What Are the Characteristics of Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Bay of Bengal?
The Bay of Bengal is an integral part of the Indo-Pacific region, whose importance is growing as the countries bordering it become increasingly interested, and as India’s strategic interests expand beyond its traditional focus on South Asia. At the same time, China’s interest in the Indo-Pacific region is also increasing.
The Bay of Bengal is bordered by five countries: Thailand, Indonesia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and India, the world’s most populous country, as well as Bangladesh, the eighth most populous country. Thus, the Bay of Bengal is a thriving natural economic space connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia into a single entity. Geographically, the Bay of Bengal provides access to major sea routes leading to the Strait of Malacca and opening onto the South China Sea.
Increasing Importance:
The growing importance of the Bay of Bengal region can be highlighted as follows:
1. Geopolitical Significance:
The importance of this region lies in its vital sea routes that facilitate international trade across oceans, functioning as “strategic highways.” These routes connect the Middle East, Southeast Asia, East Asia, Europe, and the Americas, playing a crucial role in global economic security. Strategic rivalries in the region revolve around maintaining military and strategic dominance near critical chokepoints along international maritime routes, as nations scramble to protect freedom of navigation or deny it to others. This is in addition to the immense hydrocarbon resources the region possesses.
The Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal are strategically vital to India, as nearly 80% of its crude oil and 95% of its trade is transported by sea, thereby doubling the importance of the adjacent Bay of Bengal.
2. Indian Concerns Over Potential Chinese Dominance:
The spread of Chinese influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has prompted New Delhi to take the threat of a “Chinese encirclement of India” seriously. Five of India’s six neighboring countries in South Asia have joined the BRI: Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. All these countries, except Nepal, are coastal states on the Indian Ocean, with two of them located along the Bay of Bengal. Additionally, Beijing has invested in infrastructure projects and sought to use ports in Bangladesh, the Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. While China’s use of these ports may be for commercial purposes, the possibility of their military use is a constant concern for New Delhi.
Strategic Shifts:
Over the past two decades, the geopolitical landscape of the Indian Ocean has undergone profound changes. China has strengthened its influence in East Asia, while India has emerged as a dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, to contain India, China has invested billions of dollars in South Asian countries, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar. This strategic maneuvering, combined with China’s military presence in the South China Sea, has made the Bay of Bengal a focal point for Washington’s ambitions to assert dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. In light of this, the following points can be highlighted:
1. India’s Desire to Counter Chinese Influence:
India seeks to strengthen its presence in the Bay of Bengal not only to promote regional development but also to counter China’s efforts to increase its influence in India’s backyard. Additionally, the countries of the Bay of Bengal recognize that connectivity and trade have become key to development, driving regional powers to compete for influence in these nations. One indicator of this is the extravagant spending on infrastructure, particularly in ports and energy, by China, India, and Western countries.
2. Sino-Indian Competition Over Port Development:
China and India have begun competing in infrastructure and port development in the Bay of Bengal countries, from building Bangladesh’s first deep-sea port in Matarbari at the top of the bay to the massive expansion of Colombo Port in Sri Lanka, located on key transoceanic shipping routes. China is developing part of Colombo Port, while India’s Adani Group is developing another part of it. Meanwhile, India is leading efforts to revive BIMSTEC (the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation).
Concurrently, Beijing’s involvement in the construction of Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar has challenged the previously undisputed dominance of the Indian Navy in the Bay of Bengal, raising concerns in New Delhi about the potential militarization of Gwadar Port in Pakistan, where China is also investing. In contrast, India has signed an agreement with Iran to manage and develop the Iranian port of Chabahar, which competes with Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, causing concern in both Pakistan and China.
3. Indo-U.S. Cooperation to Contain Chinese Influence:
Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy is seen as the beginning of a U.S.-led alliance aimed at containing China, while China’s strategic infrastructure projects, including seaports such as Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, as part of the “String of Pearls” strategy, aim to contain India and secure a strategic advantage in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s relations with North Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bangladesh, and Myanmar have successfully balanced U.S. and Indian geostrategic maneuvers.
Sino-Indian Rivalry:
The Bay of Bengal holds vital strategic importance due to its geographical proximity, security, and trade significance. India views the bay as its backyard and hopes to restore trust among smaller coastal states like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh by providing support, which may be necessary to protect their waters and promote economic growth. Furthermore, if India wants to remain a security provider, it must establish a stronger presence in the western Indian Ocean region. China, on the other hand, suffers from a geographic disadvantage due to its more distant location but is seeking to increase its presence in the region.
1. New Delhi’s Efforts to Narrow the Naval Gap with China:
India is working to narrow the wide gap between its naval capabilities and those of China. New Delhi has increased its naval budget, with the largest increase in the overall defense budget in 2023 allocated to the navy for modernizing its warships, enhancing its fleet, and integrating new technologies. Additionally, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has approved a proposal from India Ports Global to manage operations at Sittwe Port in Myanmar, which was also built with New Delhi’s assistance.
To demonstrate its strong friendship with Sri Lanka, New Delhi provided over $4 billion in aid when Sri Lanka was plunged into an economic crisis in 2022. Furthermore, in 2023, India’s Adani Group became part of a consortium working to expand the deep-water Western Container Terminal at Colombo Port, which was funded by a $550 million loan from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.
2. Bay of Bengal States Benefiting from Sino-Indian Rivalry:
The Bay of Bengal states are seeking to exploit their growing importance and the Sino-Indian rivalry. Bangladesh, for instance, has maintained a balanced foreign policy with India, China, and the United States. However, over the past decade, China’s large investments in multibillion-dollar projects have aligned with the development agendas of Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This has raised concerns among U.S. policymakers who have observed China’s significant influence over Bangladesh. Furthermore, Sheikh Hasina’s previous proposal to China to build a deep-sea port in Sonadia sparked suspicions in India, Japan, and Pakistan.
In conclusion, while Beijing asserts that its involvement in the Bay of Bengal is purely for commercial interests, it is evident that its activities also have a security dimension. While China invests in economic infrastructure in Bay of Bengal countries, it is also building strong military relationships with them. China has growing security ties with Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, and it is the primary arms supplier to these three countries. In comparison, the trade conducted by the Bay of Bengal states with the outside world today is minimal, despite their proximity to one of the busiest commercial shipping routes in the world, making the region fertile ground for investment, especially in ports and strategic areas.
