“Turning East”: Motives and Implications of Tunisia’s Closer Ties with Iran and China

Tunisia has adopted a pragmatic foreign policy aimed at strengthening its relationships with several regional and international powers, including Iran and China, in an effort to develop its existing partnerships at various levels, especially politically and economically.

Key Indicators:

There are several indicators pointing to Tunisia’s political regime adopting a foreign policy that seeks closer political, economic, and security ties with some regional and international powers associated with the Eastern bloc. The most notable are:

Said’s Visit to China: Tunisian President Kais Saied made an official visit to China from May 30 to June 5, 2024, to participate in the 10th Ministerial Conference of the China-Arab Cooperation Forum. In January, Saied met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tunisia, where both agreed on the importance of enhancing Sino-Tunisian relations in various fields, including politics, economy (agriculture, infrastructure, renewable energy), health, and sports. Additionally, in May, the Deputy Secretary-General of the Chinese Communist Party, Qiu Fengqi, visited Tunisia. Earlier this year, the two countries celebrated the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Tunisia and Beijing.

Visa Exemption for Iranians: Tunisia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a decision to exempt Iranian passport holders from needing visas to enter Tunisia starting June 15, 2024. This decision also applies to Iraqi passport holders and came after President Kais Saied’s visit to Iran to offer condolences for the passing of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. During this visit, Saied met with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, for the first time. While Iran had already exempted Tunisians from needing visas earlier in February, this decision signals Tunisia’s intent to diversify its international relationships beyond Western powers. Prior to Raisi’s death, the two presidents had agreed to organize reciprocal state visits.

Specific Objectives:

Tunisia’s recent pivot toward the East (Iran, China) seeks to achieve a range of political and economic goals, including:

Establishing Strategic Alliances: Tunisia’s current foreign policy aims to develop its bilateral relationships across various sectors with influential regional and global powers. Since 1990, Tunisia and Iran formed a joint committee to enhance mutual interests, signing over 20 protocols in strategic areas. Tunisia also seeks to execute signed agreements with China across multiple sectors, aiming to form strategic alliances in the near future.

Maximizing Economic Gains: By strengthening its bilateral relationships with Iran and China, Tunisia hopes to achieve several economic benefits:

• China is Tunisia’s fourth-largest trading partner after France, Italy, and Germany, with bilateral trade worth around $6 billion. Tunisia aims to build economic partnerships with China and improve trade relations, having signed cooperation agreements during Saied’s visit in areas such as sustainable development, technology, and infrastructure.
• Some analysts believe Saied’s visit to China has not yet yielded significant economic results, particularly regarding Tunisia’s trade deficit with China, valued at around $2 billion. However, others argue that the existing agreements and Tunisia’s participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative provide opportunities for future economic gains.
• Tunisia also hopes to benefit economically from its political rapprochement with Iran, particularly by becoming a gateway for Iranian goods, including electric vehicles, to African markets. Iran also seeks to enhance its trade with Tunisia, which amounted to about $12 billion in 2017.

Countering Western Pressure on Tunisia: Tunisia’s pivot towards the East also aims to leverage these relationships to reduce pressure from Western countries and international institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). By cultivating stronger ties with China and Iran, Tunisia hopes to strengthen its negotiating position with the IMF and reduce its reliance on Western aid.

Key Political Signals:

Tunisia’s growing closeness with Iran and China carries significant political implications, including:

Pragmatic Policy: Tunisia’s foreign policy reflects a pragmatic approach, aiming to maximize political and economic gains while asserting its independence from foreign interference. This stance is particularly relevant as President Saied prepares for upcoming elections.

Diversifying Partners: Tunisia’s Eastern pivot signals its desire to diversify its international partnerships, particularly economically, as it seeks to rejuvenate its fragile economy.

Political Maneuvering: Tunisia’s strengthened relations with Iran and China can also be seen as a way to resist European pressure, particularly as Tunisia faces tough IMF loan conditions. Saied’s refusal to implement austerity measures, such as reducing government subsidies and cutting public sector wages, has strained relations with Europe.

Breaking International Isolation: Tunisia’s rapprochement with Iran may also offer Iran a way to mitigate its international isolation, as it faces sanctions and strained relations with Western countries.

In summary, Tunisia’s shift towards the East reflects its desire to diversify partnerships, form strategic alliances, and assert independence in its foreign policy, without abandoning its long-standing ties with European countries.