The diplomatic crisis between India and Canada, which began in 2023, escalated dramatically when the two countries exchanged the expulsion of diplomats on October 14, 2024. New Delhi announced the expulsion of five senior diplomats from the Canadian embassy after Ottawa claimed that the Indian High Commissioner in Canada might be involved in the assassination of a Sikh separatist leader in mid-2023 in Vancouver. This situation threatens to exacerbate the crisis between India and Canada, affecting the future of their bilateral relations and extending its ramifications to the regional arrangements in the Indo-Pacific.
Multiple Dimensions
The India-Canada relationship faced its most significant crisis on June 18, 2023, when Sikh separatist leader Hardip Singh Nijjar, who immigrated to Canada in 1997 and became a citizen in 2015, was shot dead outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, a suburb of Vancouver. Nijjar was an advocate for the establishment of an independent Sikh state called Khalistan in northern India, and New Delhi classified him as a “terrorist” in 2020, banning the Khalistan movement and labeling discussions about it a “threat to national security.” The movement was designated a “terrorist organization” under India’s Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act. Canada accused India of being involved in the assassination, which India categorically denied, labeling the claims as “absurd and motivated.” The crisis between the two countries then developed as follows:
Exchange of Diplomatic Expulsions: On October 14, 2024, India expelled six Canadian diplomats from its diplomatic mission, including the chargé d’affaires and the first secretary. India demanded their departure before October 19, 2024, and summoned the Canadian chargé d’affaires in New Delhi, Stuart Wheeler, to communicate that Ottawa’s accusation against the Indian High Commissioner regarding Nijjar’s murder was entirely unacceptable. India announced the withdrawal of its diplomats from Canada, stating that it did not trust the current Canadian government’s commitment to ensuring their security and safety. Canada responded by announcing the withdrawal of its diplomats from India as well, raising the diplomatic crisis to a new peak.
Canada Claims to Have Criminal Evidence Against India in the Nijjar Case: In September 2023, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hinted during a parliamentary address that there were credible reports suggesting that Nijjar’s assassination occurred “with Indian involvement.” He emphasized that “any foreign government’s involvement in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil constitutes an unacceptable violation of Canadian sovereignty,” a claim India denied at the time. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement asserting that “the allegations regarding the Indian government’s involvement in any violent acts in Canada are absurd and motivated, as India is a democratic country with a strong commitment to the rule of law.”
In November 2023, U.S. federal prosecutors accused an agent of the Indian government of overseeing a thwarted plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist in New York, suggesting a connection to the Nijjar case. Canada later announced that the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats were “persons of interest” in the ongoing investigation into Nijjar’s murder, which India denied. Canadian police chief Mike Duhem accused India of involvement in intimidation, harassment, extortion, and coercion against Canadian citizens on Canadian soil, linking these crimes to “covert activities involving information gathering and interference in democratic processes,” all of which India dismissed, accusing Trudeau of having a “political agenda” against India.
India Adopts an Escalatory Stance Against Canada: Following its announcement to expel Canadian diplomats on October 14, India adopted an escalatory rhetoric against Canada. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated that “India now reserves the right to take further action in response to the recent efforts by the Canadian government to concoct allegations against Indian diplomats.”
This escalatory rhetoric builds on earlier measures over past months. In September 2023, India warned its citizens against traveling to Canada due to rising anti-India activities, suspended all visa applications for Canadian citizens, and declared that threats against its diplomatic staff had been ignored by Ottawa. India accused Canada of being a “safe haven for terrorists,” and in October 2023, it announced the withdrawal of two-thirds of its diplomats from Canada, specifically recalling 41 diplomats out of 62. Although India requested Canada to reduce its diplomatic staff, Canada rejected the request on the grounds that international treaties do not stipulate reciprocity or set the number of diplomats unilaterally and asserted that Ottawa was “not looking to escalate the crisis with New Delhi.”
Indian Accusations Against Canada for Supporting Sikh Separatism: India accuses Canada of supporting and endorsing the Sikh separatist movement aiming to establish a breakaway state called Khalistan in parts of Indian Punjab. New Delhi has warned, “allowing Canada to serve as a sanctuary for Sikh separatists is detrimental to relations between the two countries.” This crisis began in 2015 when Trudeau assumed office and appointed four Sikh ministers in his cabinet, which prompted objections from New Delhi, claiming that Canada was facilitating “Sikh separatists to carry out provocative actions against India.” In 2022, Canadian Sikhs organized local referendums regarding Sikh independence from India.
In April 2024, Trudeau attended an Indian event in Toronto that displayed “separatist slogans,” leading to a protest by New Delhi, which summoned the Canadian Deputy Ambassador to lodge an official complaint. It is noteworthy that Canada is home to over 770,000 Indian Sikhs, approximately 2% of its total population. Most of them are Canadian citizens with significant influence in society. Canada is the largest home for Sikhs outside Punjab, India, while the total Indian diaspora in Canada exceeds 1.4 million, accounting for 3.7% of the country’s population.
Geopolitical Ramifications
Several regional and international consequences will arise from the escalation of the diplomatic crisis between India and Canada, including:
Decline in Economic Exchange Rates: India is Canada’s tenth-largest trading partner, with a trade volume of USD 9 billion in 2022. Canada is the 17th largest foreign investor in India. However, following Nijjar’s assassination, Ottawa postponed sending its trade mission to India and suspended negotiations for a free trade agreement that began in 2010 and remain unresolved.
India heavily relies on Canadian imports of potash and fertilizers, especially after economic sanctions on Russia, which have restricted imports from there. If the diplomatic crisis continues, there are two possible outcomes: first, a decline in trade between the two countries detrimental to their economies; second, the continuation of trade without entering into new contracts or agreements until the diplomatic crisis is resolved, which also applies to the nuclear cooperation agreement signed between India and Canada in 2009.
Indian Students Reluctant to Study in Canada: India is a significant source of international students in Canada, with approximately 320,000 Indian students representing 40% of all foreign students in Canada. The education sector contributes roughly USD 16.3 billion annually to the Canadian budget, a critical source of income that could be affected if Indian students decide to study in other countries due to the current crisis. Furthermore, India may issue a directive to deny visas to its citizens wishing to travel to Canada.
Increased Accusations Against India for Interfering in Canadian Elections: In January 2024, Canada announced the initiation of a public inquiry concerning alleged “foreign interference” by India in the recent general elections held in 2021 and expressed concerns about potential similar interference in the upcoming parliamentary elections in October 2025. On the other hand, Trudeau aims to leverage the crisis with India to bolster his declining popularity amidst rising living costs, as his Liberal Party prepares for the elections scheduled for October 2025, targeting votes from the Indian Sikh community while using the issue in campaign strategies.
Negative Impact on the Reputation of Both Countries: Despite over a year passing since Nijjar’s assassination, its consequences continue to adversely affect the image of both India and Canada, damaging their ruling elites. Canada promotes narratives of India’s interference in the internal affairs of nations and its involvement in terrorism and assassinations, contradicting India’s claims of being the world’s largest democracy. Moreover, the case highlights India’s persecution of minorities (Muslims and Sikhs) and the rise of Hindu nationalist sentiments and populist rhetoric led by Prime Minister Modi. Conversely, the repeated targeting of Indian Sikhs in Canada will underscore the country’s inadequate security measures, negatively impacting its public safety reputation.
Potential Impact on India-U.S. Relations: Last year (2023), Canada announced American intelligence support in identifying those responsible for Nijjar’s murder, while Washington expressed concern about the escalating tensions between India and Canada, considered allies in countering rising Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific and globally. Washington urged India to collaborate security-wise with Canada to resolve this matter and declared its support for Canada’s investigation into Nijjar’s murder—an action that raised reservations in New Delhi, which accused Washington of bias and double standards in targeting India.
Continued tensions between India and Canada could result in similar strains in India-U.S. relations and hinder Washington’s efforts to counter the rising Chinese influence. Additionally, India may enhance its cooperation with Russia in response to American support for Canada in a matter considered to affect its “national security,” especially since India refrains from severing ties with Moscow or imposing economic sanctions and continues to participate in all international forums alongside Russia, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS.
Impeding Canada’s Strategy to Counter China: In 2022, Canada announced a “strategy to counter China” concerning the Indo-Pacific region, committing additional resources to deal with China, which it labeled as a “disruptive power.” Canada pledged to bolster its military presence in the region, tighten investment laws to protect intellectual property rights, and prevent Chinese companies from controlling supply chains for critical minerals. The Canadian strategy includes a specific section on India’s role in countering China, its strategic importance, and leadership as the largest democracy in the world. Therefore, Canada-India tensions will obstruct the implementation of this strategy, making China the primary beneficiary since such tensions will disrupt the security, political, and economic arrangements among international allies—including Britain, Canada, and the United States—and regional allies, primarily India, in confronting Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Future Prospects
Given the developments mentioned above, the crisis between India and Canada is likely to intensify, especially since it has become a political issue in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Canada. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to continue escalating the crisis until the next elections in 2025 to garner more support from the Sikh Indian community. However, this will lead to various regional and international ramifications that allies of both nations, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, will need to address by mediating to reconcile the views of Canada and India to prevent China and Russia from exploiting this crisis for regional gains.
