Climate change has emerged as one of the most central issues on the global agenda in recent years, garnering increasing attention from countries and international organizations. This focus is due to the serious threats posed by climate change to human security, particularly as its negative impacts exacerbate, affecting not only security but also worsening drought rates, expanding desertification, and intensifying water shortages. The consequences of this phenomenon have become more severe and complex due to its direct connection to food and water security issues, economic and political stability, as well as escalating conflicts and terrorism, especially in Africa. It is worth noting that Africa’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions does not exceed 4%, yet it remains one of the most affected regions by the impacts of climate change. The most significant effects include droughts, the disruption of rainfall patterns, and desertification. These challenges lead to increased numbers of refugees and displaced persons due to environmental factors, putting pressure on infrastructure and economic resources, exposing communities to greater political and social instability, and exacerbating ethnic and sectarian conflicts.
On January 20, 2025, newly-elected U.S. President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, a step that triggered widespread concern globally, particularly in Africa, one of the regions most affected by the repercussions of climate change. Although Africa’s contributions to global emissions are minimal, it faces serious environmental, economic, and social consequences due to rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and the increased frequency of natural disasters such as droughts and floods. The U.S. withdrawal, being one of the largest emitting countries, weakened the international community’s commitment to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, placing Africa in a particularly difficult position. With diminishing financial and technical support, African countries’ capacity to adapt to climate change is extremely limited, threatening food and water security, and exacerbating poverty and conflicts in the region.
In this context, this article aims to clarify the future of climate change within the African continent, the implications of Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Africa, and how it has influenced its efforts to confront the increasing climate challenges, through several key themes, which will be addressed as follows:
First: The Impact of U.S. Withdrawal from Paris on Stability in Africa
The announcement by new U.S. President Donald Trump in January 2025, following his formal assumption of office, regarding the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, sends a clear message prioritizing the U.S. economy over global environmental commitments. However, the repercussions of this decision are not confined to environmental aspects; they extend to security and political dimensions, especially in fragile areas such as Africa. One of the most significant repercussions is the withdrawal’s effect on the growth of climate change-related terrorist threats, a phenomenon that has become increasingly evident in recent years. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue; it is a multiplier of security threats, especially in regions suffering from poor governance and political instability. In Africa, where the vast majority of the population depends on agriculture and natural resources, climate change exacerbates poverty, drought, and desertification, creating a fertile environment for the spread of violent extremism. Terrorist groups like Boko Haram in West Africa or Al-Shabaab in East Africa exploit these conditions to recruit individuals who have lost their livelihoods due to climate change.
The Paris Climate Agreement represented a global framework for uniting efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support the most affected countries by climate change, especially in Africa. With the withdrawal of the U.S., being one of the largest emitting countries and a major funder of climate efforts, the financial resources available to support climate adaptation projects in Africa have diminished. This decline in international funding means that many African nations will be unable to implement climate adaptation projects, such as improving water resource management or developing drought-resistant agriculture. Consequently, environmental and economic crises will worsen, further intensifying poverty and unemployment, which are major factors fueling violent extremism.
In areas already suffering from resource scarcity, such as the African Sahel, climate change exacerbates conflicts over water and agricultural land. These conflicts can swiftly escalate into armed clashes, especially in the absence of effective governance to manage resources justly. Terrorist groups relying on chaos and instability exploit these conditions to expand their influence and recruit more individuals. For example, in the Lake Chad region, declining water levels due to climate change have led to agricultural land deterioration, forcing thousands to migrate. This massive migration has created a security vacuum that Boko Haram has seized to expand its activities and recruit individuals who have lost their livelihoods.
The Global Terrorism Index 2022 has highlighted that some of these terrorist groups, like Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA), exploit environmental degradation and climate crises to expand their influence and increase recruitment, especially in the Lake Chad area. According to the report, approximately 30 million people in Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon are competing for dwindling water resources, creating an ideal environment for terrorist groups to exploit these situations. Terrorists impose taxes on water and use the need for it to force communities to provide recruits or even engage in forced recruitment. Drought and desertification have also led to large-scale displacement, increasing the vulnerability of local communities and facilitating armed groups’ portrayal as an alternative to local authorities by providing security and basic services.
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement was not merely a political decision; it was a strong message to the world that the U.S. would not fully assume its responsibility in combating climate change. This message could encourage other countries to relax their climate commitments, leading to a slowdown in global efforts to reduce emissions. This slowdown means a continued worsening of the impacts of climate change, consequently increasing pressures on vulnerable communities in Africa.
Second: Implications of U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Climate Financing in Africa
The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has had significant repercussions on global climate financing, particularly for developing countries in Africa and other regions most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The U.S. had pledged to provide $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), aimed at assisting developing countries in mitigating carbon emissions and adapting to climate change. With the U.S. withdrawal, a large portion of this funding was halted, negatively impacting many African countries’ ability to implement renewable energy projects and build infrastructure capable of withstanding climate changes. The most notable implications for Africa can be summarized as follows:
Decline in International Funding for Climate Projects in Africa The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement represents a direct threat to funding directed at environmental and developmental projects on the African continent. Washington was one of the supporting nations of the Green Climate Fund, a key tool for providing financial resources to developing countries to fund climate adaptation projects and reduce carbon emissions. With its withdrawal, Africa is now facing a financial gap that may hinder the implementation of renewable energy projects, anti-desertification efforts, and efficient natural resource management. Furthermore, the financial allocations promised during the climate conference in the UAE (COP29), which were supposed to reach $300 billion annually by 2035, may be jeopardized due to the absence of U.S. contributions. Consequently, the anticipated funding shortfall may slow down energy transition plans in Africa, increasing the economic burdens on African countries and heightening the risks of environmental disasters that require significant investments to mitigate their negative impacts.
Negative Impact on Energy Transition Initiatives on the African Continent The United States played a crucial role in supporting energy transition programs in Africa, particularly through its participation in international partnerships like the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), which assist countries in transitioning to renewable energy sources. Countries like South Africa and Senegal have received tangible support through these initiatives, while similar programs are being developed in Egypt, Morocco, and Ivory Coast. However, with the U.S. withdrawal, these projects are expected to face financial and technical challenges, potentially leading to delays or even total cancellations. Additionally, the absence of the U.S. from the climate arena will impact major financial institutions like the World Bank’s ability to provide adequate support for clean energy programs, which may push some African countries back towards reliance on fossil fuels instead of renewable energy, increasing harmful emissions and exacerbating the climate crisis.
Weakening Africa’s Position in International Climate Negotiations The U.S. withdrawal from the agreement represents a significant setback for international efforts to combat climate change, particularly affecting Africa, which relies heavily on financial and technical support from major countries to adapt to extreme climate phenomena. The U.S. presence in negotiations has been a major factor in pressuring other industrialized countries to uphold their climate pledges. In its absence, African countries may find it difficult to demand additional funding to compensate for losses incurred due to climate change, drought, and rising temperatures. Furthermore, U.S. withdrawal may encourage other countries to backtrack on their climate commitments or delay their implementation, thereby weakening global momentum towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and placing African nations in an even weaker position during future conference of parties.
Impact of Withdrawal on African Financial Institutions and International Funding Partnerships Major financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund play a vital role in providing essential funding for climate projects in Africa. In recent years, these institutions have undergone positive transformations by adopting policies that support clean energy and fund environmental sustainability projects. However, with the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, its influence within these institutions may decline, which could lead to a redirection of funding priorities towards other projects that do not necessarily benefit Africa’s climate efforts. Regional financial institutions, like the African Development Bank, may find it challenging to compensate for this shortfall, forcing them to seek alternative funding sources such as partnerships with China or the European Union. This situation could lead to instability in climate financing strategies across the continent, making it harder to achieve sustainable development goals by 2030.
Increasing Investment in Fossil Fuels and Slowing Transition to Clean Energy With the U.S. adopting policies that encourage revitalizing the oil, gas, and coal sectors, global energy markets may experience increased investments in fossil fuels, which will have a direct impact on Africa. Many African nations have benefited from the global trend towards financing clean energy projects, but with the new shifts, investing in fossil fuel infrastructure may become more attractive in terms of profitability and financial returns, hindering efforts to reduce emissions. Furthermore, some energy transition projects reliant on foreign funding are expected to slow down, which may lead to increased reliance on traditional energy sources and delay the implementation of the sustainable solutions urgently needed on the African continent.
Stagnation of African Regional Cooperation in Confronting Climate Change African countries have long relied on regional cooperation to implement climate change mitigation strategies, such as the African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI), which aims to enhance investments in clean energy sources. However, with the decline in financial and technical support resulting from the U.S. withdrawal, these initiatives may face challenges in executing their environmental plans, potentially leading to slow implementation of major environmental projects or even their cancellation. Additionally, African nations may become more inclined towards individual policies rather than joint cooperation, each country striving to secure necessary funding on its own, thereby weakening the unified African stance against climate change and diminishing the effectiveness of regional solutions.
Impact on African Countries’ Climate Policies With the U.S. withdrawal, some African nations may begin to reassess their climate commitments, particularly if they perceive that major industrialized countries are no longer upholding the agreement as required. This scenario could reduce global enthusiasm towards the Paris Agreement, as some nations may decide to slow down their commitments or even ease their environmental obligations due to the lack of international support and pressure. Moreover, the U.S. withdrawal could inspire other countries, like Argentina and Brazil, to consider similar steps, potentially weakening the agreement on a global scale and making climate change a more significant threat to the environment and global economy. Furthermore, the risks for the most vulnerable communities could increase: African countries, especially those in the Sahel and Sahara regions, are already grappling with the impacts of climate change, such as drought and desertification. The lack of funding has made it more challenging to address these challenges, placing rural communities and the poor at greater risk.
Third: Climate Change and the Escalation of Humanitarian Crises in Africa
As instability continues to grow within the African continent due to the increasing impacts of drought waves that have struck some areas, particularly the Horn of Africa—where they have led to heightened rates of “internal” displacement, reaching nearly 2 million people within Somalia and Ethiopia—millions more refugees have been forced to cross their national borders, as seen in Somalia and South Sudan, towards other regions in Kenya and Ethiopia. This situation reflects the magnitude of the disaster afflicting the African continent. Some UN reports have indicated that the effects of climate change on the region are becoming diverse, manifesting as droughts and increases in temperature or changes in rainfall patterns, which threaten the lives and livelihoods of African citizens.
Sudan remains vulnerable to the threats of climate change, exacerbated by rising drought rates, altered rainfall patterns, and growing environmental threats amidst ongoing conflicts between the army and rapid support forces, which have destroyed a significant part of Sudan’s infrastructure and damaged some oil facilities, potentially leading to a major environmental disaster. Additionally, conflict in Sudan could reduce the country’s arable land area, turning it into barren land unfit for farming, which may increase internal conflicts among residents and displaced individuals over fragile agricultural land due to environmental degradation, further amplifying tribal and political divisions in the country. These conditions underscore the urgent need for increased international and regional efforts to address climate change and its devastating consequences across different regions of the African continent.
On another note, the UN has confirmed that many of the countries most affected by these climatic phenomena suffer from security fragility; 8 out of the top 15 climate-affected countries host peacekeeping missions; Mali stands as a prominent example, suffering from a complex mix of internal conflicts and the effects of climate change.
Armed groups on the continent have benefited from the continuing instability resulting from climate change, particularly in countries unable to provide basic needs for their citizens. In another context, water resource scarcity in Cameroon has led to increased local conflicts between fishermen and farmers, resulting in the displacement of nearly 100,000 individuals both within and outside the country. Meanwhile, the Lake Chad basin is facing severe negative repercussions due to acute food insecurity amidst rising conflicts in the region, compounded by the adverse effects of climate change, leading to a struggle among nearly 30 million people over water resources within the lake.
In the sub-Saharan African region, around 400 million people are currently suffering from a lack of drinking water, with nearly 330 million individuals expected to face water scarcity by 2025, while approximately 460 million are likely to experience water stress.
Fourth: International Efforts to Confront Climate Change
Addressing climate change has become one of the top priorities of the United Nations’ sustainable development agenda, known as the “2030 Agenda”; the thirteenth goal therein, “Climate Action,” emphasizes the need to enhance capacities as the impact of climate change poses significant challenges to African development, resilience against climate-related disasters, and the need for serious and robust actions to mitigate climate change effects. In recent years, international efforts have increased to develop strategies that reduce the climate’s impact on countries, focusing on reducing toxic greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite Africa contributing very little to global greenhouse gas emissions, it remains one of the most affected continents, facing enormous challenges such as droughts, floods, and food insecurity leading to famine. Nevertheless, the continent’s capacity to confront these challenges is still very limited due to a lack of funding and international support, contextualizing the advanced countries’ allocations directed towards supporting Africa against climate change, which are still considerably less than what the continent needs to adapt to difficult conditions. One of the most notable efforts in this context was the establishment of the “Loss and Damage Fund” during the climate conference (COP 27) held in Sharm El-Sheikh in November 2022, intended to compensate impoverished countries for climate-related damages. However, discussions concerning the operational frameworks of this fund and the conditions for benefiting from it are still ongoing.
As environmental and climate challenges grow, the threats to the African continent’s sustainability are expected to extend their impact beyond its borders, potentially prompting some industrialized nations to curb carbon emissions, reduce pressures on the African climate, and advance towards appropriate solutions in tackling the dangers posed by climate threats. Recently, climate diplomacy has emerged as a key tool in the global response to climate challenges, fostering dialogue between national interests and international cooperation to forge joint responses. Prominent examples include the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while focusing on support for impoverished nations. Moreover, the discourse surrounding climate justice plays a vital role in highlighting the challenges of the African continent and enhancing its climate security.
This climate justice discourse has underscored the importance of enhancing a climate security approach centered within Africa. Additionally, some African nations—especially in the Horn of Africa, such as Somalia and Sudan—can tackle climate changes by:
- Increasing Financial Support: Through international aid provided and allocated.
- Enhancing Regional Cooperation: By supporting the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and formulating effective strategies.
- Implementing Effective Climate Policies: To adapt to increasing climate challenges.
Fifth: The Future of Climate Change on the Continent in Light of the Africa Agenda 2063
The Africa Agenda 2063 represents an essential continental framework for the African Union, built on seven primary aspirations, with the most notable being “Africa enjoying prosperous growth based on inclusive and sustainable development,” through which the African continent seeks to tackle rapidly escalating climate threats and promote African development. In light of this, there is a necessity to update the Agenda 2063 to confront climate change challenges and transition to more sustainable pathways to bolster the continent’s aspirations towards achieving future agenda goals.
Africa faces significant challenges due to climate change, which not only hinders development but also threatens the achievement of Agenda 2063’s targets. Insufficient responses to the climate crisis raise concerns about increasing carbon emissions due to population growth and developmental progress. As the continent aims to improve living standards, this may involve an estimated additional 297 million tons of carbon emissions by 2043, increasing its share of global emissions from 9% to 12% and potentially to 30% by 2063.
With regard to future carbon emissions forecasts, there are growing fears that inadequate responses to this crisis could lead to far-reaching negative effects, especially given that Africa’s development is tied to increases in carbon emissions, as witnessed in other parts of the world. The rapid population increase and escalating demand for improved living conditions may lead to projections indicating that by 2030, emissions from Africa could surpass those of the European Union, with carbon emissions in the continent anticipated to rise significantly. Achieving the goals of Agenda 2063 is expected to result in approximately 297 million additional tons of carbon emissions by 2043, raising Africa’s contribution to global emissions from 9% to about 12%, and might reach 30% by 2063.
Regarding the increase in emissions from the African continent compared to the world, analyses suggest that Africa will witness a substantial rise in carbon emissions such that:
- It will exceed U.S. emissions by 2039.
- It will surpass India’s emissions by 2046.
- It will exceed China’s emissions by 2056.
This increase threatens global efforts to limit warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, emphasizing the urgent need for timely interventions and more ambitious strategies. To prevent obstructing the Africa Agenda 2063, risk management must be integrated into core strategies by:
- Assessing Risks: Identifying vulnerabilities and anticipating environmental impacts.
- Enhancing Infrastructure: Building structures capable of withstanding severe climatic phenomena.
- Agricultural Planning: Selecting crops and water management strategies that adapt to the climate.
- Diversifying Energy Sources: Promoting reliance on renewable energy and improving its adaptability to climate changes.
Furthermore, it is crucial to strengthen the capacities of local communities and institutions to confront climate risks and create sustainable livelihoods. Effective governance should be promoted to ensure an effective response to climate changes and mitigate conflicts arising from resource scarcity, making it evident that achieving the ambitious developmental goals of Agenda 2063 is directly and indirectly affected by climate change. Scenarios with substantial growth potential, such as expanding manufacturing and applying the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, may be associated with a significant increase in carbon emissions. This necessitates an indispensable integration of development objectives and climate policies.
Thus, climate change management remains a central issue for achieving human security, supporting environmental stability, and ensuring sustainable development in the African continent.
African nations are working to increase international contributions, aiming for approximately 1.3trillionannuallyby2030,including1.3trillionannuallyby2030,including220 billion annually for the least developed countries, with advanced nations making efforts to broaden the contributor base to include nations that have experienced notable economic growth since 1992, such as China and oil-producing nations. Moreover, African countries are focusing more on financing, especially since they require new and additional funding under favorable terms that do not increase debt burdens. They are advocating for an expansion of risk-related foreign exchange instruments, debt relief, and local currency lending.
Potential Scenarios Following Washington’s Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement
The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement could have wide-reaching implications for global policy, the environment, and the economy. As the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases globally, its withdrawal may impact international efforts to combat climate change. Below are the notable potential scenarios:
Emergence of an Increased Need for Self-Reliance among African Nations: The U.S. withdrawal could drive African countries to bolster self-reliance in clean energy and natural resource management, potentially seeing increased local and regional investments in renewable energy projects as African nations enhance regional cooperation to tackle climate challenges, such as establishing joint clean energy projects and managing water resources.
Negative Economic Consequences for Africa: Particularly given that Africa is one of the continents most affected by climate change, many of its inhabitants rely on agriculture negatively impacted by climatic changes. The U.S. withdrawal may weaken global emissions reduction efforts, potentially worsening climate effects like droughts and floods, thereby impacting local economies. Furthermore, the U.S. withdrawal may heighten economic pressures on African nations requiring support to implement climate adaptation projects.
Decline in Funding Allocated for Climate Projects in Africa: With the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, Africa may suffer severely from the loss of U.S. funding for climate initiatives. The U.S. contributed billions of dollars to the Green Climate Fund, relied upon by African nations to finance renewable energy, combat desertification, and develop sustainable infrastructure. Without this support, key projects like a just energy transition in South Africa and Senegal and drought adaptation plans in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia may face delays due to resource shortages. This would make African nations more vulnerable to environmental disasters and limit their ability to combat climate change.
Diminished Role of International Financial Institutions in Supporting Africa’s Energy Transition: The United States wields considerable influence in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. With its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, these institutions may reduce their funding for African climate projects. The World Bank had begun offering concessionary loans to support the closure of coal plants and transition to renewable energy, but with reduced U.S. engagement, these loans may decrease. This could mean that some countries, like Nigeria and South Africa, might revert to relying on coal and fossil fuels instead of advancing clean energy development. Projects like solar power stations in North Africa may slow, hindering the continent’s efforts to transition towards a sustainable future.
Reduced Commitment by African Countries to the Paris Climate Agreement: The withdrawal of the U.S., the second-largest emitter globally, may encourage some African nations to step back from their climate commitments. Many African governments rely on international support to finance emissions reduction plans, and if this funding is no longer available, these nations might prioritize other issues over fulfilling their environmental commitments. For instance, some countries that had planned to implement environmental taxes or provide incentives for clean energy might backtrack on these policies. Additionally, the absence of U.S. leadership could weaken global momentum in climate negotiations, making African nations less inclined to implement their environmental commitments, potentially leading to further environmental degradation on the continent.
Dissolution of African Regional Cooperation in Addressing Climate Change: Numerous African climate initiatives depend on international funding, such as the African Renewable Energy Initiative, aimed at expanding clean energy usage across the continent. With the U.S. withdrawal, African nations may find themselves compelled to act unilaterally rather than collaboratively on climate projects. For instance, electricity interconnection plans between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia could be hampered by funding shortages, impacting the stability of power grids. Similarly, some nations, such as Nigeria and Angola, might pivot towards developing oil and gas projects instead of clean energy, curtailing regional cooperation and weakening Africa’s ability to negotiate as a unified bloc in global climate negotiations.
In conclusion, the future of climate change in Africa presents an existential challenge that requires a comprehensive and decisive response. Given the current scenarios, the continent may face dire consequences if climate risk management is not integrated into all aspects of developmental planning. However, opportunities remain to turn these challenges into catalysts for progress, as Africa can lead international efforts in developing innovative and sustainable development models through investments in renewable energy, enhancing climate adaptation in agriculture and infrastructure, and adopting green technologies that reduce emissions. Strengthening regional cooperation through agreements, like the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, can serve as an effective means of resource sharing and building resilience. Nevertheless, climate changes on the continent will continue to serve as a significant driver for armed groups, and neglecting these issues will contribute to the enhancement of their activities, subsequently leading to increased economic, political, and social pressures on Africa, potentially heightening instability on the continent. African nations must approach climate change threats as dynamic factors that encompass security, economic, and developmental pathways within the continent.
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement will yield negative implications for Africa, affecting global emissions reduction efforts and weakening financial and technical support provided to developing countries. However, Africa has the capability to adapt to these challenges by enhancing regional and international cooperation, adopting sustainable technologies, and pushing for more effective climate policies. Ultimately, combating climate change necessitates global commitment, as the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement threatens the Loss and Damage Fund, depriving Africa of essential compensation to confront climate disasters; the funding shortfall will exacerbate humanitarian crises and delay reconstruction efforts and adaptation to climate changes.
References
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