TurkStream: How a Pipeline Revived Russian Gas Flows to Europe

In the wake of the 2022 energy crisis, Europe embarked on a mission to wean itself off Russian gas. Yet, amidst geopolitical turmoil and shifting alliances, a surprising reality has emerged: the TurkStream pipeline has become a crucial artery for Russian gas, flowing directly into the heart of Europe. This hidden dependency, despite official declarations, raises fundamental questions about energy security, political maneuvering, and the complex interplay between supply and demand. Let’s delve into how this pipeline has reshaped the European energy landscape.

Factors Driving TurkStream’s Dominance:

Several converging factors have solidified TurkStream’s position as the primary route for Russian gas into Southern and Central Europe:

Strategic Substitute After Northern Route Disruptions: The sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in 2022 effectively shut down key northern routes for Russian gas delivery. With the viability of these routes compromised and lacking German political support, TurkStream became the only remaining option for delivering Russian gas to the EU. The pipeline’s importance further amplified after the Ukrainian transit route was shut down, leaving TurkStream as the most efficient solution. Russia invested heavily in TurkStream to offset the losses from its northern infrastructure, while Europe hesitated to re-evaluate Nord Stream 2, despite potential discussions about its use as part of a peace agreement.

Turkey’s Neutrality: A Strategic Advantage: Turkey, as a non-EU nation, enjoys a unique position outside the stringent European energy regulations. Russia has capitalized on this advantage, transforming Turkey into a secure gateway for gas to Southern and Central Europe, shielded from direct political conflicts with Brussels. Some analysts have characterized the energy cooperation between Russia and Turkey as “strategic.” Turkey emerges as a guarantor of stable gas flows, benefiting from its strong ties with Russia and its limited involvement in Western sanctions. This strategic geopolitical positioning grants TurkStream an advantage that other routes lack.

Ready Infrastructure and Connections to Southeast Europe: TurkStream spans 930 kilometers under the Black Sea from Anapa, Russia, to Kiyiköy, Turkey, connecting to a pipeline network that extends through Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, and eventually Slovakia. This readily available network enabled Central European nations to quickly resume Russian gas imports after Ukrainian supply disruptions. Several countries, including Bulgaria, invested in bolstering the “Balkan Stream” pipeline, an overland extension of TurkStream, stabilizing gas flows to the region. Furthermore, the pipeline leverages existing infrastructure previously used for other lines, reducing costs and improving technical efficiency.

Supportive European Governments and Gas Cooperation: Certain EU member states, including Hungary, Slovakia, and Serbia, have emerged as supporters of ongoing gas collaboration with Russia. These nations resisted a complete boycott of Russian gas and signed long-term agreements with Gazprom. TurkStream played a key role in fulfilling these contracts. Governments, such as the Slovakian government led by Robert Fico, expressed a desire to circumvent sanctions and tensions with Brussels to maintain gas flows at lower prices. This stance has created a division within the EU, with some opposing the European Commission’s policies to sever ties with Russia.

Lack of Immediately Available, Competitive Alternatives: Despite EU efforts to diversify energy sources, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States and Qatar have been unable to compete with Russian gas in terms of price or supply consistency. EU reports show that gas delivered via TurkStream is sold at discounts of 13-15% compared to alternatives, attracting nations struggling with energy costs. Furthermore, planned LNG terminals in Eastern European countries are not yet ready to offer an immediate alternative, making TurkStream the most economically and logistically viable option given the winter season and industrial and heating needs.

TurkStream’s Role in Reshaping the European Energy Market: The rise of TurkStream as a major conduit for Russian gas has redrawn power dynamics within the European energy market. This infrastructure provides Russia with the opportunity to maintain a foothold in Eastern and Southern Europe, despite an overall decline in its market share. In turn, the countries connected to the pipeline, such as Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia, have gained stronger negotiating power within the EU, benefiting from their access to regular supplies at a lower price. This situation has led to differing approaches to the energy issue between Eastern and Western European countries, with a divergence on the feasibility of completely severing ties with Russian gas. Additionally, TurkStream offers the EU a tactical option to avoid unexpected crises, even if not officially recognized in Brussels’ policies, making it an unacknowledged but influential element in European energy strategy.

Consequences and Impact of Reliance on TurkStream:

The impact of Europe’s reliance on TurkStream is evident in several key areas:

Surging Gas Volumes through the Pipeline: The first months of 2025 witnessed a rapid increase in Russian gas volumes flowing through TurkStream. According to Reuters estimates, May 2025 alone saw a 10.3% increase compared to April, with an average daily flow of 46 million cubic meters, up from 41.7 million in the previous month. February 2025 also registered record figures, with daily flows exceeding 56.6 million cubic meters. The pipeline’s average utilization rate in February was 12% higher than in December 2024. This surge demonstrates the pipeline’s capacity to meet rising demand, particularly after the halt of Ukrainian supply routes on January 1, 2025.

Offsetting Supply Shortfalls in Specific European Markets: TurkStream has helped to compensate for a large portion of the supply deficit caused by the cessation of transit through Ukraine, particularly in countries like Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia. SPP, the largest gas supplier in Slovakia, confirmed its resumption of Russian gas imports from February 2025 via Hungary, utilizing pipelines connected to TurkStream, with the anticipation of doubled volumes starting in April. Data reveals that these volumes have aided in refilling storage facilities and mitigating the energy crisis these countries faced as winter approached. This signifies a real redistribution of Russian gas routes in Europe.

Continued Russian Gas Supply Amidst Tensions and Sanctions: Despite European and American sanctions imposed on Russia, as well as security tensions that have even targeted TurkStream infrastructure itself, the gas pipeline has continued to operate without interruption. Moscow announced that the TurkStream’s “Russkaya” facility was targeted by drone attacks attributed to Ukraine in January and February 2025, yet pumping operations were not halted. Hungary viewed these attacks as a violation of its sovereignty, given its dependence on the pipeline for energy security. Despite the security threats, TurkStream has demonstrated operational resilience and infrastructure durability, allowing it to maintain supply.

New Investments to Expand Pipeline Capacity at the Turkish-Bulgarian Border: In response to growing demand and increased reliance on TurkStream, Bulgaria announced negotiations with American investors, including the Elliott Management fund, to expand the pipeline’s capacity at the border with Turkey. Specifically, data from European companies specializing in energy transportation revealed that Russian gas shipments through TurkStream to Europe via the Turkish border with Bulgaria increased by 27% in January and February of this year, compared to the same period in 2024. This step aims to support gas flows towards Central Europe while maintaining Bulgaria’s position as a vital corridor. The Bulgarian government stated that it does not intend to sell the infrastructure but is seeking investments to develop it without violating the European legal framework. This initiative is seen as an indication that countries in Eastern and Central Europe view TurkStream as a strategic asset worthy of expansion rather than abandonment.

Increased Russian Gas Revenue: Despite a reduction in exported Russian gas volumes compared to pre-2022 levels, TurkStream has provided Moscow with a consistent channel for generating significant revenue. Russia has exported over 63 billion cubic meters of gas through the pipeline since its launch, generating revenues exceeding 20 billion euros. The pipeline now represents the entirety of Russia’s remaining pipeline exports to Europe following the cessation of Nord Stream 1, 2, and Ukrainian routes, making it a primary source of income for Gazprom and the Russian state amid Western oil bans and restrictions on the marketing of LNG.

Relative Gas Price Reductions through Russian Discounts: In an effort to preserve its market share, Russia, through Gazprom, has offered significant discounts to countries importing gas via TurkStream. European data indicates that the price of Russian gas supplied through this route in 2024 was 13-15% lower compared to alternative markets. Although these discounts do not always translate into immediate reductions for end consumers, they have given European companies, particularly in Hungary and Slovakia, a strong incentive to maintain Russian supplies. This policy has also contributed to stabilizing market prices in some Eastern European countries compared to their Western counterparts.

Conclusion:

The trajectory of reliance on TurkStream reveals that the issue transcends mere technical gas transit; it has become a reflection of a complex web of intertwined interests between geography, politics, and energy. Despite European pressure to disengage from Moscow, this pipeline emerges as a hidden bridge, reconnecting what policy has sought to divide. Its impact extends beyond the economic dimension, affecting balances within the EU itself – between an approach grounded in energy reality and another seeking strategic independence. TurkStream also raises fundamental questions about the vulnerability of European alternatives and the limits of relying on LNG. Therefore, it appears that the future of European energy security will be shaped not only by announced plans but also by field realities dictated by geography and the choices of individual nations.