Washington’s Calculations: Messages Behind the Targeting of “Abu Abd al-Rahman al-Makki,” a Leader in “Hurras al-Din”
On August 23, 2024, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the assassination of a prominent leader in the “Hurras al-Din” group, Abu Abd al-Rahman al-Makki, in southern Idlib. The Central Command provided some details regarding the operation, noting that al-Makki was a member of the Shura Council of “Hurras al-Din,” a group affiliated with al-Qaeda, and a senior leader responsible for overseeing terrorist operations from Syria.
The announcement of al-Makki’s assassination comes amid growing concerns about the resurgence of terrorist activities in Syria. It also occurs in the context of continuous enhancement of military capabilities at U.S. bases in Syria, driven by fears of a potential military confrontation between Iran and Israel, which has increased the state of readiness among U.S. forces in the region. These forces might be vulnerable to attacks in light of this potential escalation between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
Different Objectives
Through the operation targeting al-Makki, Washington aimed to achieve several objectives, which can be summarized as follows:
Sending Internal Messages Before the U.S. Presidential Elections: It seems that the administration of President Joe Biden seeks to leverage the elimination of al-Makki domestically, especially with the U.S. presidential elections approaching on November 5, 2024. Therefore, the elimination of al-Makki carries symbolic significance within the U.S., where the Democratic Party desires to bolster its political standing by demonstrating the Democratic administrations’ ability to neutralize terrorist groups that have long targeted American interests. From the administration’s perspective, such operations can enhance the chances of the party’s candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the face of former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s nominee.
Disrupting the Rise of Terrorist Organizations in the Region: Part of the rationale behind targeting al-Makki lies in the U.S.’s desire to neutralize any potential resurgence of terrorist organizations, especially given recent high-profile operations carried out by these groups in Syria and Iraq. Notably, some of these groups, particularly “Hurras al-Din,” have attempted in recent months to exploit the focus on the war in Gaza and escalating tensions on the Lebanon front to conduct significant operations in conflict zones, targeting American interests, particularly on the Syrian front. CENTCOM emphasized that “Hurras al-Din is a force linked to al-Qaeda, based in Syria, and shares al-Qaeda’s global ambitions to carry out attacks against American and Western interests.”
Enhancing U.S. Security Role in the Region: The current U.S. focus on eliminating the leadership of terrorist groups in Syria is tied to its desire to strengthen its role as a global power with an undeniable security and military presence in the region. This is particularly pertinent after Baghdad agreed on August 15, 2024, to extend the mission of the international coalition to combat ISIS. Northern Syria is one of the key areas for U.S. military presence, and thus, clearing it of terrorist organizations and armed groups hostile to Washington is crucial for securing American operations aimed at bolstering its presence in Syrian geography, which serves as a gateway to expanding U.S. influence in the broader Middle East.
Deepening Divisions Within Terrorist and Armed Groups: Washington may also be aiming to widen the rifts between terrorist and armed groups in northern Syria through the assassination of “Abu Abd al-Rahman al-Makki,” potentially disrupting the security situation in the region. This could escalate local tensions between “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) and “Hurras al-Din,” especially as “Hurras al-Din” accuses HTS of secretly collaborating with the U.S.-led coalition and using this relationship to eliminate its rival groups, particularly al-Qaeda affiliates.
Multiple Implications
The U.S. operation targeting the prominent leader in “Hurras al-Din,” Abu Abd al-Rahman al-Makki, carries several significant implications:
Possible Involvement of “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham”: It is noteworthy that the targeting of al-Makki occurred in southern Idlib, an area under the control and influence of “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,” which has increasingly clashed with “Hurras al-Din,” an al-Qaeda affiliate. This suggests, according to some estimates, a possible role for HTS in al-Makki’s assassination. This scenario is supported by several indicators, including the clear tension between “Hurras al-Din” and HTS in recent years, evident in al-Makki’s detention in HTS prisons from June 2020 until April 2022. Additionally, “Hurras al-Din” has accused HTS of being behind the assassinations of its leaders and members and of providing intelligence to the international coalition to eliminate the group.
Demonstrating the Ability to Neutralize Terrorists: Through this operation, Washington aimed to demonstrate its ability to neutralize the activities of terrorist and armed groups in Syria, while emphasizing that its focus on developments in the Israeli war in Gaza, the potential military confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, and its commitment to supporting Israel would not hinder its efforts to continue targeting individuals on its terrorist watchlists, particularly leaders of “Hurras al-Din.” Recently, the U.S. has managed to solidify its military presence in the region following Iraq’s decision on August 15, 2024, to delay the end of the international coalition’s mission to combat ISIS.
Emphasis on the Use of Smart Weapons: In its efforts to minimize potential military or humanitarian consequences of operations targeting terrorist leaders in Syria, some assessments suggest that U.S. forces conducted the al-Makki strike with precision, using smart munitions that allow for operations with minimal civilian casualties and collateral damage. Accordingly, Washington used an MQ-9 drone belonging to the international coalition, which targeted the motorcycle al-Makki was riding with Hellfire missiles, known for their accuracy and ability to strike the target without causing additional casualties.
Declining Influence of “Hurras al-Din”: Over the past three years, “Hurras al-Din” has experienced successive severe setbacks, starting with the arrest of several of its members in 2020, including al-Makki, who were placed under house arrest in HTS prisons in Idlib. This has led to a gradual decline in its operational and territorial control, weakening the group’s ability to maintain strict security oversight over its leaders and diminishing its capability to protect its leadership. Multiple reports indicate that CENTCOM forces were able to execute the operation with ease and exceptional speed. As a result, the targeting of al-Makki is expected to increase pressure on terrorist organizations and armed groups in the region, particularly al-Qaeda, of which “Hurras al-Din” is a branch. Therefore, the timing of al-Makki’s assassination could impact the cohesion of “Hurras al-Din,” possibly leading it to splinter into smaller terrorist groups.
Weakening the Organization
In conclusion, the assassination of al-Makki is likely to have significant negative repercussions for “Hurras al-Din,” a loss that extends beyond merely weakening the group’s presence and effectiveness in northern Syria. It raises doubts about the organization’s ability to maintain cohesion in the face of potential disintegration or, at the very least, falling under the control and influence of “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,” which dominates a major part of Syria’s Idlib province. It is possible that Washington may resort to more high-profile operations of this nature in the near future to demonstrate its control over the Syrian geography and neutralize any potential threats to Israel, particularly if a confrontation between Tehran, its regional proxies, and Israel occurs.
