Weakening Unity: Potential Impacts of Hungary’s Presidency of the European Union
Hungary’s assumption of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union for the next six months (from July 1 to December 31, 2024) has raised concerns among European circles due to Hungary’s previous consistent practices of obstructing decisions agreed upon by the rest of the EU member states, especially regarding support for Ukraine. This concern is exacerbated by the simultaneous progress of far-right parties in the recent European Parliament elections, which might prompt Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, associated with this trend, to leverage this progress to influence European policies.
Hungarian Program
The duties of the state holding the rotating presidency of the EU include setting certain priorities within the European agenda, organizing discussions among member states, and striving to reach compromises on contentious legislation. Some of the initial features Hungary has attempted to promote regarding its presidency include:
Reassuring European Partners: Some analyses suggest that Hungary’s rotating presidency of the EU Council will not give Orbán the ability to dictate new European policies or amend existing ones. This is not Hungary’s first time in this role, having previously held the position in the first half of 2011. To reassure European partners, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated in May 2024 that “after assuming this position already in 2011, we should not overestimate this presidency.” Moreover, before assuming the presidency, Hungary sought to shed its troublesome stances by lifting its veto on several issues, such as the fourteenth package of sanctions against Russia, the appointment of Dutchman Mark Rutte as Secretary General of NATO, and the official opening of negotiations on Ukraine’s EU membership. The issue of military aid to Kyiv remains contentious, which Budapest wants to leverage to release funds frozen by the European Commission due to Budapest’s failure to meet its commitments regarding the rule of law.
Focusing on Curbing Illegal Immigration: Hungary announced its interest in strengthening European industry, defense, combating illegal immigration, and amending asylum procedures. Hungary proposes going far beyond the Migration and Asylum Pact, which Fidesz party members in the European Parliament voted against, considering it encourages illegal immigration. In June 2024, the European Court of Justice fined the Hungarian government 200 million euros for violating EU asylum policy. Orbán has also lamented on several occasions the decline in the number of white and Christian populations in Europe and the significant increase in the number of Muslims.
Proposing Criteria for EU Membership Expansion: Despite Hungary’s reluctance to accept Ukraine’s entry into the EU, it eventually accepted the official opening of accession negotiations under European pressure. Hungary wants to proceed with EU expansion based on merit, balance, and credibility. Observers believe that Hungary’s approach indirectly aims to exclude Ukraine’s candidacy and open up to Serbia.
Some analyses suggest that Hungary’s rotating presidency will not impact Ukraine’s accession because the 27 member states will not need to make a decision on the matter in the next six months. On June 27, 2024, the Ukrainian newspaper Evropeïska Pravda leaked a list of eleven Hungarian demands for Budapest’s support for Ukraine’s EU membership, including some form of autonomy for the Transcarpathia region, where 15% of the population is of Hungarian origin, and a quota of Hungarian-origin deputies in the Ukrainian parliament.
Raising the Slogan “Make Europe Great Again”: Hungary announced that this slogan would be its theme for the six months of its presidency (MEGA: Make Europe Great Again). This slogan is based on the idea that member states are stronger together and symbolizes that Europe can become an independent global player. Naturally, Hungary tries to emphasize its support for the European project and counter criticism that it seeks to dismantle the union through its policies.
Key Issues
From the early days of Hungary’s presidency, Viktor Orbán’s problematic performance has caused discontent and concerns among Europeans about continuing at the same pace over the next six months. Key criticisms include:
Criticism of Orbán’s Mediation Attempts in the Ukraine War: Orbán surprised all his European partners with a brief tour in July 2024 that included Kyiv, Moscow, Shusha in Azerbaijan, Beijing, and finally Washington to attend the NATO summit. His visits to Moscow, Azerbaijan, and Beijing, which he described as a “peace mission,” were seen as lacking transparency with his European partners since he prepared for them secretly without consulting them. Some European capitals condemned Orbán’s role, considering it a form of parallel diplomacy, emphasizing that during this tour, he only represented his country. They also condemned Orbán’s call for Ukraine to implement a ceasefire to launch peace negotiations with Russia, as this stance is far from the European position and the neutral mediation promised by Hungarian authorities.
Accusations of Orbán Undermining European Unity: Hungarian circles boasted about Orbán’s tour, claiming that in a few days, he managed to meet all the key leaders who will decide the fate of Ukraine and Europe and that Orbán is the only European leader capable of speaking with all parties. Trump supported this tour, calling Orbán a peacemaker. Some analyses suggest that Orbán’s arrival in Moscow allowed Putin to appear with a European leader, breaking the image of the 27 united European leaders on the Ukrainian issue. Russia exploited this visit to suggest that Orbán came to Moscow as a representative of the EU.
In this context, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that appeasement policies would not stop Putin and that unity and determination alone would pave the way for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. Beijing used the Orbán meeting to show that European measures to impose tariffs on Chinese electric cars do not have unanimous support among the 27 EU states. The EU member states will confirm these tariffs by qualified majority in November. By then, Beijing, in collaboration with Hungary, will work to gather enough European countries to overturn this measure.
Accusations of Budapest Exploiting the Transitional Phase in European Institutions: Some explain Orbán’s unexpected initiatives as his desire to exploit the relative vacuum phase that EU institutions are currently going through, such as the newly elected European Parliament and the Commission, which is being assembled. Orbán took advantage of this transitional phase to intensify his movements while no outgoing European officials could effectively represent the EU abroad. He wanted to suggest that he leads the EU, not just Hungary.
Orbán’s Use of the EU Presidency to Repair His Domestic Image: These circumstances provided an opportunity for Orbán to showcase his new international status to his people, especially after facing active internal opposition led by Péter Márki-Zay, who managed to garner nearly 30% of the votes in the European elections. Orbán wanted to claim that he is the only European who recently met with Zelensky, Putin, and Xi Jinping and that he is at the heart of international diplomacy despite Hungary being a small country.
Orbán’s Efforts to Strengthen Far-Right Influence in the European Parliament: In July 2024, Orbán helped launch a group within the European Parliament called “Patriots for Europe” (P4E), which included his Fidesz party members (10 seats), French National Rally members (30 seats), and other European parties, chaired by Frenchman Jordan Bardella. Orbán relies on this new far-right group to support his visions, making it the third-largest bloc in the European Parliament with 84 seats.
Continued Closeness Between Orbán and Former US President Trump: During his recent visit to the US, Orbán met with former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Hungary’s slogan “Make Europe Great Again” indicates the closeness between Orbán and Trump, which led Orbán to replicate Trump’s 2016 campaign slogan.
Both leaders oppose increasing military support for Ukraine, with Trump not far from obstructing the $61 billion aid package for Ukraine in the US Congress, adopted in April 2024. Since 2022, Orbán has blocked European aid to Ukraine, using it as a bargaining chip to lift financial sanctions imposed by the EU on his country. Some believe that Trump’s potential victory in November 2024, coinciding with Hungary’s rotating presidency, is highly significant, as European nationalists tend to align behind Trump.
European Response
European reactions ranged from reminding Orbán of the unified European stance and his lack of authority to negotiate on behalf of the EU to other measures summarized as follows:
European Leaders Condemning Orbán’s Moves: Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas considered Orbán’s exploitation of the EU presidency to sow confusion, but the EU will remain united behind Ukraine against Russian aggression. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed the EU’s clear stance in condemning Russia’s aggressive war and providing sufficient support to Ukraine. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell stated that Orbán’s participation in the Organization of Turkic States in Azerbaijan was exclusively within bilateral relations between Hungary and the organization.
European Council President Charles Michel, whose term is ending, stated that the rotating EU presidency does not have the mandate to deal with Russia on behalf of the EU. The European Council is clear: Russia is the aggressor, and Ukraine is the victim, and no discussion about Ukraine can occur without Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a boycott of the Hungarian presidency, stating that the Commission decided not to travel to Budapest in light of recent developments and that the Commission would only be represented by staff, not commissioners, at conferences organized in Hungary. The traditional visit of the Commissioners to Hungary was also canceled, marking the first time such a boycott against the rotating EU presidency was declared.
European Diplomatic Pressure on Budapest to Explain Its Policies: A meeting of the permanent representatives of EU member states was held in Brussels on July 10 to discuss the Hungarian issue. These representatives asked Hungary for clarifications on Viktor Orb
án’s initiatives and evidence that he did not claim to represent the EU to Vladimir Putin. Hungary tried to convince other states that the visits were purely bilateral and aimed only at assessing ceasefire conditions. Some sources indicate that Hungary’s response convinced only the Slovak ambassador, while the remaining 25 ambassadors found Hungary’s arguments unconvincing.
Discussing Shortening Hungary’s EU Presidency: European treaties do not provide for excluding any state from rotating the EU Council presidency every six months. This exception occurred only once when the United Kingdom did not assume this role in 2017, based on its request after the Brexit vote. Some calls advocate for shortening Hungary’s presidency and handing it over to Poland before December 31, such as the Renew Europe and Green groups. However, no EU member state has made such a request, which is legally sensitive. Some diplomatic circles believe that given the strong warning sent to Hungary, it will be difficult for it to take new contentious measures.
In conclusion, it took Hungary only a few days of its rotating presidency to lose what little credibility it had left with its European partners. Orbán seems to be waiting for Donald Trump’s return to the White House, who confirmed he could end the Ukraine war in a few days if elected. Until November, attention remains on how Hungary will handle the renewal of sanctions on Russia, voted on every six months (the last vote was in June), and how it will address the final tariff decision on Chinese electric cars in November.
