John Dramani Mahama, the opposition candidate and leader of the main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) in Ghana, has decisively won the presidential race, which witnessed intense competition and was a critical test for democracy in the country. He secured 56.6% of the total votes cast, while Mahamudu Bawumia, the Vice President of Ghana and candidate for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), came in second with 41%. This result prompted Bawumia to concede defeat, making Mahama the sixth president of Ghana. Additionally, his party significantly secured the legislative battle by obtaining 185 seats in the Ghanaian Parliament, according to local estimates.
These elections are of great importance, as many in Ghanaian society hope that the results will lead to the emergence of a ruling elite capable of addressing the numerous challenges facing the country, primarily the economic crisis that was a major factor in the ruling party’s declining popularity. This, in turn, affected the standing of its candidate in the recent elections, highlighting the challenges awaiting the new president and his government amid high expectations from a broad segment of the population affected by the ongoing economic turmoil.
Key Dimensions
The key aspects of the electoral scene in the Ghanaian presidential race can be outlined as follows:
Victory for Political Opposition: Expectations had pointed to the ruling NPP’s defeat in the general elections, especially since President Akufo-Addo’s second and final term has been marked by increased divisions. The opposition highlighted the decline in his approval ratings after failing to deliver on his campaign promises, driving the demand for change. Voters in Ghana chose to give Mahama, the former president from 2012 to 2016, another chance over his rival Bawumia. A survey by the research group “Global Info Analytics,” based in Accra, predicted Mahama’s presidential win due to his previous effective economic performance, despite the public’s rejection of him in 2017 over corruption allegations against his government. This opposition victory reflects the progress of democracy in Ghana, which is regarded as a bastion of democracy in Africa and the West amid a region characterized by security and political crises. Bawumia has affirmed his support for the new president Mahama, emphasizing the importance of a peaceful transition for the country’s stability and progress, and promising to ensure a smooth transfer of power. This victory also indicates a new wave of opposition resurgence in presidential races globally, including in Africa, as seen in Senegal and Kenya.
Failure of the Ruling Party to Maintain Power: The decline in public trust in the ruling party in recent years has shifted the electoral mood away from its presidential candidate. Mahamudu Bawumia could not extend the ruling party’s control to a third presidential term, following two terms served by the outgoing President Akufo-Addo. Criticism of the Akufo-Addo government due to its economic policies played a significant role in Bawumia’s electoral loss to the opposition candidate, despite Bawumia’s extensive experience as an economist and former governor of the Bank of Ghana.
Weak Political Participation: Although over 18 million voters were registered to cast their ballots at 40,976 polling stations across the country, initial unofficial reports indicate a noticeable decline in voter turnout, with many opting not to participate. According to Ghana Web, Mahama received 3,441,784 votes (56.6% of total votes), while Bawumia garnered 2,419,046 votes (41%), reflecting participation of approximately 5 million voters out of 18.8 million registered by the National Election Commission of Ghana.
Increased Security Measures to Secure the Elections: Ghanaian security authorities took all necessary precautions to ensure peace, law, and order before, during, and after the elections. Interior Minister Henry Quartey mandated the temporary closure of all land borders as part of the measures to ensure the integrity of the general elections. The Ghanaian armed forces deployed some of their troops to support the police in the electoral process, limiting their role to logistic support.
Dominance of a Peaceful Electoral Process: Despite some logistical challenges faced by polling stations across the country, the Electoral Commission of Ghana confirmed the reliability and transparency of the electoral process, especially with the accreditation of around 10,000 journalists and granting media access to the national vote counting center for the first time. The commission reported that over 99% of polling stations opened on time, with election materials delivered as scheduled, noting that the electoral process was largely peaceful, except for some areas experiencing violence, which resulted in one fatality.
Role of Youth in Shaping Election Results: Young voters are seen as a critical demographic for competing candidates, especially since there are over 10 million youths aged between 15 and 35 among the 18.8 million registered voters. Mahama successfully appealed to this sector as a substantial voting block by focusing on economic issues that resonate with them, particularly their desire for political change and support for Mahama as a means to address the nation’s economic challenges, such as rising living costs, currency depreciation, high unemployment rates, and corruption.
Impact of Swing Regions on Electoral Outcomes: Swing regions like Greater Accra and Central Region play a crucial role in tipping the election results towards one candidate over another. Historically, these regions have leaned toward the NDC (John Mahama) against the NPP (Mahamudu Bawumia), although neither party has won more than 52% of the vote in these areas.
Multiple Challenges Ahead
President Mahama faces substantial challenges in his new role, particularly economic, political, and security-related issues amid a tumultuous regional context. Key contentious issues include:
National Reconciliation: Mahama may build on the quick positive stance taken by Bawumia, who acknowledged his defeat and vowed not to contest the final results to prevent rising tensions evident before the elections. Bawumia urged his supporters to remain calm during celebrations, avoiding potential clashes and violence, while calling on all citizens to unite to confront the economic challenges facing the country.
Regaining Voter Trust: A fundamental challenge for Mahama during his first term will be restoring voter confidence in the ruling elite and overcoming widespread disillusionment among many sectors of Ghanaian society. A survey by Afrobarometer earlier this year indicated that 82% of Ghanaians feel their country is headed in the wrong direction. Mahama can reinforce trust through immediate action on the commitments he made during his campaign and outlining strategic plans to address the country’s economic crises, particularly since his campaign focused on attracting young voters by pledging to address their challenges.
Managing External Debt Repayment: Ghana currently faces record-high public debt levels, having defaulted on most of its external debts totaling about $30 billion in 2022 due to the economic crisis that has driven up prices for basic commodities, services, fuels, and food. This poses significant pressure on the new government.
Negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for an Economic Rescue Plan: Ghana is the fourth most indebted African country to the IMF, and the new administration will likely need to engage with the Fund’s program despite Mahama’s pledges to renegotiate terms related to the economic rescue plan, which adds to economic pressures on the Ghanaian population.
Tackling Gold Mining Crises: A significant challenge is illegal gold mining, locally termed “Galamsey,” which raises concerns among voters as it affects the nation’s gold revenue, where Ghana ranks first in Africa and sixth globally in production. This issue has sparked protests and criticism against the outgoing Akufo-Addo government.
Addressing Challenges in the Energy and Cocoa Industries:
There is growing disappointment among young Ghanaians due to financial crises in the energy sector, which has debts nearing 2 billion. Additionally, the collapse of the cocoa industry has exacerbated the situation after international banks declined Ghana’s request for a 1.5 billion loan to purchase up to 650,000 metric tons of cocoa for the 2024/2025 season. These issues present significant challenges for Mahama’s administration.
Countering Potential Security Threats: Ghana is perceived as a stability oasis in a politically and security-challenged region, facing escalating threats from terrorist organizations based in countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria, along with political tensions stemming from military coups in the region since 2020. While Ghana’s security situation remains stable and devoid of deep-rooted threats, potential risks linger as some terrorist groups aim to extend their influence into stable West African nations, including Ghana.
Overall, Ghana continues to bolster its position as one of Africa’s strongest democracies, highlighted by the recent general elections that saw the opposition rise to power amid expectations of a smooth transition that could enhance political and security stability in the country. However, economic issues remain a priority for Mahama’s new government, laden with challenges and crises that require careful management in the first three months of his presidency, posing a significant challenge to deliver proposals and demonstrate capabilities in addressing the difficulties facing Ghana, especially as they impact the living conditions of a large segment of the population, raising concerns about potential protests that may destabilize political and security order in the country.
