada, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom—further supports this dynamic. These embassies collectively released a statement denouncing any acts of political violence, calling for a speedy and comprehensive investigation, and urging all citizens, political leaders, state institutions, and interested parties to resolve electoral disputes peacefully and legally, rejecting violence and inflammatory rhetoric.
In conclusion, the increasing pace of political violence surrounding the announcement of the recent presidential election results could plunge the stability of the country’s internal situation to the brink of catastrophe in the near future. This is particularly likely given the expectation of a continued upward trend in popular protest movements led by the political opposition seeking to exert pressure for changing the historical grip of the ruling party on power and governance. Such a scenario could complicate the existing relationship and channels of communication between the ruling FRELIMO party and the political opposition, while also pushing the overall economic and security situation in the country toward potentially dire outcomes.
